5 ms·

They downplayed the threat in the beginning and strongly advised against travel ban.

ejstronge 7y ago
Hmm, do you have evidence of the threat being downplayed? The initial advice against the travel ban was quite political, but it's the classic case of a nonprofit needing to appease its donors. At any rate, I recall them saying that travel bans are ineffective against stopping viral spread (which has clearly been proven true). Their utility on slowing transmission is less clear, though I've read that travel controls have indeed proven helpful.
simonh 7y ago
The problem with travel bans is that there can be all sorts of unintended side effects that exacerbate the problem. It encourages people to make heavier use of illicit and non-mainstream travel channels that can't be monitored or controlled effectively. It may reduce overall travel, but much of the travel that does occur takes place in conditions that are dramatically more likely to cause problems. Also travel bans can lead to severe humanitarian issue on top of the existing health crisis.
- eveningcoffee 7y ago
  Alternative to the complete ban would have been forced quarantine for every person entering the country like Israel is doing.
  - simonh 7y ago
    This virus is going to be around for a very, very long time. As soon as it spread through the general population in China, it was over. Take China, everyone is talking as though they solved the problem, but it’s only a matter of time before it breaks out there again. In fact it’s almost certainly already happening. Even draconian lockdowns of people entering the country can only delay the inevitable. Now delays can be valuable. The slower the spread, the lower the peak strain on health services, but it cannot be stopped. How long is Israel going to do this, a week? A month? Six months? What about next year when there’s another outbreak? Maybe we’ll have a vaccine by then, but maybe not.
    - eveningcoffee 7y ago
      This is all true, but for now China has developed antibody based fast test kit that can give response in 20 minutes without laboratory testing and knowing them they could produce it in huge quantities. Now they simply have to apply constant mass testing to keep the outbreak under control.
- koheripbal 7y ago
  Trans-oceanic air travel bans work very very well because there are few alternate routes to "illicit" travel. The WHO made an idiotic generalization based on theoretical assumptions that didn't even apply.

Hmm, do you have evidence of the threat being downplayed? The initial advice against the travel ban was quite political, but it's the classic case of a nonprofit needing to appease its donors. At any rate, I recall them saying that travel bans are ineffective against stopping viral spread (which has clearly been proven true). Their utility on slowing transmission is less clear, though I've read that travel controls have indeed proven helpful.

simonh 7y ago

The problem with travel bans is that there can be all sorts of unintended side effects that exacerbate the problem. It encourages people to make heavier use of illicit and non-mainstream travel channels that can't be monitored or controlled effectively. It may reduce overall travel, but much of the travel that does occur takes place in conditions that are dramatically more likely to cause problems. Also travel bans can lead to severe humanitarian issue on top of the existing health crisis.

eveningcoffee 7y ago
Alternative to the complete ban would have been forced quarantine for every person entering the country like Israel is doing.
- simonh 7y ago
  This virus is going to be around for a very, very long time. As soon as it spread through the general population in China, it was over. Take China, everyone is talking as though they solved the problem, but it’s only a matter of time before it breaks out there again. In fact it’s almost certainly already happening. Even draconian lockdowns of people entering the country can only delay the inevitable. Now delays can be valuable. The slower the spread, the lower the peak strain on health services, but it cannot be stopped. How long is Israel going to do this, a week? A month? Six months? What about next year when there’s another outbreak? Maybe we’ll have a vaccine by then, but maybe not.
  - eveningcoffee 7y ago
    This is all true, but for now China has developed antibody based fast test kit that can give response in 20 minutes without laboratory testing and knowing them they could produce it in huge quantities. Now they simply have to apply constant mass testing to keep the outbreak under control.
koheripbal 7y ago
Trans-oceanic air travel bans work very very well because there are few alternate routes to "illicit" travel. The WHO made an idiotic generalization based on theoretical assumptions that didn't even apply.