4 ms·

Italian here, north-west. Media are really exaggerating with the situation with daily life and routine, we are allowed to take a walk and go to bars or restaura

Italian here, north-west. Media are really exaggerating with the situation with daily life and routine, we are allowed to take a walk and go to bars or restaurants if there is one meter of distance between people. The real problem is in the hospitals, and for some enterprises who will really have a loss in these weeks (everything about tourism, for example). One of the biggest downsides is that people are not allowed to visit relatives or families in other cities/villages, even if a few kilometers away. We've been promised discounts, taxes, even free subscriptions for ebooks... this lockdown is not so bad, the important is that people really understand why it has been implemented (people here in Italy tend to overreact for every news - it's always apocalyptic).

inciampati 7y ago
The risk is that this lockdown isn't sufficient to modify the progression of the epidemic. Then it will probably have to be modified. Presumably, most transmission is happening in social settings and closed environments. These measures should mitigate that. The change in social behavior would suggest it's working. We'll find out in five days or so if this is working.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
  It's worked elsewhere so there is good reason to hope that it will work in Italy as well. It sucks that we have to wait five days to find out though. What I wouldn't give for a crystal ball right now.
  - mrb 7y ago
    A lockdown has worked in only one place: China. And it worked because the measures were extreme: not allowing people to leave their homes (except once a week to go shopping), banning cars on the roads, closing workplaces, etc. No country is implementing measures nearly as extreme as China, so they won't be as successful in slowing down the epidemic. Before someone mentions South Korea: Korean CDC explained their epidemic curve is bending because they are finishing testing the 200,000 sect members at the center of the epidemic. So fewer tests = fewer detected infections: "in Daegu and Gyeongbuk region, the transmission seems a bit slow down as testing Shincheonji members is almost finished" Source: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030&act=view&list_no=366496&tag=&nPage=1 https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=00... In other words this is NOT a sign Korea is succeeding at containing it. I have seen zero epidemiologists correctly report on this. They all fail to read what KCDC is saying.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - svara 7y ago
      The crucial thing is that the daily growth rate in South Korea averaged over the last 7 days is 1.05 and sinking, a far cry from the stable ~1.33 average in European countries with significant outbreaks. It's outrageous to me that you are still commenting on this after so many people here debunked you (and were thoroughly proven right by now) when you were claiming apocalyptic CFR numbers.
      - 0xffff2 7y ago
        >It's outrageous to me that you are still commenting on this after so many people here debunked you (and were thoroughly proven right by now) when you were claiming apocalyptic CFR numbers. There seems to be some missing context here. What are you talking about?
      - mrb 7y ago
        The growth rate in South Korea is low (1.05) because they are doing fewer tests, as they are finishing testing the sect members, as KCDC explained. IOW it does not reflect the true growth of the outbreak, but is an artifact of testing slowing down. "so many people here debunked you" I was criticized, but the criticism was invalid. My estimates turned out correct according to published studies (note that the high CFR >9% is not the same as the IFR which takes into account underascertainment and is lower around 0.5-1.6%): A CFR of 18% was estimated by https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... A CFR of 33% was estimated by https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an... A CFR of 5.3 or 8.4% (depending on two scenarios) was estimated by https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/523 https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/523 (These reports have been quoted by the WHO in situation report 30 (references 10, 11 and 12) and report 31: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=3346b04f_2 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... and https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200220-sitrep-31-covid-19.pdf https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... ) For reference I have always claimed a WIDE range for the CFR: between 9% and 56% (see https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/ https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/) So two of the three studies support me, and the third one is slightly outside my range (with one scenario where they calculated 8.4% being close to my lower bound of 9%.) Note that these are NOT "apocalyptic estimates", as these three published estimates and my estimate only claim to be valid for one particular case: the CFR (1) for China, (2) as of January/early February, (3) not accounting for underreporting of cases. The CFR does change significantly over time, depending on countries, and depending on the ascertainment rate. The biggest factor is underascertainment, and if we correct for this in China, we calculate a much lower fatality closer to 0.5-1.6%, we call this the Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR). See the last section in my blog post "Updates & Validation": https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/#updates--validation https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/#updates--... Perhaps you thought or assumed I was calculating the IFR, not CFR.
  - mariushn 7y ago
    It worked in China because they really enforce drastic measures. People must stay at home, everybody outside wears a mask (they're made in China, we don't have any), streets, transport & supermarkets are disinfected daily, people who leave hospital have even clothes disinfected etc. Nothing like this happens in EU or USA :(
jlokier 7y ago
> One of the biggest downsides is that people are not allowed to visit relatives or families in other cities/villages, even if a few kilometers away. How does this affect people who depend on personal care from relatives and friends to do daily activities like cooking, cleaning themselves and going to the toilet?
- asdojasdosadsa 7y ago
  You can get a note which has the reason for your travel. If it checks out you are free to travel IIRC. Reasons to travel might be ex. work
- scaglio 7y ago
  This is one of the very few reason for which you can move and assist relatives out of your town.
  - jlokier 7y ago
    That's great to hear, thanks.
glouwbug 7y ago
So you're saying, if you're single already, you're safe from coronavirus at bars already
onetimemanytime 7y ago
>>this lockdown is not so bad, I am glad it isn't--for you. Other people's mileage might vary
SilasX 7y ago
>Italian here, north-west. Media are really exaggerating with the situation with daily life and routine, we are allowed to take a walk and go to bars or restaurants if there is one meter of distance between people. That seems ... like it would be really hard to do consistently adhere to and enforce, especially when it goes against social conventions and the places fill up to capacity.
- bonzini 7y ago
  You'd be surprised: https://i.redd.it/n95poyxjful41.jpg https://i.redd.it/n95poyxjful41.jpg (The comments from Finns on r/europe are hilarious)
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- saagarjha 7y ago
  Presumably people realize why it’s in place and how it benefits them?
  - SilasX 7y ago
    I realize I shouldn't be touching my face, but it's so automatic that I have to keep stopping myself and it's a constant battle.
    - AstralStorm 7y ago
      Time to cover it with a nanosilver gel mask then. Should somewhat disinfect your hands too. ;) (I'm half serious there, if the mask was fabric or plastic, it'd be safe, otherwise nope.)
psk76 7y ago
Modern media is really doing more harm than good. Elevating threat perception for everything has become a daily occurance. One day it's North Korea nukes. Another day it's Russians. Another it's Iran. Another day it's climate, #metoo, immigrants, shooters etc etc. I grew up at a time where the threats were even worse but we weren't surrounded by unqualified people falling over each other inducing anxiety in everyone as a full time job. I think journos need to be kicked off social media or put in timeout zones after a particular message has saturated the network (can be easily be auto triggered). They are trapped by the dynamics of getting likes/views/clicks. Most of them I feel are loosing their minds and are on auto pilot. By themselves they can't exist that trap.
- mumblemumble 7y ago
  Cable TV news was a massive experiment to try and find out if there is actually 24 hours' worth of news that happens every day. One which failed to reject the null hypothesis. Social media journalism is merely a replication study.
  - cafard 7y ago
    The best comment I have seen in a while...
- scotty79 7y ago
  In case of this pandemia exaggeration can have positive influence because people have natural tendency to underestimate how easily common cold and flu spreads.
chupa-chups 7y ago
Tbh, i think we should employ wuhan-style lockdowns globally as early as possible to reduce the rate of infection as low as possible for some defined time span (e.g. for 2 weeks). After this the number of people requiring ICU should be known and stable, and then lift the lockdowns appropriately according to the percentage of people requiring intensive care. I live in germany and currently it seems we're approaching that. The US still seems to be in denial.

inciampati 7y ago

The risk is that this lockdown isn't sufficient to modify the progression of the epidemic. Then it will probably have to be modified. Presumably, most transmission is happening in social settings and closed environments. These measures should mitigate that. The change in social behavior would suggest it's working. We'll find out in five days or so if this is working.

asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
It's worked elsewhere so there is good reason to hope that it will work in Italy as well. It sucks that we have to wait five days to find out though. What I wouldn't give for a crystal ball right now.
- mrb 7y ago
  A lockdown has worked in only one place: China. And it worked because the measures were extreme: not allowing people to leave their homes (except once a week to go shopping), banning cars on the roads, closing workplaces, etc. No country is implementing measures nearly as extreme as China, so they won't be as successful in slowing down the epidemic. Before someone mentions South Korea: Korean CDC explained their epidemic curve is bending because they are finishing testing the 200,000 sect members at the center of the epidemic. So fewer tests = fewer detected infections: "in Daegu and Gyeongbuk region, the transmission seems a bit slow down as testing Shincheonji members is almost finished" Source: https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030&act=view&list_no=366496&tag=&nPage=1 https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=00... In other words this is NOT a sign Korea is succeeding at containing it. I have seen zero epidemiologists correctly report on this. They all fail to read what KCDC is saying.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - svara 7y ago
    The crucial thing is that the daily growth rate in South Korea averaged over the last 7 days is 1.05 and sinking, a far cry from the stable ~1.33 average in European countries with significant outbreaks. It's outrageous to me that you are still commenting on this after so many people here debunked you (and were thoroughly proven right by now) when you were claiming apocalyptic CFR numbers.
    - 0xffff2 7y ago
      >It's outrageous to me that you are still commenting on this after so many people here debunked you (and were thoroughly proven right by now) when you were claiming apocalyptic CFR numbers. There seems to be some missing context here. What are you talking about?
    - mrb 7y ago
      The growth rate in South Korea is low (1.05) because they are doing fewer tests, as they are finishing testing the sect members, as KCDC explained. IOW it does not reflect the true growth of the outbreak, but is an artifact of testing slowing down. "so many people here debunked you" I was criticized, but the criticism was invalid. My estimates turned out correct according to published studies (note that the high CFR >9% is not the same as the IFR which takes into account underascertainment and is lower around 0.5-1.6%): A CFR of 18% was estimated by https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... A CFR of 33% was estimated by https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an... A CFR of 5.3 or 8.4% (depending on two scenarios) was estimated by https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/523 https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/523 (These reports have been quoted by the WHO in situation report 30 (references 10, 11 and 12) and report 31: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=3346b04f_2 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... and https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200220-sitrep-31-covid-19.pdf https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... ) For reference I have always claimed a WIDE range for the CFR: between 9% and 56% (see https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/ https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/) So two of the three studies support me, and the third one is slightly outside my range (with one scenario where they calculated 8.4% being close to my lower bound of 9%.) Note that these are NOT "apocalyptic estimates", as these three published estimates and my estimate only claim to be valid for one particular case: the CFR (1) for China, (2) as of January/early February, (3) not accounting for underreporting of cases. The CFR does change significantly over time, depending on countries, and depending on the ascertainment rate. The biggest factor is underascertainment, and if we correct for this in China, we calculate a much lower fatality closer to 0.5-1.6%, we call this the Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR). See the last section in my blog post "Updates & Validation": https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/#updates--validation https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/#updates--... Perhaps you thought or assumed I was calculating the IFR, not CFR.
- mariushn 7y ago
  It worked in China because they really enforce drastic measures. People must stay at home, everybody outside wears a mask (they're made in China, we don't have any), streets, transport & supermarkets are disinfected daily, people who leave hospital have even clothes disinfected etc. Nothing like this happens in EU or USA :(

jlokier 7y ago

> One of the biggest downsides is that people are not allowed to visit relatives or families in other cities/villages, even if a few kilometers away. How does this affect people who depend on personal care from relatives and friends to do daily activities like cooking, cleaning themselves and going to the toilet?

asdojasdosadsa 7y ago
You can get a note which has the reason for your travel. If it checks out you are free to travel IIRC. Reasons to travel might be ex. work
scaglio 7y ago
This is one of the very few reason for which you can move and assist relatives out of your town.
- jlokier 7y ago
  That's great to hear, thanks.

glouwbug 7y ago

So you're saying, if you're single already, you're safe from coronavirus at bars already

onetimemanytime 7y ago

>>this lockdown is not so bad, I am glad it isn't--for you. Other people's mileage might vary

SilasX 7y ago

>Italian here, north-west. Media are really exaggerating with the situation with daily life and routine, we are allowed to take a walk and go to bars or restaurants if there is one meter of distance between people. That seems ... like it would be really hard to do consistently adhere to and enforce, especially when it goes against social conventions and the places fill up to capacity.

bonzini 7y ago
You'd be surprised: https://i.redd.it/n95poyxjful41.jpg https://i.redd.it/n95poyxjful41.jpg (The comments from Finns on r/europe are hilarious)
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
saagarjha 7y ago
Presumably people realize why it’s in place and how it benefits them?
- SilasX 7y ago
  I realize I shouldn't be touching my face, but it's so automatic that I have to keep stopping myself and it's a constant battle.
  - AstralStorm 7y ago
    Time to cover it with a nanosilver gel mask then. Should somewhat disinfect your hands too. ;) (I'm half serious there, if the mask was fabric or plastic, it'd be safe, otherwise nope.)

psk76 7y ago

Modern media is really doing more harm than good. Elevating threat perception for everything has become a daily occurance. One day it's North Korea nukes. Another day it's Russians. Another it's Iran. Another day it's climate, #metoo, immigrants, shooters etc etc. I grew up at a time where the threats were even worse but we weren't surrounded by unqualified people falling over each other inducing anxiety in everyone as a full time job. I think journos need to be kicked off social media or put in timeout zones after a particular message has saturated the network (can be easily be auto triggered). They are trapped by the dynamics of getting likes/views/clicks. Most of them I feel are loosing their minds and are on auto pilot. By themselves they can't exist that trap.

mumblemumble 7y ago
Cable TV news was a massive experiment to try and find out if there is actually 24 hours' worth of news that happens every day. One which failed to reject the null hypothesis. Social media journalism is merely a replication study.
- cafard 7y ago
  The best comment I have seen in a while...
scotty79 7y ago
In case of this pandemia exaggeration can have positive influence because people have natural tendency to underestimate how easily common cold and flu spreads.

chupa-chups 7y ago

Tbh, i think we should employ wuhan-style lockdowns globally as early as possible to reduce the rate of infection as low as possible for some defined time span (e.g. for 2 weeks). After this the number of people requiring ICU should be known and stable, and then lift the lockdowns appropriately according to the percentage of people requiring intensive care. I live in germany and currently it seems we're approaching that. The US still seems to be in denial.