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> So, politicians choose (1), no action, as the most likely winning scenario. I'm from Belgium myself, so I can chime in. Our minister of health is a docter h

> So, politicians choose (1), no action, as the most likely winning scenario. I'm from Belgium myself, so I can chime in. Our minister of health is a docter herself, and is advised by a panel of experts including a professor of virology. They know very well what they are doing with the current 400 known infections. Closing schools makes no sense currently because of following factors: - kids are not the main factor in spreading the virus, as seen in other countries. - Putting kids with their grandparents is probaly worse for death toll compared to keeping them in schools. Look at the exponential growth curve of for example Denmark https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Denmark https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in... And compare that to the pretty linear growth curve of Belgium https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Belgium https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in... So please stop treating this as game theory. Our country is doing the best thing in this situation. Edit: denmark link and rude language

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
dang 7y ago
> So please stop your bullshit about game theory. Your comment is fine except for that attack. Please don't stoop to that here, regardless of how strongly emotions are running. It helps no one and only makes this place worse. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- koonsolo 7y ago
  You are right, fixed this in an edit.
  - dang 7y ago
    Appreciated!
ekzy 7y ago
You posted the belgium link twice. Here's Denmark https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Denmark https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in...
Symbiote 7y ago
What have Belgium and Denmark done differently, up to ~10 March? I don't see much (if any) difference in their responses, so there must be some other factor for Denmark -- e.g. increased travel to Italy, more tourism from China, poorer personal hygiene, ... I don't really know, but
samastur 7y ago
Maybe, but this is not linear growth. It's still exponential, albeit not as steep as ours (Slovenia), but you are still on course to double number of cases every 5 days. Linear growth would have a declining rate for daily percentage change (adding 10 cases when you have 100 is 10% change, adding 10 when you have 400 is 2.5%).
- koonsolo 7y ago
  Yeah the last day (12th) indicates that it is exponential. But if you look at the curve before that, it gave indication that the growth rate was slowing down. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
sumedh 7y ago
> kids are not the main factor in spreading the virus, as seen in other countries. Why did Japan close down schools, do they know something which Belgium does not or did Japan make a mistake by closing down schools.
- usaar333 7y ago
  There's always uncertainty. In societies where you have fewer mothers of young children working, economic cost of closing schools is lower. All said I agree with GP that existing evidence suggests kids aren't a driver of the pandemic.
- koonsolo 7y ago
  What I know from Japan is that a lot of moms stay at home, so closing schools mean the kids stay at home. In Belgium, almost everybody works, so kids will go to their grandparents, which is arguable a worse situation.
true_religion 7y ago
Closing schools makes senses in democratic nations for two reasons. First, it puts societal pressure on businesses to close or modify their operations by allowing people to work from home. Many families are simply not setup to have kids at home, but parents at work, so factoring that in will cause businesses to change. Most importantly, all this happens without government directly intervening in business decisions. Secondly, it lays the groundwork for politicians to take more drastic actions. If schools remain open, even if it makes sense by “the numbers”, it’s still going to be politically difficult to cancel events, restrict general travel, and eventually close businesses. The public sees school closures as step 1 in any disaster situation. You can’t discount the importance of emotional signaling.
- koonsolo 7y ago
  Kids will be dropped with their grandparents, as I stated before. And medical staff needs to stay home and take care of the kids too?

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

dang 7y ago

> So please stop your bullshit about game theory. Your comment is fine except for that attack. Please don't stoop to that here, regardless of how strongly emotions are running. It helps no one and only makes this place worse. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

koonsolo 7y ago
You are right, fixed this in an edit.
- dang 7y ago
  Appreciated!

ekzy 7y ago

You posted the belgium link twice. Here's Denmark https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Denmark https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in...

Symbiote 7y ago

What have Belgium and Denmark done differently, up to ~10 March? I don't see much (if any) difference in their responses, so there must be some other factor for Denmark -- e.g. increased travel to Italy, more tourism from China, poorer personal hygiene, ... I don't really know, but

samastur 7y ago

Maybe, but this is not linear growth. It's still exponential, albeit not as steep as ours (Slovenia), but you are still on course to double number of cases every 5 days. Linear growth would have a declining rate for daily percentage change (adding 10 cases when you have 100 is 10% change, adding 10 when you have 400 is 2.5%).

koonsolo 7y ago
Yeah the last day (12th) indicates that it is exponential. But if you look at the curve before that, it gave indication that the growth rate was slowing down. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

sumedh 7y ago

> kids are not the main factor in spreading the virus, as seen in other countries. Why did Japan close down schools, do they know something which Belgium does not or did Japan make a mistake by closing down schools.

usaar333 7y ago
There's always uncertainty. In societies where you have fewer mothers of young children working, economic cost of closing schools is lower. All said I agree with GP that existing evidence suggests kids aren't a driver of the pandemic.
koonsolo 7y ago
What I know from Japan is that a lot of moms stay at home, so closing schools mean the kids stay at home. In Belgium, almost everybody works, so kids will go to their grandparents, which is arguable a worse situation.

true_religion 7y ago

Closing schools makes senses in democratic nations for two reasons. First, it puts societal pressure on businesses to close or modify their operations by allowing people to work from home. Many families are simply not setup to have kids at home, but parents at work, so factoring that in will cause businesses to change. Most importantly, all this happens without government directly intervening in business decisions. Secondly, it lays the groundwork for politicians to take more drastic actions. If schools remain open, even if it makes sense by “the numbers”, it’s still going to be politically difficult to cancel events, restrict general travel, and eventually close businesses. The public sees school closures as step 1 in any disaster situation. You can’t discount the importance of emotional signaling.

koonsolo 7y ago
Kids will be dropped with their grandparents, as I stated before. And medical staff needs to stay home and take care of the kids too?