5 ms·

How many people die each year from flu worldwide? How many times mortality of Covid-19 is bigger?

tigershark 7y ago
Not sure if it makes sense worldwide given that there are a lot of 3rd world countries, but in US the flu has a mortality rate 2 orders of magnitude less than covid-19.
beaunative 7y ago
Mortality rate for COVID-19 is about 2-3% with medical care, and maybe 10% without. For common flu it's roughly 0.1% depends on when and where of the outbreak.
- mcguire 7y ago
  2-3% of confirmed cases or total estimated cases, including mild and asymptomatic cases that aren't reported?
  - beaunative 7y ago
    Most mild cases are reported as they perform temperature check for everyone who enters and exit most if not all enclosures, so unless those people self-quarantined and never go out, they are likely be included in the statistics. Asymptomatic cases are extremely rare, if they infects multiple others, they will likely be identified through retrospection. Overall, I'd say those cases are unlikely to result in significant difference in the estimate.
drusepth 7y ago
According to the CDC, "between 291,000 and 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each year" [1]. This is likely exacerbated by many countries not having ready access to flu vaccines and/or proper hospitalization for those that need it. Compare this to America-specific numbers, where 34,000,000 – 49,000,000 Americans catch a flu-related illness each year, yet only 20,000 – 52,000 result in death [2]. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-esti... [2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...
- ascii_only 7y ago
  I misread parent comment but this was exactly my point. A lot of people die from flu although there is vaccine and mortality rate is at least one magnitude lower than Covid-19 and hospitals are not overwhelmed.
  - vonmoltke 7y ago
    I don't follow. Per the CDC link, seasonal flu hospitalizations result from 1.0% to 1.5% of flu infections. COVID-19 is currently at about 20%. That's a significantly higher hospital load for COVID-18 than for seasonal flu.
    - ascii_only 7y ago
      With season flu hospitals are not overwhelmed but with covid-19 they probably will be so even more people will die.
- tigershark 7y ago
  Yes, so with the same numbers that catch covid it would be 2-5 millions US deaths.
  - mcguire 7y ago
    A 10% death rate?
    - tigershark 7y ago
      4%
      - mcguire 7y ago
        "Yes, so with the same numbers that catch covid it would be 2-5 millions US deaths." So, 1.3-1.9 million US deaths.

Not sure if it makes sense worldwide given that there are a lot of 3rd world countries, but in US the flu has a mortality rate 2 orders of magnitude less than covid-19.

beaunative 7y ago

Mortality rate for COVID-19 is about 2-3% with medical care, and maybe 10% without. For common flu it's roughly 0.1% depends on when and where of the outbreak.

mcguire 7y ago
2-3% of confirmed cases or total estimated cases, including mild and asymptomatic cases that aren't reported?
- beaunative 7y ago
  Most mild cases are reported as they perform temperature check for everyone who enters and exit most if not all enclosures, so unless those people self-quarantined and never go out, they are likely be included in the statistics. Asymptomatic cases are extremely rare, if they infects multiple others, they will likely be identified through retrospection. Overall, I'd say those cases are unlikely to result in significant difference in the estimate.

drusepth 7y ago

According to the CDC, "between 291,000 and 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each year" [1]. This is likely exacerbated by many countries not having ready access to flu vaccines and/or proper hospitalization for those that need it. Compare this to America-specific numbers, where 34,000,000 – 49,000,000 Americans catch a flu-related illness each year, yet only 20,000 – 52,000 result in death [2]. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-esti... [2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-e...

ascii_only 7y ago
I misread parent comment but this was exactly my point. A lot of people die from flu although there is vaccine and mortality rate is at least one magnitude lower than Covid-19 and hospitals are not overwhelmed.
- vonmoltke 7y ago
  I don't follow. Per the CDC link, seasonal flu hospitalizations result from 1.0% to 1.5% of flu infections. COVID-19 is currently at about 20%. That's a significantly higher hospital load for COVID-18 than for seasonal flu.
  - ascii_only 7y ago
    With season flu hospitals are not overwhelmed but with covid-19 they probably will be so even more people will die.
tigershark 7y ago
Yes, so with the same numbers that catch covid it would be 2-5 millions US deaths.
- mcguire 7y ago
  A 10% death rate?
  - tigershark 7y ago
    4%
    - mcguire 7y ago
      "Yes, so with the same numbers that catch covid it would be 2-5 millions US deaths." So, 1.3-1.9 million US deaths.