Here is a discussion of some of the numbers and models. It's in German but I guess deepL should give a reasonable translation. One part of an answer that I extr

Here is a discussion of some of the numbers and models. It's in German but I guess deepL should give a reasonable translation. One part of an answer that I extract from this article is that it's complicated. People do have more sophisticated models (see some of the ones mentioned in the article), the issue is these require more parameter inputs with significant uncertainties (we really don't have enough information on the virus yet). if some government would come out and say this is the model we are using you would immediately have lots of discussion about the validity and how everything would be easy peasy if we just change this parameter. Another aspect is probably that accurate modelling is not the primary focus right now.