> How can you call an expert someone who can’t consciously decide their own confidence intervals? Well, you don't have to call them that, but most people whom

> How can you call an expert someone who can’t consciously decide their own confidence intervals? Well, you don't have to call them that, but most people whom others call experts are overconfident in this quantifiable way. See, for example, https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-art-thinking-clearly/201306/the-overconfidence-effect https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-art-thinking-cle... . You probably can't do it as well as you think you can either.