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>Seems to be a prediction at the dramatic end in particular if the quick lockdowns and quarantines are kept up. I've read several epidemiologists that said stu
by molmalo 7y ago
>Seems to be a prediction at the dramatic end in particular if the quick lockdowns and quarantines are kept up.
I've read several epidemiologists that said stuff among the lines that, while the objective is not to generate panic, leaders should not minimize the scale of this outbreak, and the consequences of downplaying it are severe. When politicians say stuff like "this is just another flu", then lots of people continue their lives as usual, and thus, it gets almost impossible to slow down the propagation.
Maybe it's OK to throw those numbers, as a wake up call for society. If the government ordered a full lock-down, many people that still think "it's just a flu" would get mad... but if she first announces this, then maybe the rest of society would be more open to accept the consequences of a lock-down. In the end, it's politics.
- m0zg 7y agoHow long do you propose we maintain this "lockdown"?
- molmalo 7y agoI would look into China's experience for guidance. I know the costs would be monumental, so it's not an easy decision, and would not like to be in her shoes right now. But if the alternative is what Merkel suggests...
- m0zg 7y agoBut this virus won't go away until a significant fraction of the population gets infected and heals. It'll come back in the fall when it's colder and hit again. I'm afraid the only principled solution here is to develop vaccines and working antivirals in the next few months, which by "normal" standards is completely unprecedented.