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Battery supply was mentioned several times in the replies, but I have a hard time following the argument. Building batteries seems to be a simple process, at

by w-m 7y ago

Battery supply was mentioned several times in the replies, but I have a hard time following the argument. Building batteries seems to be a simple process, at least compared to building the rest of the car: https://youtu.be/PZBQzLfCKpw https://youtu.be/PZBQzLfCKpw As there is more demand, it seems straightforward to bring up Gigafactory-sized new assembly lines quickly.

koffiezet 7y ago
You can build huge factories to build batteries, but getting the raw materials becomes tricky when one manufacturer secured the supplies for that way ahead of you, and you'll end up in second place.
- w-m 7y ago
  I haven't heard about Tesla/Panasonic securing any raw materials years in advance. Would that even be economically sensible? There's lots of investment in R&D to try to reduce certain ingredients (cobalt), but for now it's probably a level playing field, everybody is in the same position in fighting to procure the raw materials.
jillesvangurp 7y ago
It's a simple process conceptually but involves a lot of technology, some of which is patented, all of which involves access to a lot of lithium and other scarce materials and there's only so much of it on the market that isn't already locked up in contracts with people that got in early. And that's just the hardware; it involves software too. So no, it's neither simple nor a commodity. It's still doable but just not in a hurry. Five years is not a lot of time to build this up from nothing. It took Tesla a decade plus to get where they are now. A lot of manufacturers don't have the know-how, technology, factories, or access to raw material and are competing for contracts with the same sets of suppliers who are already shipping as fast as they can. The result is a lot of compliance and concept cars that were never even meant to be profitable and definitely not shipping in meaningful numbers because the manufacturer never planned to ship meaningful numbers and does not have the ability to fix that.

by w-m 7y ago

koffiezet 7y ago

You can build huge factories to build batteries, but getting the raw materials becomes tricky when one manufacturer secured the supplies for that way ahead of you, and you'll end up in second place.

w-m 7y ago
I haven't heard about Tesla/Panasonic securing any raw materials years in advance. Would that even be economically sensible? There's lots of investment in R&D to try to reduce certain ingredients (cobalt), but for now it's probably a level playing field, everybody is in the same position in fighting to procure the raw materials.

jillesvangurp 7y ago

It's a simple process conceptually but involves a lot of technology, some of which is patented, all of which involves access to a lot of lithium and other scarce materials and there's only so much of it on the market that isn't already locked up in contracts with people that got in early. And that's just the hardware; it involves software too. So no, it's neither simple nor a commodity. It's still doable but just not in a hurry. Five years is not a lot of time to build this up from nothing. It took Tesla a decade plus to get where they are now. A lot of manufacturers don't have the know-how, technology, factories, or access to raw material and are competing for contracts with the same sets of suppliers who are already shipping as fast as they can. The result is a lot of compliance and concept cars that were never even meant to be profitable and definitely not shipping in meaningful numbers because the manufacturer never planned to ship meaningful numbers and does not have the ability to fix that.