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No surprise. We had Larry Kudlow saying a week or two ago that the virus was "fully contained" in the US. [1] We had the CDC take down the number of folks test

No surprise. We had Larry Kudlow saying a week or two ago that the virus was "fully contained" in the US. [1] We had the CDC take down the number of folks tested from their website because it was embarrassingly low and different then the Pence / Trump narrative of a million tests. [2] We've had a weird / crazy argument being made by at least some at the top that masks don't help with transmission reduction of a viral disease. While not perfect, they are low cost, low impact and even surgical masks, while likely not used by doctors treating patients may help general population by reducing hand to mouth / nose transmission, transmission from sick to healthy and environment when sneezing and/or touching face mouth and then environment etc. Other countries are going the other way (masks distributed via post offices, mask wearing mandatory in high impact areas etc). [1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/larry-kudlow-says-us-has-contained-the-coronavirus-and-the-economy-is-holding-up-nicely.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/larry-kudlow-says-us-has-con... [2] - https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1234536619270688768 https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1234536619270688768 [3] - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2662657/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2662657/ - Adherence to mask use was associated with a significantly reduced risk of ILI-associated infection.

nabla9 7y ago
(Kudlow is the Director of the National Economic Council and advises WH) The book Superforecasting (2015) uses Larry Kudlow as an example of 'hedgehog forecaster' that is consistently wrong. Not only is Kudlow consistently wrong in forecasting, he also fails nowcasting. When Financial crisis was unfolding Kudlow did not realize that something was going wrong. >The National Bureau of Economic Research later designated December 2007 as the official start of the Great Recession of 2007–9. As the months passed, the economy weakened and worries grew, but Kudlow did not budge. There is no recession and there will be no recession, he insisted. When the White House said the same in April 2008, Kudlow wrote, “President George W. Bush may turn out to be the top economic forecaster in the country.”20 Through the spring and into summer, the economy worsened but Kudlow denied it. “We are in a mental recession, not an actual recession,”21 he wrote, a theme he kept repeating until September 15, when Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, Wall Street was thrown into chaos, the global financial system froze, and people the world over felt like passengers in a plunging jet, eyes wide, fingers digging into armrests.
- Ididntdothis 7y ago
  Kudlow has been criminally wrong on pretty much everything for a long time. I don’t understand why this guy is still getting publicity.
  - nabla9 7y ago
    Because audience likes the way he and others like him talk. From the book: > Not that being wrong hurt Kudlow’s career. In January 2009, with the American economy in a crisis worse than any since the Great Depression, Kudlow’s new show, The Kudlow Report, premiered on CNBC. That too is consistent with the EPJ data, which revealed an inverse correlation between fame and accuracy: the more famous an expert was, the less accurate he was. That’s not because editors, producers, and the public go looking for bad forecasters. They go looking for hedgehogs, who just happen to be bad forecasters. Animated by a Big Idea, hedgehogs tell tight, simple, clear stories that grab and hold audiences. As anyone who has done media training knows, the first rule is “keep it simple, stupid.” Better still, hedgehogs are confident. With their one-perspective analysis, hedgehogs can pile up reasons why they are right—“furthermore,” “moreover”—without considering other perspectives and the pesky doubts and caveats they raise. And so, as EPJ showed, hedgehogs are likelier to say something definitely will or won’t happen. For many audiences, that’s satisfying. People tend to find uncertainty disturbing and “maybe” underscores uncertainty with a bright red crayon. The simplicity and confidence of the hedgehog impairs foresight, but it calms nerves—which is good for the careers of hedgehogs.
- thoraway1010 7y ago
  Wow! Fascinating! So wrong so many times - I did not know this history. You can see how having this guy on TV re-assuring people starts to reduce confidence people have in "authoritative" news sources - and they end up on the internet reading conspiracy theories.
dboreham 7y ago
I have a hunch that the "masks are no use anyway, don't wear them" narrative was disinformation designed to avoid panic buying, people stealing each other's masks and so on.
- jvanderbot 7y ago
  More likely it was to prevent disruption of supply for first responders or medical folks. That ship has sailed.
  - thoraway1010 7y ago
    I think it was for this reason - the focus should really be on increasing supply and encouraging mask use if there is effectiveness. South Korea went this route -> masks are in the post offices and other govt buildings to increase distribution.

nabla9 7y ago

(Kudlow is the Director of the National Economic Council and advises WH) The book Superforecasting (2015) uses Larry Kudlow as an example of 'hedgehog forecaster' that is consistently wrong. Not only is Kudlow consistently wrong in forecasting, he also fails nowcasting. When Financial crisis was unfolding Kudlow did not realize that something was going wrong. >The National Bureau of Economic Research later designated December 2007 as the official start of the Great Recession of 2007–9. As the months passed, the economy weakened and worries grew, but Kudlow did not budge. There is no recession and there will be no recession, he insisted. When the White House said the same in April 2008, Kudlow wrote, “President George W. Bush may turn out to be the top economic forecaster in the country.”20 Through the spring and into summer, the economy worsened but Kudlow denied it. “We are in a mental recession, not an actual recession,”21 he wrote, a theme he kept repeating until September 15, when Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, Wall Street was thrown into chaos, the global financial system froze, and people the world over felt like passengers in a plunging jet, eyes wide, fingers digging into armrests.

Ididntdothis 7y ago
Kudlow has been criminally wrong on pretty much everything for a long time. I don’t understand why this guy is still getting publicity.
- nabla9 7y ago
  Because audience likes the way he and others like him talk. From the book: > Not that being wrong hurt Kudlow’s career. In January 2009, with the American economy in a crisis worse than any since the Great Depression, Kudlow’s new show, The Kudlow Report, premiered on CNBC. That too is consistent with the EPJ data, which revealed an inverse correlation between fame and accuracy: the more famous an expert was, the less accurate he was. That’s not because editors, producers, and the public go looking for bad forecasters. They go looking for hedgehogs, who just happen to be bad forecasters. Animated by a Big Idea, hedgehogs tell tight, simple, clear stories that grab and hold audiences. As anyone who has done media training knows, the first rule is “keep it simple, stupid.” Better still, hedgehogs are confident. With their one-perspective analysis, hedgehogs can pile up reasons why they are right—“furthermore,” “moreover”—without considering other perspectives and the pesky doubts and caveats they raise. And so, as EPJ showed, hedgehogs are likelier to say something definitely will or won’t happen. For many audiences, that’s satisfying. People tend to find uncertainty disturbing and “maybe” underscores uncertainty with a bright red crayon. The simplicity and confidence of the hedgehog impairs foresight, but it calms nerves—which is good for the careers of hedgehogs.
thoraway1010 7y ago
Wow! Fascinating! So wrong so many times - I did not know this history. You can see how having this guy on TV re-assuring people starts to reduce confidence people have in "authoritative" news sources - and they end up on the internet reading conspiracy theories.

dboreham 7y ago

I have a hunch that the "masks are no use anyway, don't wear them" narrative was disinformation designed to avoid panic buying, people stealing each other's masks and so on.

jvanderbot 7y ago
More likely it was to prevent disruption of supply for first responders or medical folks. That ship has sailed.
- thoraway1010 7y ago
  I think it was for this reason - the focus should really be on increasing supply and encouraging mask use if there is effectiveness. South Korea went this route -> masks are in the post offices and other govt buildings to increase distribution.