4 ms·
> COVID-19 currently has a 3.4% case fatality ratio according to the WHO last week - This number will likely go down to below 1% because: - S. Korea have impl
by bad_user 7y ago
> COVID-19 currently has a 3.4% case fatality ratio according to the WHO last week -
This number will likely go down to below 1% because:
- S. Korea have implemented large scale tests on asymptomatic cases and their death rate is 0.77%
- the "Princess Diamond" cruise, which can be considered a closed experiment, has had a 1% death rate for people that were not ventilated
- in China if you exclude the Hubei province, the mortality rate is 0.88%
In Italy the mortality rate is 6% but the explanation is quite simple — they stopped testing asymptomatic cases, even people with fever are sent home without a test and instructed to return in case the fever doesn't go away in a few days and they are overwhelmed. At this point they are only admitting people that have trouble breathing.
And northern Italy has really good hospitals, so the only reasonable explanation for the huge disparity is that they have more than 10 times the reported total cases.
In other words, the virus has infected many more people than official numbers.
Remember that those "total cases" are cases that have been discovered via tests, it does not include people that stayed at home and weren't tested, either because the symptoms were too mild or because they were sent home.
- Retric 7y ago“Princess Diamond” deaths are excluding people who died in their home countries that where infected on the cruse ship. They had 6 deaths as of February 28th and then excluded all future deaths and cases “cases found after disembarkation” from the total. Edit: A Hong Kong national from the ship died on 6 March which is being included as the 7th death. So, this may simply be fragmented rather than explicit exclusions.
- bad_user 7y agoAre these stats not accurate? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries They are saying 7 deaths and 32 critical.
- Retric 7y agoI don’t know about the cruse ship, but it seems like it’s double counting a death in Australia on both the cruse ship and an Australian death. I would double check the totals. As far as I can tell Australia has 3 deaths including 1 from the cruse ship. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-08/coronavirus-related-death-in-sydney-hospital/12036410 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-08/coronavirus-related-d...
- mrec 7y agoI really wish everyone was doing the random-sampling-of-general-population thing. Even if they could only do it on a fairly small scale, I suspect it'd give a much better picture of where we're really at than the "confirmed cases" floor.