4 ms·
Curious, what's the end goal? And when does it end?
by alexbanks 7y ago
Curious, what's the end goal? And when does it end?
- ISL 7y agoThe short-term goal is limiting the case-load entering advanced medical care. The long-term goal is limiting the number of people who die from COVID-19.
- jhowell 7y agoHopefully not here (or there): https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/merkel-coronavirus-germany/2020/03/11/e276252a-6399-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/merkel-coronavir...
- danso 7y agoThe end goal is to mitigate and delay mass infection. It ends when the virus dies down and/or a vaccine is developed and mass produced.
- alexbanks 7y agoSo, a possibility of "never"?
- tejtm 7y agoFor some, a definite never. As lovers of life, we tend to feel the fewer the better. Will populations "never" normalize whatever comes to pass? Extremely doubtful, we seem incredibly adept at amnesicly moving on.
- Robotbeat 7y agoIt's likely that once the virus becomes endemic, it'll also be mutated to a less lethal form. Eventually, basically everyone will have had it and built up some level of (probably incomplete) immunity, so community gathering restrictions will no longer be needed to reduce load on hospitals. As far as timeframe, probably 20-75% of the population will have had it by the end of the year. Certainly by 12 months from now. Or a vaccine or anti-viral will have been deployed.
- danso 7y ago"Never" what? You're aware that the world has had past pandemics, including one that killed 50 million people, and yet society returned to normal?
- jeherr 7y agoWe also have influenza as an example of a possibility of "never."
- danso 7y agoRight, the flu will "never" be gone, but human society has been able to go about its business. That's why I wanted to know what the parent commenter means by "never". It seems like they were implying that society would be in a state of emergency forever because of coronavirus.
- andbberger 7y agoThe thing to focus on is that social distancing and other measures slow the growth rate of the infection, and will limit the peak load on our medical resources. Once we run out of ventilators (and we will if we don't start canceling everything _right now_) the fatality rate will increase substantially.
- empath75 7y agoEventually pandemics burn themselves out -- the entire susceptible population becomes infected. At that point all the mitigation becomes pointless. The goal of doing this is to lengthen the time it takes for that to happen so we don't overflow hospitals when ever gets it at once. It could be the difference between 500k people dying over 2 years and 4 million people dying in 6 months in the US.
- JamesBarney 7y agohttps://www.flattenthecurve.com/ https://www.flattenthecurve.com/
- Robotbeat 7y agoWhen the number of active cases drops to zero, when basically everyone is tested and contact tracing has resolved all current active cases, when a large fraction of the population (25%-75%) already has had it, or when a vaccine or extremely good antiviral is developed and massively deployed. I can't see any of these happening for months. To do any of them requires massive mobilization that isn't happening in the US. Eventually COVID-19 will probably just be endemic like the seasonal flu. Hopefully it's also mutated by that point to be much less dangerous.