Among others, the numbers are way under-reported. For example, in Iran there's good reason to believe that 1-5% of the population already have it: https://www.t

Among others, the numbers are way under-reported. For example, in Iran there's good reason to believe that 1-5% of the population already have it: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coronavirus-problem-lot-worse-it-seems/607663 https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/irans-coro... Even if you look at Italy, though, and if you assumed that their numbers were accurate (highly unlikely), 20/100k is only 5-6 doublings away from 1% of the population, or as little as 3-4 weeks if not properly contained.