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I can't believe the 40-70% number. Looking it up, this underscores just how horribly the internet is set up to have these kinds of conversations. If you backsou

I can't believe the 40-70% number. Looking it up, this underscores just how horribly the internet is set up to have these kinds of conversations. If you backsource it, you discover he said "there's a chance" it will hit 40-70%, and then only if no countermeasures are taken. That's very different than what is represented in the cbs transcript. I saw another seemingly reputable estimate today - some disease person on Joe Rogan's podcast, who was saying that 96 million people could get it, of which 48 million would need to be hospitalized. This makes no sense unless you are predicting a virus mutation. We're not even close to seeing 50% hospitalization rates.

Gustomaximus 7y ago
> I can't believe the 40-70% number. I can. Look at how seriously China shut down cities etc and it still spreads, though much slower. Do you think western nations will take the level of action China has at all or in anyhting similar to the same time frames? And to be clear, when I say 'I can' I'm not claiming Im right or predicting anything, I really dont know. But this seems as likely as any other scenario especially when experts are saying levels around this.
slg 7y ago
I can't pretend to be an expert on this. All I can do is defer to experts, look at the numbers as they currently stand, and do some simplistic math. I also don't have the skills to vet the various experts, but I can tell you I have more faith in the vetting process of places like CBS News, BBC, Harvard, Johns Hopkins, and the German government than I do Joe Rogan.
- sbmassey 7y ago
  Rogan was interviewing Michael Osterholm, who seems to be of good reputation.
pfdietz 7y ago
Why can't you believe it? It will spread until so many are immune that it stops spreading. That requires it infect a good fraction of the population.
- thebigspacefuck 7y ago
  We don’t know whether you get immunity after recovery because the antibodies can be too weak. There are also already multiple strains and immunity to one strain wouldn’t guarantee immunity to the other strain. Source: https://futurism.com/neoscope/scientists-warn-coronavirus-more-than-once https://futurism.com/neoscope/scientists-warn-coronavirus-mo...

Gustomaximus 7y ago

> I can't believe the 40-70% number. I can. Look at how seriously China shut down cities etc and it still spreads, though much slower. Do you think western nations will take the level of action China has at all or in anyhting similar to the same time frames? And to be clear, when I say 'I can' I'm not claiming Im right or predicting anything, I really dont know. But this seems as likely as any other scenario especially when experts are saying levels around this.

slg 7y ago

I can't pretend to be an expert on this. All I can do is defer to experts, look at the numbers as they currently stand, and do some simplistic math. I also don't have the skills to vet the various experts, but I can tell you I have more faith in the vetting process of places like CBS News, BBC, Harvard, Johns Hopkins, and the German government than I do Joe Rogan.

sbmassey 7y ago
Rogan was interviewing Michael Osterholm, who seems to be of good reputation.

pfdietz 7y ago

Why can't you believe it? It will spread until so many are immune that it stops spreading. That requires it infect a good fraction of the population.

thebigspacefuck 7y ago
We don’t know whether you get immunity after recovery because the antibodies can be too weak. There are also already multiple strains and immunity to one strain wouldn’t guarantee immunity to the other strain. Source: https://futurism.com/neoscope/scientists-warn-coronavirus-more-than-once https://futurism.com/neoscope/scientists-warn-coronavirus-mo...