3 ms·
There are a lot of folks on here asserting facts that are not supported by evidence. The actual facts are this: we don't know what the CFR (case fatality rate)
by claytongulick 7y ago
There are a lot of folks on here asserting facts that are not supported by evidence.
The actual facts are this: we don't know what the CFR (case fatality rate) is. CFR is very difficult to accurately calculate, and varies widely with age, location, health conditions and even biological sex (so far, this seems to affect men a bit worse than women). The "2-3%" mortality rate that's being tossed around as fact, is most likely wildly inaccurate.
We don't know what the mutation rate is. Viruses tend to become less lethal over time, because the fatal strains kill the host and don't spread as well, which puts evolutionary pressure on the virus to become milder. Will that happen in this case? We don't know.
We don't know what the appropriate government response is. It's somewhere between welding people into their houses and doing nothing. Which is to say, who knows? Go overboard and everyone criticizes the government for crying wolf and wasting funds. Too little, and everyone criticizes the government for standing by and letting people die. It's a very difficult balance to strike, and I have a lot of sympathy for the folks who are in the position of making these decisions. They'll invariably get some wrong. Hopefully not too many.
IMHO, the best resource to learn about what we do know is the comprehensive Ars Technica article[1], which is frequently updated.
I would like to suggest
a) that folks stop claiming mortality rates in a panicky tone - because we don't know. and
b) that everyone who is reading folks claiming mortality rates and the upcoming apocalypse - reserve judgement until we have more information.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-comprehensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/dont-panic-the-compr...
- jmkni 7y ago+1 for that Ars Technica article, been following the updates as well.