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The rate at which this has spread in Italy is a two sided coin in my opinion. It means the "found" cases are grossly under representative, and probably deaths

The rate at which this has spread in Italy is a two sided coin in my opinion. It means the "found" cases are grossly under representative, and probably deaths is a more meaningful statistic. But on the upside it also means the virus is probably not as lethal as the 3% figure, as it has passed through many people uncounted.

austincheney 7y ago
Absolutely agree. Looking at Italy as a case study we need to limit the spread of this virus only for the reason of reducing stress on the medical industry at any given single moment while accepting everyone is likely to encounter this thing eventually. Aside from slowing the rate of transmission the guidance, from the medical experts, says to treat this no differently than the flu. The reality is that this virus will be everywhere because it is at least as transmissible as the flu but with more benign symptoms and a longer incubation period. The incubation period for the flu is generally 5-7 days but the early data from China was suggesting an incubation period of 10-14 days for corvid19. Both of those numbers are variable upon a given snapshot and environmental factors. On the other hand the earlier people encounter this thing though means the earlier a population can build the necessary mass immunity resistance.
sagichmal 7y ago
> But on the upside it also means the virus is probably not as lethal as the 3% figure, as it has passed through many people uncounted. Lethality appears to be a function of the availability of health care. > This is what you can conclude: countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China); countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...

austincheney 7y ago

Absolutely agree. Looking at Italy as a case study we need to limit the spread of this virus only for the reason of reducing stress on the medical industry at any given single moment while accepting everyone is likely to encounter this thing eventually. Aside from slowing the rate of transmission the guidance, from the medical experts, says to treat this no differently than the flu. The reality is that this virus will be everywhere because it is at least as transmissible as the flu but with more benign symptoms and a longer incubation period. The incubation period for the flu is generally 5-7 days but the early data from China was suggesting an incubation period of 10-14 days for corvid19. Both of those numbers are variable upon a given snapshot and environmental factors. On the other hand the earlier people encounter this thing though means the earlier a population can build the necessary mass immunity resistance.

sagichmal 7y ago

> But on the upside it also means the virus is probably not as lethal as the 3% figure, as it has passed through many people uncounted. Lethality appears to be a function of the availability of health care. > This is what you can conclude: countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China); countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...