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Don't confuse disagreement on the severity of its consequences with disbelief in the phenomenon itself. For the coronavirus, it's an infection with a mortality
by manfredo 7y ago
Don't confuse disagreement on the severity of its consequences with disbelief in the phenomenon itself. For the coronavirus, it's an infection with a mortality rate ~20x higher[1] than the flu concentrated among people older than working age. If we want to reduce as much loss of life as possible then yeah we should shut down the country. But it doesn't present a threat to the long term success of society (heck, a cynic might even point out that retirees dying in greater numbers will make social security more affordable), and so many do conclude that decisive action is unwarranted.
1. The most in-depth writeup I've found reports a fatality rate of ~5x higher after more widespread testing: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/12/how-deadly-is-the-new-coronavirus https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/12/how-dead...
- svara 7y agoThe view you are suggesting works, in the sense that it is logically consistent. However, I very much doubt that this is the calculation that went through very many people's heads, say, 3 weeks ago. I think proof of this is that in all places that have substantial outbreaks, containment measures are getting heavier and heavier with increasing numbers of cases. If that's what you were going to do anyway, then the sum cost (in money, time, human effort) would have been lower if you had started earlier. This is because exponential growth with a factor of 1.33 is still manageable if you have 10 cases, but turns into an overwhelming tsunami if you have 10000.