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The problem with pandemics is that they tend to grow exponentially. What people often forget about exponential growth is that it's actually very slow around t =
by anikan_vader 7y ago
The problem with pandemics is that they tend to grow exponentially. What people often forget about exponential growth is that it's actually very slow around t = 0.
- wrs 7y agoMuch worse is that it’s always slow at t compared to what it’ll be at t+1. No matter how crazy it seems at t.
- hprotagonist 7y agothat is true. what is also true is that nature abhors a naked exponential nearly as much as she abhors a naked singularity. it's nearly always a sigmoid in disguise. What we are trying our damndest to control is the carrying capacity.
- WilliamEdward 7y agoobviously its not going to be exponential forever, no one believes that. The more people get infected, the less people there are to infect. This is obvious. The problem is no one knows where the inflection point is yet, and it depends entirely on how countries react to the illness.
- chadlavi 7y agot=0 was three months ago
- jacobwilliamroy 7y agoI think t is too far from 0 at this point, at least in the U.S. Our ability to test for SARS-CoV 2 has been completely kneecapped since the beginning, and there still aren't enough tests to screen people for the virus. There are documented cases in my area going back to 3 feb. But those cases were diagnosed outside of the country. As in, they had it while they were here, but they were not diagnosed until they flew back home and visited a doctor.