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I've also found myself musing on a similar question, but one where you may have a different temporal perspective at this particular moment: In six months, are w

by jerf 7y ago

I've also found myself musing on a similar question, but one where you may have a different temporal perspective at this particular moment: In six months, are we going to collectively believe that the Coronavirus was nothing and we massively overreacted to it? Because if we do react strongly, and it does largely contain the virus, that will also be "proof" (quote-unquote) that it wasn't anything we needed to be so proactive about in the first place. Unsurprisingly, humans are not good at accounting for black swan events, and even less so for averted ones.

idlewords 7y ago
Neither the current pandemic nor Y2K really fit the definition of a black swan event, since they were completely predictable (and predicted).
- jerf 7y ago
  In my opinion (emphasis opinion), "black swan" includes the concept of timing... that a pandemic would occur is inevitable, but you have no idea on the timing. Market crashes are inevitable, but you have no idea on the timing. Volcanic eruptions are inevitable, but you have no idea on the timing. etc. Things that are inevitable only when you encompass time spans longer than a human life (it has been approximately one and a half average human lifespans since the previous pandemic) may be predictable at that large aggregate scale, but on useful scales they are not. Or, to put it another way, if you've been shorting the market since 1918 for the next pandemic crash, you went bankrupt a long time ago. Y2K is only a black swan for those not in the industry, since that one is obviously intrinsically timing based. The UNIX timestamp equivalent is also equally predictable to you and I, but to the rest of the world will seem even more arbitrary if it's still a problem by then. (At least Y2K was visibly obviously special on the normal human calendar.) But I wouldn't claim the term for that; call it a bit of sloppiness in my writing.
Seenso 7y ago
> Because if we do react strongly, and it does largely contain the virus, that will also be "proof" (quote-unquote) that it wasn't anything we needed to be so proactive about in the first place. Even if every other country has Y2K levels of success containing the Coronavirus, we can still point skeptics at the example of places like Italy to prove it was a real threat.
nitwit005 7y ago
I assume that we'll have a fairly decent idea as to what worked, and what didn't, as the differing responses mean we're effectively carrying out multiple experiments at once.

by jerf 7y ago

idlewords 7y ago

Neither the current pandemic nor Y2K really fit the definition of a black swan event, since they were completely predictable (and predicted).

jerf 7y ago
In my opinion (emphasis opinion), "black swan" includes the concept of timing... that a pandemic would occur is inevitable, but you have no idea on the timing. Market crashes are inevitable, but you have no idea on the timing. Volcanic eruptions are inevitable, but you have no idea on the timing. etc. Things that are inevitable only when you encompass time spans longer than a human life (it has been approximately one and a half average human lifespans since the previous pandemic) may be predictable at that large aggregate scale, but on useful scales they are not. Or, to put it another way, if you've been shorting the market since 1918 for the next pandemic crash, you went bankrupt a long time ago. Y2K is only a black swan for those not in the industry, since that one is obviously intrinsically timing based. The UNIX timestamp equivalent is also equally predictable to you and I, but to the rest of the world will seem even more arbitrary if it's still a problem by then. (At least Y2K was visibly obviously special on the normal human calendar.) But I wouldn't claim the term for that; call it a bit of sloppiness in my writing.

Seenso 7y ago

> Because if we do react strongly, and it does largely contain the virus, that will also be "proof" (quote-unquote) that it wasn't anything we needed to be so proactive about in the first place. Even if every other country has Y2K levels of success containing the Coronavirus, we can still point skeptics at the example of places like Italy to prove it was a real threat.

nitwit005 7y ago

I assume that we'll have a fairly decent idea as to what worked, and what didn't, as the differing responses mean we're effectively carrying out multiple experiments at once.