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About time... They might be able to reduce R0 < 1 and be done with the pandemics in 3-4 weeks. On the other hand, Spain and Germany are going to blow up next we

by bitL 7y ago

About time... They might be able to reduce R0 < 1 and be done with the pandemics in 3-4 weeks. On the other hand, Spain and Germany are going to blow up next week, Italy-style.

hef19898 7y ago
What makes you think that? Seriously asking, because I don't see that risk right now. Also, if it does blow up like Italy we will just have to take it up from there, no point in arguing about the past.
- bitL 7y ago
  This Reddit thread over at /r/europe has pretty compelling visualizations: https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/fguile/germany_vs_italy_covid19_cases/ https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/fguile/germany_vs_i... Germany lags 8 days behind Italy, Spain 7 days.
  - hef19898 7y ago
    It is not the most popular opinion, but unless the modeling is coming from legit experts, as compared to some people playing with numbers, I prefer to ignore them. I stick with sources like the WHO and local health authorities, simply becasue they have the knowledge, expertie, man power and data basis to come up with reliable numbers. That being said, Austria is closing schools starting next week, Bavaria is discussing the same. Denmark and Plnd are closing schools as well. So even if Italy is 7 days ahead, other Eurpean countries are closing down sooner.
    - bitL 7y ago
      Which is a good thing in both cases you mentioned. Though seeing those visualizations could put things in a proper perspective and prompt officials to act quickly while they could still do something about it. Many health experts are worried and are expressing their concerns publicly already. /r/covid19 is trying to keep all posts scientific and high quality, maybe you can monitor it over there for latest info.
      - hef19898 7y ago
        Not that active on reddit, but given that the data presentation from WHO and co. is abysmal, both in style and depth, I might give it a try. Not that I am following it to closely until now, so. Might change, so. I would love to get my hands on the raw data the WHO has so. Not post any results online or publicly, but to toy around with them. It is such an intriguing data set!
        bitL 7y ago
        Here are datasets: https://lionbridge.ai/datasets/coronavirus-datasets-from-every-country/ https://lionbridge.ai/datasets/coronavirus-datasets-from-eve... Can't vouch for their accuracy though so be careful with any results.
        hef19898 7y ago
        You are ruining my whole schedule for tomorrow, man! Just as a heads up, i am no ML guy or even data scientist, just a logistics guy who loves to crunch numbers in Excel. So I don't think you have to go through the pain to indirectly reach out to the CDC just tosatisfy my curiosity! But thanks a lot for the link!
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
gpm 7y ago
> and be done with the pandemics in 3-4 weeks Unlikely... even if they could wave a magic wand and wipe out the disease in Denmark entirely they are just going to be re-infected via people from other countries.
- bitL 7y ago
  Important is that they are then able to quickly disperse local outbreaks once they are familiar with how to handle it. Right now they are fighting to keep it contained nation-wide, i.e. reducing R0 to under 1, that should last up to 4 weeks if China is any kind of a reliable indicator, then local outbreaks might still happen but could be quickly quarantined without overloading ICUs.
sharken 7y ago
Not sure i would use blow up to describe the situation. If you look at the Median age in Europe, the oldest population are found in Italy, Germany, Portugal and Greece, see https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:Median_age_of_population,_2008-18_(years)_.png https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php... The mortality rate is still quite uncertain, either you believe the Chinese data (https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ https://www.flattenthecurve.com/) or you can lean towards the South Korean data (https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030 https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=00...). The Korean data has half the mortality rate of that in China. Bottom-line is that we are doing this to protect the elderly, so that the healthcare system won't be overrun. And in the process hopefully a vaccine or treatment will be introduced to counter the virus.

by bitL 7y ago

About time... They might be able to reduce R0 < 1 and be done with the pandemics in 3-4 weeks. On the other hand, Spain and Germany are going to blow up next week, Italy-style.

hef19898 7y ago

What makes you think that? Seriously asking, because I don't see that risk right now. Also, if it does blow up like Italy we will just have to take it up from there, no point in arguing about the past.

bitL 7y ago
This Reddit thread over at /r/europe has pretty compelling visualizations: https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/fguile/germany_vs_italy_covid19_cases/ https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/fguile/germany_vs_i... Germany lags 8 days behind Italy, Spain 7 days.
- hef19898 7y ago
  It is not the most popular opinion, but unless the modeling is coming from legit experts, as compared to some people playing with numbers, I prefer to ignore them. I stick with sources like the WHO and local health authorities, simply becasue they have the knowledge, expertie, man power and data basis to come up with reliable numbers. That being said, Austria is closing schools starting next week, Bavaria is discussing the same. Denmark and Plnd are closing schools as well. So even if Italy is 7 days ahead, other Eurpean countries are closing down sooner.
  - bitL 7y ago
    Which is a good thing in both cases you mentioned. Though seeing those visualizations could put things in a proper perspective and prompt officials to act quickly while they could still do something about it. Many health experts are worried and are expressing their concerns publicly already. /r/covid19 is trying to keep all posts scientific and high quality, maybe you can monitor it over there for latest info.
    - hef19898 7y ago
      Not that active on reddit, but given that the data presentation from WHO and co. is abysmal, both in style and depth, I might give it a try. Not that I am following it to closely until now, so. Might change, so. I would love to get my hands on the raw data the WHO has so. Not post any results online or publicly, but to toy around with them. It is such an intriguing data set!
      - bitL 7y ago
        Here are datasets: https://lionbridge.ai/datasets/coronavirus-datasets-from-every-country/ https://lionbridge.ai/datasets/coronavirus-datasets-from-eve... Can't vouch for their accuracy though so be careful with any results.
        hef19898 7y ago
        You are ruining my whole schedule for tomorrow, man! Just as a heads up, i am no ML guy or even data scientist, just a logistics guy who loves to crunch numbers in Excel. So I don't think you have to go through the pain to indirectly reach out to the CDC just tosatisfy my curiosity! But thanks a lot for the link!
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]

gpm 7y ago

> and be done with the pandemics in 3-4 weeks Unlikely... even if they could wave a magic wand and wipe out the disease in Denmark entirely they are just going to be re-infected via people from other countries.

bitL 7y ago
Important is that they are then able to quickly disperse local outbreaks once they are familiar with how to handle it. Right now they are fighting to keep it contained nation-wide, i.e. reducing R0 to under 1, that should last up to 4 weeks if China is any kind of a reliable indicator, then local outbreaks might still happen but could be quickly quarantined without overloading ICUs.

sharken 7y ago

Not sure i would use blow up to describe the situation. If you look at the Median age in Europe, the oldest population are found in Italy, Germany, Portugal and Greece, see https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:Median_age_of_population,_2008-18_(years)_.png https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php... The mortality rate is still quite uncertain, either you believe the Chinese data (https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ https://www.flattenthecurve.com/) or you can lean towards the South Korean data (https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030 https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=00...). The Korean data has half the mortality rate of that in China. Bottom-line is that we are doing this to protect the elderly, so that the healthcare system won't be overrun. And in the process hopefully a vaccine or treatment will be introduced to counter the virus.