In this case it actually seems kind of rational. It's really hard to process all the information that's available about what's going on; it's changing constant

In this case it actually seems kind of rational. It's really hard to process all the information that's available about what's going on; it's changing constantly, there's no consensus on a lot of stuff, the numbers and curves are highly unnatural to think about even if they didn't have massive uncertainty in their variables, and on and on. As an example, instead let's talk about the lottery. If I hear that a movie star won the lottery, that's pretty surprising. I didn't expect to ever even know the name of someone that wins the lottery. The odds are really, really long and I don't know the names of enough people. And oh, an NBA player won the lottery today too? OK, well maybe this lottery doesn't work the way I was thinking.