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So you're saying that a total shut down of the economy which could cause a depression is whats needed to deal with this virus. And thats no reason to be worried

So you're saying that a total shut down of the economy which could cause a depression is whats needed to deal with this virus. And thats no reason to be worried ? A lot of people are staring at economic ruin. We are staring at potentially multiple quarters of negative GDP growth. I don't think this has happened for a long time. And money printing won't fix it like it usually does.

JeremyNT 7y ago
> So you're saying that a total shut down of the economy which could cause a depression is whats needed to deal with this virus. And thats no reason to be worried ? Yeah. China covered this up at first, but it responded dramatically and authoritatively once the threat was understood. Being an authoritarian state, their power structures allow them to effectively restrict movement and manage the entire economy to limit the spread, and where they sit now is very nearly a best case scenario for what a response could look like barring that initial delay. And yet, even so, it will still result in countless second/third/nth order effects that will cause devastating public health and financial ramifications (the extent of which will only be slowly realized over time). In comparison, the US is incredibly poorly situated. This country is a mishmash of loosely coupled quazi-independent governments, and its public health apparatus is mostly just de-facto run by the "invisible hand" of the market. The Federal Government has no ability to respond in the way China did, even assuming the people in control of it understood the potential severity here (which as yet they have not.)
- mattrp 7y ago
  I’m perfectly fine with our mishmash. The US has a strong economy, smart people and smart solutions will emerge.
  - discodave 7y ago
    Are you OK if we check back with you in a couple of months?
    - mattrp 7y ago
      Of course. Keep in mind, I'm not saying that this situation isn't serious. I'm saying I have sufficient faith in the framework of the United States, even in light of the virus, that I'm not willing to trade it for the frameworks of China and South Korea. I'm also not saying necessarily anything derogative about either of those countries.
      - taurath 7y ago
        Not to be blasé, but its clear you're not a wage worker. Many people will be out of a job and be unable to pay rent. I have several friends who are ALREADY in the process of being laid off as businesses around Seattle practically shutter. We need a rent/mortgage holiday for both people and businesses in order to keep things afloat.
        rayhendricks 7y ago
        I’m perfectly fine with a >=50% loss in the market if it gets us to consider national paid sick leave and Medicare for all seriously. We need to seriously reconsider the incentives of those who even if tested positive for Coronavirus would still not be able to miss work. This is coming from someone whose nominal 401k portfolio is going down a Tesla per day. Why am I not upset?? — the infrastructure is still there; iMessage still works, AWS still works, there are still oil rigs in operation, it is just the amount of money we are willing to pay for securities has changed.
        taurath 7y ago
        The primary organizing unit of the united states is the Business, not the family nor the individual.
        stjohnswarts 7y ago
        The problems is those people who don't like paid sick leave and m4a are zealots and it will take more than a pandemic to change their minds. They mind agree that government should help out when it comes to depression era issues but otherwise they don't want anything like that in "normal" economic times. I think the progressive mindset that most people have on reddit and HN are really only 10-20% of the population.
  - enchiridion 7y ago
    I've seen this argument too. The thing is, we need a war time level response in manufacturing to prevent massive death. That response will probably not happen until the current system is somewhat strained. 6 days after that point, there will be twice the number of cases. I have no doubt we could respond to this given more time, but it is simply moving to quickly. We need national quarantines now.
  - fallingfrog 7y ago
    I’ve never been so tempted to violate the HN rules of polite discourse
davidw 7y ago
I think a "rip the bandaid off" approach makes more sense. If everyone "stayed the fuck home" for two weeks, it would really help contain the spread. Better that than to prolong things, like Italy did, and then make everyone stay home anyway. https://staythefuckhome.com/ https://staythefuckhome.com/
- thewarrior 7y ago
  We should do that but the effects of that on the global economy scare me to be frank. Anyone who says that there's nothing to be worried about here simply hasn't thought through all the consequences we're facing.
  - davidw 7y ago
    It's going to hurt. But if we don't do it, the thing spreads, and we're forced to do it anyway a few weeks later, like Italy. Korea seems to be the best example of what has worked well, but I don't know a lot of the details. Seems like a good example to follow, but we're falling down in the US - we can't even test people.
  - enchiridion 7y ago
    To be honest, I don't think it will be too bad. Just speculating here, but events like this only really hurt when they occur asymmetrically (think 9/11 or housing crisis) Everyone is going to be rocked by this at basically the same time.
  - taurath 7y ago
    What about an economic pause for 2 months? All rent/mortgage payments are paused, you only have to deal with the most critical costs (food, utilities) for a short period of time and then the economy resumes as best it can after the threat is gone? Of course, its not like it'll go away after just 2 months.
    - davidw 7y ago
      We told our tenants not to bother with next month's rent.
lozenge 7y ago
Does your happiness track GDP?

JeremyNT 7y ago

> So you're saying that a total shut down of the economy which could cause a depression is whats needed to deal with this virus. And thats no reason to be worried ? Yeah. China covered this up at first, but it responded dramatically and authoritatively once the threat was understood. Being an authoritarian state, their power structures allow them to effectively restrict movement and manage the entire economy to limit the spread, and where they sit now is very nearly a best case scenario for what a response could look like barring that initial delay. And yet, even so, it will still result in countless second/third/nth order effects that will cause devastating public health and financial ramifications (the extent of which will only be slowly realized over time). In comparison, the US is incredibly poorly situated. This country is a mishmash of loosely coupled quazi-independent governments, and its public health apparatus is mostly just de-facto run by the "invisible hand" of the market. The Federal Government has no ability to respond in the way China did, even assuming the people in control of it understood the potential severity here (which as yet they have not.)

mattrp 7y ago
I’m perfectly fine with our mishmash. The US has a strong economy, smart people and smart solutions will emerge.
- discodave 7y ago
  Are you OK if we check back with you in a couple of months?
  - mattrp 7y ago
    Of course. Keep in mind, I'm not saying that this situation isn't serious. I'm saying I have sufficient faith in the framework of the United States, even in light of the virus, that I'm not willing to trade it for the frameworks of China and South Korea. I'm also not saying necessarily anything derogative about either of those countries.
    - taurath 7y ago
      Not to be blasé, but its clear you're not a wage worker. Many people will be out of a job and be unable to pay rent. I have several friends who are ALREADY in the process of being laid off as businesses around Seattle practically shutter. We need a rent/mortgage holiday for both people and businesses in order to keep things afloat.
      - rayhendricks 7y ago
        I’m perfectly fine with a >=50% loss in the market if it gets us to consider national paid sick leave and Medicare for all seriously. We need to seriously reconsider the incentives of those who even if tested positive for Coronavirus would still not be able to miss work. This is coming from someone whose nominal 401k portfolio is going down a Tesla per day. Why am I not upset?? — the infrastructure is still there; iMessage still works, AWS still works, there are still oil rigs in operation, it is just the amount of money we are willing to pay for securities has changed.
        taurath 7y ago
        The primary organizing unit of the united states is the Business, not the family nor the individual.
        stjohnswarts 7y ago
        The problems is those people who don't like paid sick leave and m4a are zealots and it will take more than a pandemic to change their minds. They mind agree that government should help out when it comes to depression era issues but otherwise they don't want anything like that in "normal" economic times. I think the progressive mindset that most people have on reddit and HN are really only 10-20% of the population.
- enchiridion 7y ago
  I've seen this argument too. The thing is, we need a war time level response in manufacturing to prevent massive death. That response will probably not happen until the current system is somewhat strained. 6 days after that point, there will be twice the number of cases. I have no doubt we could respond to this given more time, but it is simply moving to quickly. We need national quarantines now.
- fallingfrog 7y ago
  I’ve never been so tempted to violate the HN rules of polite discourse

davidw 7y ago

I think a "rip the bandaid off" approach makes more sense. If everyone "stayed the fuck home" for two weeks, it would really help contain the spread. Better that than to prolong things, like Italy did, and then make everyone stay home anyway. https://staythefuckhome.com/ https://staythefuckhome.com/

thewarrior 7y ago
We should do that but the effects of that on the global economy scare me to be frank. Anyone who says that there's nothing to be worried about here simply hasn't thought through all the consequences we're facing.
- davidw 7y ago
  It's going to hurt. But if we don't do it, the thing spreads, and we're forced to do it anyway a few weeks later, like Italy. Korea seems to be the best example of what has worked well, but I don't know a lot of the details. Seems like a good example to follow, but we're falling down in the US - we can't even test people.
- enchiridion 7y ago
  To be honest, I don't think it will be too bad. Just speculating here, but events like this only really hurt when they occur asymmetrically (think 9/11 or housing crisis) Everyone is going to be rocked by this at basically the same time.
- taurath 7y ago
  What about an economic pause for 2 months? All rent/mortgage payments are paused, you only have to deal with the most critical costs (food, utilities) for a short period of time and then the economy resumes as best it can after the threat is gone? Of course, its not like it'll go away after just 2 months.
  - davidw 7y ago
    We told our tenants not to bother with next month's rent.

lozenge 7y ago

Does your happiness track GDP?