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This is truly interesting because obviously virus does not prejudice. So what is so special about Italy than other countries like Germany or France or Spain doe

This is truly interesting because obviously virus does not prejudice. So what is so special about Italy than other countries like Germany or France or Spain doesn't not have same size of an outbreak? Initially I was thinking its the testing part. If you test nobody then nobody is sick. But that's not the case because with such high level of mortality, we would know that people are dying from COVID-19. So my take is - what I read via WHO, is that this virus has two or more strains, one more deadly than another. So its quite possible that one or more passengers from China traveled to Italy with that more deadly type in them. Of course next logical question would be - is it only in Italy or we have those in other countries and perhaps incubation period is longer? That's probably a billion dollar question...

umanwizard 7y ago
Nothing is special about Italy; they were just unlucky enough that the spread started there earlier than elsewhere. According to current trends, France and Spain will be where Italy is now in about week.
- hcknwscommenter 7y ago
  Exactly, joering is entirely wrong in his bizarre analysis. Outbreaks have a stochastic quality to them. If a certain individual doesn't hit a certain country first, you are likely to see false evidence that that country hit later has some sort of inborn advantage in fighting the virus. This is nonsense until proven otherwise. Italy has a huge trade with China in textiles, leathergoods, and machine tools. There is a significantly more cross-border travel between the two countries than say France. It is likely only a matter of a week or two before France and Germany and Spain and then the UK experience similar numbers as Italy. That is, unless those later developing countries prepare by implementing social distancing and robust testing early. It looks like they are, so hopefully the growth rate will be a lot slower and health care systems will not be overwhelmed. In the U.S., we are a bit behind and it may go quite badly or our isolation and lower density may provide the needed slowing to implement effective systems. We shall see.

umanwizard 7y ago

Nothing is special about Italy; they were just unlucky enough that the spread started there earlier than elsewhere. According to current trends, France and Spain will be where Italy is now in about week.

hcknwscommenter 7y ago
Exactly, joering is entirely wrong in his bizarre analysis. Outbreaks have a stochastic quality to them. If a certain individual doesn't hit a certain country first, you are likely to see false evidence that that country hit later has some sort of inborn advantage in fighting the virus. This is nonsense until proven otherwise. Italy has a huge trade with China in textiles, leathergoods, and machine tools. There is a significantly more cross-border travel between the two countries than say France. It is likely only a matter of a week or two before France and Germany and Spain and then the UK experience similar numbers as Italy. That is, unless those later developing countries prepare by implementing social distancing and robust testing early. It looks like they are, so hopefully the growth rate will be a lot slower and health care systems will not be overwhelmed. In the U.S., we are a bit behind and it may go quite badly or our isolation and lower density may provide the needed slowing to implement effective systems. We shall see.