3 ms·
In estimating the real fatality rate of this virus as 1%, there is a built-in assumption that all infections have been reported as cases, which seems wildly opt
by _-___________-_ 7y ago
In estimating the real fatality rate of this virus as 1%, there is a built-in assumption that all infections have been reported as cases, which seems wildly optimistic. Given that >=80% of infections may be asymptomatic or have minor symptoms, it's very likely that the case fatality rate is much higher than the real fatality rate.
- dx034 7y agoCurrent mortality rates are around 3-4%. A mortality rate of 1% already assumes a large number of unreported cases. I saw estimates of 0.7% but they seem wildly optimistic in how many people having reported.
- _-___________-_ 7y ago1% only assumes 66-75% unreported cases. With estimates of asymptomatic/low-severity infections above 80%, the ratio of infections that never get reported as cases is likely to be higher than that.