4 ms·
Please remember that epidemics must, by rules of reality, logistic curves, not exponential.
by mlavin 7y ago
Please remember that epidemics must, by rules of reality, logistic curves, not exponential.
- jhart99 7y agoYes at some point the new infections has to go down if for no other reason than there is no one left to infect. As you said it must be logistic, because after a while infected people simply bump into fewer and fewer uninfected people.
- altcognito 7y agoThanks, I was wondering what the name of the curve was, because logically there is no way it ends up being totally exponential.
- mlavin 7y agoAnd to be more specific, you can roughly model it with a Gompertz function: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function