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> But with each outbreak more people will acquire immunity, and eventually the peaks will be lower than capacity. Last time I checked there are at least 3 or 4
by saiya-jin 7y ago
> But with each outbreak more people will acquire immunity, and eventually the peaks will be lower than capacity.
Last time I checked there are at least 3 or 4 different strains circulating now. That's why some folks who got cured got it again. So don't have such naive hopes that all will be rosy on its own soon.
If the story will be similar to flu, we're pretty much fucked - every year the strain is so different that prior vaccinations/immunity doesn't work on them. I certainly hope that's not the case, too early to tell.
- op00to 7y agoTwo strains. Stop spreading rumors.
- animal531 7y agoI'm looking at: https://nextstrain.org/ncov https://nextstrain.org/ncov What defines a strain? I know about the L/S sub-types, but there have been a great number of splits.
- saiya-jin 7y agoExactly. Anyway, the topic is that simply getting through the infection doesn't grant immunity so one doesn't have to care about covid-19 anymore. Plus thinking that when we have few (even if 2) variants of the virus within first 3 months there won't be any more mutations is a bit naive IMHO.
- ajross 7y agoRealistically it's more than that, though. Viruses mutate rapidly and this one is into the hundreds of thousands of human transmissions now and still picking up steam. We just don't have the PCR bandwith available to sequence them as fast as they're spreading. Pretty much any direct pronouncement on the "kinds" of SARS-CoV-2 is going to be speculation, so it's all "rumors". But strains don't correlate perfectly to immune respnse, so the upthread point about reinfection risk remains speculation. We just don't know yet. But all endemic viruses eventually reach equilibrium with the population immune response (and vaccination regime), even if it requires regular updates a-la the yearly change in flu shots.