When is too late to act? Clearly Italy acted too late. I've been plotting the actual case data, in an attempt to get some idea of where countries lie with res

When is too late to act? Clearly Italy acted too late. I've been plotting the actual case data, in an attempt to get some idea of where countries lie with respect to Italy: https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237781162153717760 https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237781162153717760 These are not strictly predictions, but they give some idea of what will happen if we act in a similar way to Italy. Note that there's a 6 to 10 day lag in the stats (~6 days incubation, up to 4 days testing, at least in the UK right now). Without isolation measures, we're seeing 33% per day increase rates. If we wait until we can measure the scale of the problem, it's likely to be too late to prevent it.