3 ms·

https://gist.github.com/62726164/a501e13ae9bec8ac8a3b5a440d93803d https://gist.github.com/62726164/a501e13ae9bec8ac8a3b5a440d9... This is the predictive infect

https://gist.github.com/62726164/a501e13ae9bec8ac8a3b5a440d93803d https://gist.github.com/62726164/a501e13ae9bec8ac8a3b5a440d9... This is the predictive infection rate vs the actual CDC daily report.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
joosters 7y ago
Yes, let's trust anonymous user 62726164 on github.
- DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
  just use the official numbers from WHO or JHU and double the value every 4 days. very similar result
  - samstave 7y ago
    Thats what this does - it ysed that, but pulls the daily cdc for comparison. So far, its pretty accurate.
DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
these numbers look really scary when you have them in front of you. it's easy to miss in scales and charts. the date here goes only to May which is even more alarming.
- tejtm 7y ago
  Stops in May because the planetary population is less than the next doubling. This model indicates a few percent drop in the worlds population by summer.
- sgt101 7y ago
  Yes but by then the whole population of THE WORLD is projected as infected. It's a tiny bit silly, this is not what happened in China, it's not what will happen in many places. It may be what happens in the US thou...
  - smegger001 7y ago
    yeah china (after they quit pretending it didn't exist) actually started to quarantine people an mean it, not just pretend its the flu an refuse to test people because it might make the official numbers go up.
- altcognito 7y ago
  That exponential growth. It is amazing to think that the numbers have grown so much that even the most pessimistic number of 10k hidden cases in the US (since we don't test) -- using that number only pushes us out a day globally and not even much locally. For all intents and purposes then, globally we're on a very aggressive path that's going to be almost impossible to stop. But if you've been following Wuhan, Italy, Iran -- you already know this.
- mlavin 7y ago
  Please remember that epidemics must, by rules of reality, logistic curves, not exponential.
  - jhart99 7y ago
    Yes at some point the new infections has to go down if for no other reason than there is no one left to infect. As you said it must be logistic, because after a while infected people simply bump into fewer and fewer uninfected people.
  - altcognito 7y ago
    Thanks, I was wondering what the name of the curve was, because logically there is no way it ends up being totally exponential.
    - mlavin 7y ago
      And to be more specific, you can roughly model it with a Gompertz function: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function
scottlocklin 7y ago
This won't age well.

https://gist.github.com/62726164/a501e13ae9bec8ac8a3b5a440d93803d https://gist.github.com/62726164/a501e13ae9bec8ac8a3b5a440d9... This is the predictive infection rate vs the actual CDC daily report.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

joosters 7y ago

Yes, let's trust anonymous user 62726164 on github.

DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
just use the official numbers from WHO or JHU and double the value every 4 days. very similar result
- samstave 7y ago
  Thats what this does - it ysed that, but pulls the daily cdc for comparison. So far, its pretty accurate.

DyslexicAtheist 7y ago

these numbers look really scary when you have them in front of you. it's easy to miss in scales and charts. the date here goes only to May which is even more alarming.

tejtm 7y ago
Stops in May because the planetary population is less than the next doubling. This model indicates a few percent drop in the worlds population by summer.
sgt101 7y ago
Yes but by then the whole population of THE WORLD is projected as infected. It's a tiny bit silly, this is not what happened in China, it's not what will happen in many places. It may be what happens in the US thou...
- smegger001 7y ago
  yeah china (after they quit pretending it didn't exist) actually started to quarantine people an mean it, not just pretend its the flu an refuse to test people because it might make the official numbers go up.
altcognito 7y ago
That exponential growth. It is amazing to think that the numbers have grown so much that even the most pessimistic number of 10k hidden cases in the US (since we don't test) -- using that number only pushes us out a day globally and not even much locally. For all intents and purposes then, globally we're on a very aggressive path that's going to be almost impossible to stop. But if you've been following Wuhan, Italy, Iran -- you already know this.
mlavin 7y ago
Please remember that epidemics must, by rules of reality, logistic curves, not exponential.
- jhart99 7y ago
  Yes at some point the new infections has to go down if for no other reason than there is no one left to infect. As you said it must be logistic, because after a while infected people simply bump into fewer and fewer uninfected people.
- altcognito 7y ago
  Thanks, I was wondering what the name of the curve was, because logically there is no way it ends up being totally exponential.
  - mlavin 7y ago
    And to be more specific, you can roughly model it with a Gompertz function: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function

scottlocklin 7y ago

This won't age well.