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Isn't this just survivorship bias? If the doomsayers were right, then you wouldn't be here to be smug about their predictions being wrong. As a thought experim
by ForHackernews 7y ago
Isn't this just survivorship bias? If the doomsayers were right, then you wouldn't be here to be smug about their predictions being wrong.
As a thought experiment, consider what would happen if a planet-killing asteroid were inbound. The doom-sayers would still sound like cranks ("in the 1970s they said the population bomb would kill us all") and normal life would continue right up until the point that everyone died.
Humanity is arrogant about its ability to survive crises because it has taken action and survived previous major crises, but the first time we get it really wrong will also be the last time.
- rwallace 7y agoYou could use that argument to prove Earth is about to be demolished to make way for a hyperspace bypass. I mean sure, there is actual evidence that global warming is real whereas Vogons are not, but if you want to make a case, you need to point to the actual evidence, not just handwave about survivorship bias.
- ForHackernews 7y agoMy point is that dismissing "doomsayers" just because we've averted actual doom thus far is specious.