5 ms·

Do you have citations for the “10X as fatal” comment? I am having a hard time understanding the situation because facts are hard to come by.

by fumar 7y ago

baq 7y ago
go to /r/covid19 - it's one of the highest SNR about this clusterf* on the wide internet. plenty of CFR (case fatality ratio) estimation papers there.
mumblemumble 7y ago
That Wiki link would serve as a citation. The table in the "comparisons to other pandemics and epidemics" section gives a point estimate for the case fatality rate of 0.03%. If we assume that the final rate for covid-19 is somewhere in the 1-2% range that's what I last heard, that would mean that "10X as fatal" is an understatement - more like 30-70x as fatal.
- headmelted 7y ago
  About 240x as fatal. The mortality rate is presently 6.01% and fluctuating, making this virus about twice as deadly as the Spanish Flu.
  - zuminator 7y ago
    You've claimed this three times already. Do you have a substantiating link? Furthermore, saying "six point oh one percent" instead of just "approximately six percent" gives a false air of precision that could not possibly hold -- even you admit the estimate is still in flux.
    - headmelted 7y ago
      At the risk of compounding the problem of having posted this in several places, copying into this reply: Taking Johns Hopkins numbers (at time of me writing this): 125,108 confirmed cases 4594 deaths 66,682 recoveries 71,276 outcomes 4,594 / 71,276 = 6.45% have died (deaths / outcomes)
starfallg 7y ago
I edited my comment to remove the 10x claim. The fact is that the numbers are fluid right now and it's wrong to pull a figure out like that. COVID-19 currently has a 3.4% case fatality ratio according to the WHO last week - https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020 https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-... But this is in the middle of the pandemic and is likely to be revised downward as many cases are undiagnosed. The 2009 H1N1 outbreak had a inital case fatality ratio of 0.4%, but revised downwards to 0.026% afterwards due to new evidence of more spread than thought - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8406723.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8406723.stm
- headmelted 7y ago
  “Likely to be revised downward” This is the most dangerous misinformation I’ve heard spread about this disease, and it’s getting repeated everywhere. There is no mountain of undiagnosed asymptomatic cases. It doesn’t exist. WHO has looked. China has looked. South Korea has looked. It’s not there. The mortality rate is presently 6.01% and fluctuating, making this virus about twice as deadly as the Spanish Flu
  - bad_user 7y ago
    In S. Korea the mortality rate is 0.77%. In China outside of the Hubei provence where things have gotten out of control the mortality rate is 0.88%. People in Italy are only admitted in hospitals if they have difficulty breathing by themselves. People that only have a fever or other mild symptoms are sent home, with no test administered. When the outbreak started they were testing asymptomatic cases, trying to be proactive in identifying infected people, but they stopped doing that once things have gotten out of control. And we will see this pattern repeating. What's dangerous is spreading nonsense like a 6% death rate, which is factually not true.
    - headmelted 7y ago
      I’m afraid it’s very much true. South Korea have a lot of early stage cases in those numbers (haven’t died, haven’t recovered), and a very young population on the whole. An undetermined number of those cases will die rather than recover. Multiple sources have looked for these large majorities of asymptomatic cases and did not find them. There is no evidence other than our collective hunches that these cases exist in significant numbers. Taking Johns Hopkins numbers (at time of me writing this): 125,108 confirmed cases 4594 deaths 66,682 recoveries 71,276 outcomes 4,594 / 71,276 = 6.45% have died (deaths / outcomes)
babypuncher 7y ago
It's been estimated to be between 2 and 3% for at least a month now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Epidemiology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Epide...
- headmelted 7y ago
  The mortality rate is presently 6.01% and fluctuating, making this virus about twice as deadly as the Spanish Flu.
  - headmelted 7y ago
    As this is being downvoted, the math I’m using is below. Taking Johns Hopkins numbers (at time of me writing this): 125,108 confirmed cases 4594 deaths 66,682 recoveries 71,276 outcomes 4,594 / 71,276 = 6.45% have died (deaths / outcomes)
    - babypuncher 7y ago
      Those numbers aren't terribly useful since so many cases are mild or even asymptomatic. Most organizations are estimating 2-3% mortality, and are quick to point out that this is probably an overestimation due to the lack of testing in asymptomatic individuals. Basically we are counting every case severe enough to cause death, but only some of the cases that aren't very severe, and that latter group is already a much bigger piece of the pie even among confirmed cases.
SkyPuncher 7y ago
NIH director quoted 10x as fatal today. Data from the China CDC suggests 20x as fatal: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-...

Do you have citations for the “10X as fatal” comment? I am having a hard time understanding the situation because facts are hard to come by.

by fumar 7y ago

Do you have citations for the “10X as fatal” comment? I am having a hard time understanding the situation because facts are hard to come by.

baq 7y ago

go to /r/covid19 - it's one of the highest SNR about this clusterf* on the wide internet. plenty of CFR (case fatality ratio) estimation papers there.

mumblemumble 7y ago

That Wiki link would serve as a citation. The table in the "comparisons to other pandemics and epidemics" section gives a point estimate for the case fatality rate of 0.03%. If we assume that the final rate for covid-19 is somewhere in the 1-2% range that's what I last heard, that would mean that "10X as fatal" is an understatement - more like 30-70x as fatal.

headmelted 7y ago
About 240x as fatal. The mortality rate is presently 6.01% and fluctuating, making this virus about twice as deadly as the Spanish Flu.
- zuminator 7y ago
  You've claimed this three times already. Do you have a substantiating link? Furthermore, saying "six point oh one percent" instead of just "approximately six percent" gives a false air of precision that could not possibly hold -- even you admit the estimate is still in flux.
  - headmelted 7y ago
    At the risk of compounding the problem of having posted this in several places, copying into this reply: Taking Johns Hopkins numbers (at time of me writing this): 125,108 confirmed cases 4594 deaths 66,682 recoveries 71,276 outcomes 4,594 / 71,276 = 6.45% have died (deaths / outcomes)

starfallg 7y ago

I edited my comment to remove the 10x claim. The fact is that the numbers are fluid right now and it's wrong to pull a figure out like that. COVID-19 currently has a 3.4% case fatality ratio according to the WHO last week - https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020 https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-... But this is in the middle of the pandemic and is likely to be revised downward as many cases are undiagnosed. The 2009 H1N1 outbreak had a inital case fatality ratio of 0.4%, but revised downwards to 0.026% afterwards due to new evidence of more spread than thought - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8406723.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8406723.stm

headmelted 7y ago
“Likely to be revised downward” This is the most dangerous misinformation I’ve heard spread about this disease, and it’s getting repeated everywhere. There is no mountain of undiagnosed asymptomatic cases. It doesn’t exist. WHO has looked. China has looked. South Korea has looked. It’s not there. The mortality rate is presently 6.01% and fluctuating, making this virus about twice as deadly as the Spanish Flu
- bad_user 7y ago
  In S. Korea the mortality rate is 0.77%. In China outside of the Hubei provence where things have gotten out of control the mortality rate is 0.88%. People in Italy are only admitted in hospitals if they have difficulty breathing by themselves. People that only have a fever or other mild symptoms are sent home, with no test administered. When the outbreak started they were testing asymptomatic cases, trying to be proactive in identifying infected people, but they stopped doing that once things have gotten out of control. And we will see this pattern repeating. What's dangerous is spreading nonsense like a 6% death rate, which is factually not true.
  - headmelted 7y ago
    I’m afraid it’s very much true. South Korea have a lot of early stage cases in those numbers (haven’t died, haven’t recovered), and a very young population on the whole. An undetermined number of those cases will die rather than recover. Multiple sources have looked for these large majorities of asymptomatic cases and did not find them. There is no evidence other than our collective hunches that these cases exist in significant numbers. Taking Johns Hopkins numbers (at time of me writing this): 125,108 confirmed cases 4594 deaths 66,682 recoveries 71,276 outcomes 4,594 / 71,276 = 6.45% have died (deaths / outcomes)

babypuncher 7y ago

It's been estimated to be between 2 and 3% for at least a month now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Epidemiology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Epide...

headmelted 7y ago
The mortality rate is presently 6.01% and fluctuating, making this virus about twice as deadly as the Spanish Flu.
- headmelted 7y ago
  As this is being downvoted, the math I’m using is below. Taking Johns Hopkins numbers (at time of me writing this): 125,108 confirmed cases 4594 deaths 66,682 recoveries 71,276 outcomes 4,594 / 71,276 = 6.45% have died (deaths / outcomes)
  - babypuncher 7y ago
    Those numbers aren't terribly useful since so many cases are mild or even asymptomatic. Most organizations are estimating 2-3% mortality, and are quick to point out that this is probably an overestimation due to the lack of testing in asymptomatic individuals. Basically we are counting every case severe enough to cause death, but only some of the cases that aren't very severe, and that latter group is already a much bigger piece of the pie even among confirmed cases.

SkyPuncher 7y ago

NIH director quoted 10x as fatal today. Data from the China CDC suggests 20x as fatal: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-...