4 ms·

Do not "buy the dip". It will go down more, like in 2008.

r0fl 7y ago
It seems everyone is a financial guru these days. I wonder what these people are doing on their keyboards. Why aren't they all on gold plated yachts?
- jansan 7y ago
  Are there no keyboards on gold plated yachts?
  - samstave 7y ago
    I cant even afford a gold plated keyboard. :-(
    - TAForObvReasons 7y ago
      https://www.tomshardware.com/news/24k-gold-keyboard https://www.tomshardware.com/news/24k-gold-keyboard
      - marvel_boy 7y ago
        Just ordered !
    - econcon 7y ago
      Isn't buying silver plated better due to germicidal properties of silver?
- Jorge1o1 7y ago
  I've pulled off some pretty great trades in my time, for example, I had the conviction that the Sprint merger was going to get approved and I bought Sprint stock in January, nearly doubled my money. The only problem is that I've only got $5k to invest, especially if I'm maintaining a healthy rainy day fund. And I'm not throwing all $5k into a single stock. That's why I'm not on a gold plated yacht. The truth is you could be a financial genius but if you grew up in a middle class family and have basically zero inherited wealth, you're not going to have the money to invest.
  - bluGill 7y ago
    If you are a financial genius you will soon have money to invest, it doesn't take much to start, and every year there are a few doubling opportunities. Most of us are not financial genius and so we only realize they existed in hindsight. However there were always signs that could have been seen in advance - and there are always ways to cut your losses. If you don't start with might it might take 20 years but a real financial genius can be rich even if their source of income during that 20 years is flipping burgers.
- MulliMulli 7y ago
  Hey man, posting this from my gold plated yacht.. want some trading advice?
- logfromblammo 7y ago
  30% returns on chump change is still chump change, but if you already have a yacht, 30% returns will allow you to gold-plate it. It's far more likely that those financial geniuses are just not worried about retirement or college tuition for their kids. Because the strongest correlating factor for getting richer is already being rich, and not being smart with money. The real question is... why aren't all yachts now gold-plated yachts? If my father gave me $1 billion 40 years ago, I would have to be literally the dumbest idiot in the world--or the unluckiest schliemazel in the world--to have less than that now. Instead, I just got a debt-free bachelor's degree, and so I'm not rich now, but still doing okay.
- Der_Einzige 7y ago
  Some of us only entered the markets now (puts) because they hedged that they know more about epidemology than investors did. I don't think I can beat wall street except when wall street doesn't know how to respond.
AznHisoka 7y ago
If your time horizon is more than a year, why not buy the dip? Sure, I wouldn't put 100% of my cash to work right now, but I think it's sensible to come up with a list of stocks you feel are beat up, and dollar cost average buying them. Of course this is hard to do if your portfolio is 100% invested already, and you have little cash left.
- TAForObvReasons 7y ago
  S&P fell in late 2000 and returned to that peak in in 2007. S&P crashed in 2008 and recovered in 2013. 1 year is way too short a timeline. Maybe 5-10 years is the shortest time horizon to not be worried about market timing EDIT: what part of this comment merited the cascade of downvotes (-5 at this moment)? You can verify the first two points fairly easily, and the last line is general advice given by many financial professionals and evidenced by the first two.
  - dragontamer 7y ago
    And for the Tech bubble, Nasdaq peaked at 5,046.86 on March 1999, and didn't return to that level March 2, 2015, 16 years later.
  - praveenweb 7y ago
    For a 50% fall, there needs to be a 100% increase to reach back the same levels and hence the timelines might be longer.
  - AznHisoka 7y ago
    True, but we aren't near the peak. Most likely, you don't need to wait 5-10 years for stocks to go above the current price range. You might need to wait longer for it to return the peak, I agree.
- streetcat1 7y ago
  "Losers average losers" (Paul Tudor Jones) Do not average down.
leggomylibro 7y ago
Especially since the number of "confirmed" cases is extremely limited by the number of tests. The infected numbers will rise precipitously as testing rolls out, and the apparent growth rate will freak people out and roil the market more. By all means, please keep selling! Personally, I'm betting that the markets will recover pretty quickly after things actually start to improve, and I'll be surprised if this skittishness doesn't pay for the trip to Venice that I'm now planning to take in the Spring :D It'll still be gamble, but I like these odds.
- XorNot 7y ago
  The other way it'll show up in an absence of testing will be hospitals running out of beds. Which will be invisible in the media until it happens and doesn't let up (see Italy, which was doing okay up to a few weeks ago).
  - leggomylibro 7y ago
    I think and hope that's less likely, but it would still be bad for the markets in the short term either way. I don't think that failing to test people in order to artificially reduce "the numbers" will keep the markets afloat for much longer.
martokus 7y ago
A dip implies a bottom exists. Right now it's just a steep slope with no bottom in sight.
- qubex 7y ago
  A steep slope with no bottom in sight does not imply that a bottom does not exist. Indeed it’s clear that a bottom must exist. Being unable to infer where it may be does not negate that certainty.
  - trevyn 7y ago
    Money must exist?
    - airstrike 7y ago
      No, but companies must have some value greater than zero since they generate future cash flows.
      - Cakez0r 7y ago
        I've got a company to sell you!
  - monster_group 7y ago
    A bottom always exists. It is zero. There is no top however.
    - logfromblammo 7y ago
      Leveraged financial instruments can create a negative bottom. Don't assume anything magical about zero.
  - jsight 7y ago
    Honestly, that is always the mentality of the market. Its going up with no top in sight! The next day its going down with no bottom in sight! Except that bottoms have more natural barriers than tops.
PragmaticPulp 7y ago
Do not get your investment advice from random internet comments. Do not make "all or nothing" investment choices. It's perfectly reasonable to stay the course with bi-monthly investment purchases in your 401k. We will bottom out eventually, but you're unlikely to call the exact bottom.

r0fl 7y ago

It seems everyone is a financial guru these days. I wonder what these people are doing on their keyboards. Why aren't they all on gold plated yachts?

jansan 7y ago
Are there no keyboards on gold plated yachts?
- samstave 7y ago
  I cant even afford a gold plated keyboard. :-(
  - TAForObvReasons 7y ago
    https://www.tomshardware.com/news/24k-gold-keyboard https://www.tomshardware.com/news/24k-gold-keyboard
    - marvel_boy 7y ago
      Just ordered !
  - econcon 7y ago
    Isn't buying silver plated better due to germicidal properties of silver?
Jorge1o1 7y ago
I've pulled off some pretty great trades in my time, for example, I had the conviction that the Sprint merger was going to get approved and I bought Sprint stock in January, nearly doubled my money. The only problem is that I've only got $5k to invest, especially if I'm maintaining a healthy rainy day fund. And I'm not throwing all $5k into a single stock. That's why I'm not on a gold plated yacht. The truth is you could be a financial genius but if you grew up in a middle class family and have basically zero inherited wealth, you're not going to have the money to invest.
- bluGill 7y ago
  If you are a financial genius you will soon have money to invest, it doesn't take much to start, and every year there are a few doubling opportunities. Most of us are not financial genius and so we only realize they existed in hindsight. However there were always signs that could have been seen in advance - and there are always ways to cut your losses. If you don't start with might it might take 20 years but a real financial genius can be rich even if their source of income during that 20 years is flipping burgers.
MulliMulli 7y ago
Hey man, posting this from my gold plated yacht.. want some trading advice?
logfromblammo 7y ago
30% returns on chump change is still chump change, but if you already have a yacht, 30% returns will allow you to gold-plate it. It's far more likely that those financial geniuses are just not worried about retirement or college tuition for their kids. Because the strongest correlating factor for getting richer is already being rich, and not being smart with money. The real question is... why aren't all yachts now gold-plated yachts? If my father gave me $1 billion 40 years ago, I would have to be literally the dumbest idiot in the world--or the unluckiest schliemazel in the world--to have less than that now. Instead, I just got a debt-free bachelor's degree, and so I'm not rich now, but still doing okay.
Der_Einzige 7y ago
Some of us only entered the markets now (puts) because they hedged that they know more about epidemology than investors did. I don't think I can beat wall street except when wall street doesn't know how to respond.

AznHisoka 7y ago

If your time horizon is more than a year, why not buy the dip? Sure, I wouldn't put 100% of my cash to work right now, but I think it's sensible to come up with a list of stocks you feel are beat up, and dollar cost average buying them. Of course this is hard to do if your portfolio is 100% invested already, and you have little cash left.

TAForObvReasons 7y ago
S&P fell in late 2000 and returned to that peak in in 2007. S&P crashed in 2008 and recovered in 2013. 1 year is way too short a timeline. Maybe 5-10 years is the shortest time horizon to not be worried about market timing EDIT: what part of this comment merited the cascade of downvotes (-5 at this moment)? You can verify the first two points fairly easily, and the last line is general advice given by many financial professionals and evidenced by the first two.
- dragontamer 7y ago
  And for the Tech bubble, Nasdaq peaked at 5,046.86 on March 1999, and didn't return to that level March 2, 2015, 16 years later.
- praveenweb 7y ago
  For a 50% fall, there needs to be a 100% increase to reach back the same levels and hence the timelines might be longer.
- AznHisoka 7y ago
  True, but we aren't near the peak. Most likely, you don't need to wait 5-10 years for stocks to go above the current price range. You might need to wait longer for it to return the peak, I agree.
streetcat1 7y ago
"Losers average losers" (Paul Tudor Jones) Do not average down.

leggomylibro 7y ago

Especially since the number of "confirmed" cases is extremely limited by the number of tests. The infected numbers will rise precipitously as testing rolls out, and the apparent growth rate will freak people out and roil the market more. By all means, please keep selling! Personally, I'm betting that the markets will recover pretty quickly after things actually start to improve, and I'll be surprised if this skittishness doesn't pay for the trip to Venice that I'm now planning to take in the Spring :D It'll still be gamble, but I like these odds.

XorNot 7y ago
The other way it'll show up in an absence of testing will be hospitals running out of beds. Which will be invisible in the media until it happens and doesn't let up (see Italy, which was doing okay up to a few weeks ago).
- leggomylibro 7y ago
  I think and hope that's less likely, but it would still be bad for the markets in the short term either way. I don't think that failing to test people in order to artificially reduce "the numbers" will keep the markets afloat for much longer.

martokus 7y ago

A dip implies a bottom exists. Right now it's just a steep slope with no bottom in sight.

qubex 7y ago
A steep slope with no bottom in sight does not imply that a bottom does not exist. Indeed it’s clear that a bottom must exist. Being unable to infer where it may be does not negate that certainty.
- trevyn 7y ago
  Money must exist?
  - airstrike 7y ago
    No, but companies must have some value greater than zero since they generate future cash flows.
    - Cakez0r 7y ago
      I've got a company to sell you!
- monster_group 7y ago
  A bottom always exists. It is zero. There is no top however.
  - logfromblammo 7y ago
    Leveraged financial instruments can create a negative bottom. Don't assume anything magical about zero.
- jsight 7y ago
  Honestly, that is always the mentality of the market. Its going up with no top in sight! The next day its going down with no bottom in sight! Except that bottoms have more natural barriers than tops.

PragmaticPulp 7y ago

Do not get your investment advice from random internet comments. Do not make "all or nothing" investment choices. It's perfectly reasonable to stay the course with bi-monthly investment purchases in your 401k. We will bottom out eventually, but you're unlikely to call the exact bottom.