This is the problem of simplistic analysis. The question here is which actions of what severity, not simple act or not. There are many ways to handle this, fr

This is the problem of simplistic analysis. The question here is which actions of what severity, not simple act or not. There are many ways to handle this, from maximum quarantine and cancellation of medical appointments, through closing mass gatherings (e.g. schools), rationing, enforced testing, closing public transportation, controlling private transportation, closing airports, sea and river ports, mandatory sampling for tests etc. Each choice comes with a value for disruption and voter groups it will affect, and value for monetary cost. Game theory is not too helpful here, as disruption does not directly affect discontent and definitely not your chances of getting elected. These are much more complex decisions with many more actions between here and then.