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> The mortality rate seems to be as low as 0.6% in South Korea or as high as 5% in Italy. [...] It is not an End of Days zombie apocalypse. A few percent is a

by knzhou 7y ago

> The mortality rate seems to be as low as 0.6% in South Korea or as high as 5% in Italy. [...] It is not an End of Days zombie apocalypse. A few percent is a lot. World War II killed 3% of the human population, and that's where we're headed if we don't stop it.

corel_ 7y ago
Because World War 2 killed 3% of the general population. The coronavirus, in a single country, has killed 5% of infected people and elder people or those with pre-existing conditions are majorly overrepresented in infection rates. >World War II killed 3% of the human population, and that's where we're headed if we don't stop it. This isn't just wrong. It's irresponsible for you to be saying these types of absolutely incorrect things.
- sumofi 7y ago
  The chance right now that you will know someone you love being killed by Corona is really realistic. I'm not sure how you think how critical it is. I personally have never had this issue and do not mind at all to lay still for a whole year to try to reduce the risk of this happening.
  - koyote 7y ago
    > The chance right now that you will know someone you love being killed by Corona is really realistic. Unless all the people you love are over 80 (in which case the chance of them dying before Corona hit was not much less realistic than it is now) that sentance is just completely false. Why spread such fear and misinformation?
    - defined 7y ago
      It’s not only over 80s. It’s anyone with cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, morbid obesity, and some others, which collectively describes large swaths of the US population.
    - jbay808 7y ago
      You have your math wrong. Unless none of the people you love are over 70, that sentence is completely true.
    - vharuck 7y ago
      My wife is a pre-kindergarten teacher and has asthma. I'm very worried.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - sumofi 7y ago
      I tell you a secret: if not traveling for a year means that even my grandfather with 91 lives a year longer, I'm on board.
- scarmig 7y ago
  Everything from smoking to high blood pressure to diabetes to old age to obsesity is considered a "pre-existing condition." Yes, killing 5% of infected people is serious, especially when viruses of a similar family regularly infect 20% of the population, and the population has no inborn resistance to this partical virus, and it is, provisionially, more infectious than similar viruses. Simple models suggest we'll have 500k deaths or so by 2021. Of course, it could be less than that, but it could also be more. It's almost certain we'll end up with some days with a 9/11 worth of deaths; it's just a question of whether that's a few days or for months on end.
jki275 7y ago
No we're not. That's absolutely absurd to claim. It might -- MIGHT -- kill 2-3% of people who are highly susceptible to it, people who are in their 70s+, people with cardiac and respiratory disease. Maybe. We don't even know that will happen, because we can probably save a huge percentage of that population as well. You're fearmongering, and it's bullshit.
- scarmig 7y ago
  You're... reverse fearmongering? Downplaying? Additionally, for someone calling others' claims bullshit, your numbers have no correspondence to reality. In Wuhan, the 3% number was for the general population; for the 70+ age range, it was ~20%.
  - tunesmith 7y ago
    3% of the infected, not 3% of everyone. You can't compare it to WW2 unless you assume everyone will be infected.
    - knzhou 7y ago
      If you don't control a disease, the default assumption is that it infects a substantial fraction of the whole human population. In almost all examples in human history, whenever a disease stopped, it was either because it burned through most of humanity, or because people decided to make it stop. They don't stop themselves.
      - jki275 7y ago
        That's a ridiculous assumption. You're pretending we live in the 1400s. We don't. You're pretending we will take no measures to control this at all. That's simply not the case.
        astronautjones 7y ago
        > You're pretending we will take no measures to control this at all. That's simply not the case. the US gov't has spent the last 1.5 months doing nothing to contain this at all. ending flights from europe isn't going to do anything to help if they aren't testing people and preventing spread inside the country

by knzhou 7y ago

corel_ 7y ago

Because World War 2 killed 3% of the general population. The coronavirus, in a single country, has killed 5% of infected people and elder people or those with pre-existing conditions are majorly overrepresented in infection rates. >World War II killed 3% of the human population, and that's where we're headed if we don't stop it. This isn't just wrong. It's irresponsible for you to be saying these types of absolutely incorrect things.

sumofi 7y ago
The chance right now that you will know someone you love being killed by Corona is really realistic. I'm not sure how you think how critical it is. I personally have never had this issue and do not mind at all to lay still for a whole year to try to reduce the risk of this happening.
- koyote 7y ago
  > The chance right now that you will know someone you love being killed by Corona is really realistic. Unless all the people you love are over 80 (in which case the chance of them dying before Corona hit was not much less realistic than it is now) that sentance is just completely false. Why spread such fear and misinformation?
  - defined 7y ago
    It’s not only over 80s. It’s anyone with cardiovascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, morbid obesity, and some others, which collectively describes large swaths of the US population.
  - jbay808 7y ago
    You have your math wrong. Unless none of the people you love are over 70, that sentence is completely true.
  - vharuck 7y ago
    My wife is a pre-kindergarten teacher and has asthma. I'm very worried.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - sumofi 7y ago
    I tell you a secret: if not traveling for a year means that even my grandfather with 91 lives a year longer, I'm on board.
scarmig 7y ago
Everything from smoking to high blood pressure to diabetes to old age to obsesity is considered a "pre-existing condition." Yes, killing 5% of infected people is serious, especially when viruses of a similar family regularly infect 20% of the population, and the population has no inborn resistance to this partical virus, and it is, provisionially, more infectious than similar viruses. Simple models suggest we'll have 500k deaths or so by 2021. Of course, it could be less than that, but it could also be more. It's almost certain we'll end up with some days with a 9/11 worth of deaths; it's just a question of whether that's a few days or for months on end.

jki275 7y ago

No we're not. That's absolutely absurd to claim. It might -- MIGHT -- kill 2-3% of people who are highly susceptible to it, people who are in their 70s+, people with cardiac and respiratory disease. Maybe. We don't even know that will happen, because we can probably save a huge percentage of that population as well. You're fearmongering, and it's bullshit.

scarmig 7y ago
You're... reverse fearmongering? Downplaying? Additionally, for someone calling others' claims bullshit, your numbers have no correspondence to reality. In Wuhan, the 3% number was for the general population; for the 70+ age range, it was ~20%.
- tunesmith 7y ago
  3% of the infected, not 3% of everyone. You can't compare it to WW2 unless you assume everyone will be infected.
  - knzhou 7y ago
    If you don't control a disease, the default assumption is that it infects a substantial fraction of the whole human population. In almost all examples in human history, whenever a disease stopped, it was either because it burned through most of humanity, or because people decided to make it stop. They don't stop themselves.
    - jki275 7y ago
      That's a ridiculous assumption. You're pretending we live in the 1400s. We don't. You're pretending we will take no measures to control this at all. That's simply not the case.
      - astronautjones 7y ago
        > You're pretending we will take no measures to control this at all. That's simply not the case. the US gov't has spent the last 1.5 months doing nothing to contain this at all. ending flights from europe isn't going to do anything to help if they aren't testing people and preventing spread inside the country