4 ms·
Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Using the worst case scenario so far as meaning "worst possible scenario" is a fallacy (consider that the pa
by chillacy 7y ago
Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Using the worst case scenario so far as meaning "worst possible scenario" is a fallacy (consider that the past "worst case" was already surprising to people back then because it was worse than the "past's past").
Not to imply we should panic over a low probability event, just pointing out that we should be careful about Kurtosis.
- lend000 7y agoNote that I wrote "worst likely scenario" not "worst possible scenario." Worst possible scenario is not really useful for short to mid term planning in an unconstrained event space (gamma ray burst or massive meteor hits Earth, etc.).