4 ms·

Last reports I saw had us 11 days behind Italy based on known cases. We are probably even closer with unknown cases. I think tomorrow is the day to ensure you

by slg 7y ago

Last reports I saw had us 11 days behind Italy based on known cases. We are probably even closer with unknown cases. I think tomorrow is the day to ensure you have a couple weeks of food and incidental supplies in your home if you haven't done so already. I don't think there is any hope of us slowing things down as successfully as they have in South Korea with their widespread testing.

nostromo 7y ago
This disease is fatal for people that are very old or otherwise ill. In Italy the average age of fatal infection is 81, which is older than the life expectancy for an Italian man. For 80% of people infected it's a mild cold or flu, not requiring hospitalization. I realize HN is full of Zero Hedge gold bugs, but this doesn't strike me as the apocalypse.
- refurb 7y ago
  You’re getting downvoted, but none of your facts are inaccurate.
- dx034 7y ago
  That's absolutely true, but the problem with this virus is not mortality but hospitalization. I read numbers yesterday that in Bergamo, up to 30% of ICU patients are under 60. Those are very likely to survive but need ICU treatment for up to 2 weeks. Most European countries have already accepted that most will get infected at some point (see Merkel's statement yesterday). It's all about flattening the curve to make sure hospitals have capacity. If we manage that, mortality could stay at reasonable levels. But we have no idea how high mortality rates could go if people with severe symptoms would need to stay at home.
  - yread 7y ago
    median age of hospitalization in Italy is 65 https://twitter.com/Dr_FarrisD/status/1237499092835676162 https://twitter.com/Dr_FarrisD/status/1237499092835676162
    - dx034 7y ago
      And median age of death >80. Which exactly proves the point, younger people (as in not seniors) also need hospital treatment but recover much more likely.
      - yread 7y ago
        I wasn't arguing against your point. I think that the median is a better data point for your argument
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
leggomylibro 7y ago
See, there's the mass panic I was talking about. We're not expecting an asteroid or a tsunami, people can still buy groceries in South Korea / Italy / Wuhan / etc... Sure you should stock up on essential medicines that you might need if you have to stay in for awhile, but I wish people would knock off the chicken little attitudes. It doesn't help, and it makes people stop listening to reasonable precautions when the sky consistently fails to fall. Thank you for the example; please don't go spouting this stuff to your friends and family. Just tell them to wash their hands and keep their distance from others instead of advocating full-scale panic.
- dcolkitt 7y ago
  The point of stocking up on food is to avoid the need to go to the grocery store during the highly infectious phase of the pandemic. The best way to minimize the chance is to not leave the house. The best way to avoid leaving the house is to have enough supplies in for a few weeks.
  - Der_Einzige 7y ago
    I'm surprised that the comment like this even had to be posted. That's exactly why you do it
- joering2 7y ago
  I don't think his issue is with lack of food in stores. I think his issue is that you would definitely not want to go to do your daily grocery in a city with such large outbreak as Wuhan. Better stock up and when the high infection ratio hits in your town, (if ever (?) then at least you don't have to expose yourself by going outside.
- slg 7y ago
  Just because you can leave your home doesn't mean you should. I don't say this just for personal precaution. I saw this so people can act selflessly and self-quarantine at the first sign of problems. Most of the people reading this are probably healthy people in their 20s-50s. The virus doesn't pose too much of a threat to us. But these people can also be prime carriers of the disease and increase its spread. If you or someone in your house gets sick, you really shouldn't be going out in public to buy groceries even if it is technically still possible to do it. And for the record here is a 12 day old article that says Italy has had 650 cases and 17 deaths[1]. The CDC website currently has us at 647 cases and 25 deaths [2] and plenty of other places are reporting higher numbers[3]. I don't think I am raising a false alarm here. [1] - https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/27/809984502/coronavirus-update-japan-is-closing-all-its-schools-for-a-month https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/27/8099845... [2] - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html [3] - https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-live-u-s-europe-brace-infection-spread-italy-n1153801 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronav...
briandear 7y ago
Those in the Bay Area should already have that: it’s called earthquake preparedness. People really need to calm down. This isn’t Ebola but people are acting like it is.
- yibg 7y ago
  Ebola would be easier to manage. Yes it’s much more deadly if you get it but it’s also a hell of a lot harder to get.

by slg 7y ago

nostromo 7y ago

This disease is fatal for people that are very old or otherwise ill. In Italy the average age of fatal infection is 81, which is older than the life expectancy for an Italian man. For 80% of people infected it's a mild cold or flu, not requiring hospitalization. I realize HN is full of Zero Hedge gold bugs, but this doesn't strike me as the apocalypse.

refurb 7y ago
You’re getting downvoted, but none of your facts are inaccurate.
dx034 7y ago
That's absolutely true, but the problem with this virus is not mortality but hospitalization. I read numbers yesterday that in Bergamo, up to 30% of ICU patients are under 60. Those are very likely to survive but need ICU treatment for up to 2 weeks. Most European countries have already accepted that most will get infected at some point (see Merkel's statement yesterday). It's all about flattening the curve to make sure hospitals have capacity. If we manage that, mortality could stay at reasonable levels. But we have no idea how high mortality rates could go if people with severe symptoms would need to stay at home.
- yread 7y ago
  median age of hospitalization in Italy is 65 https://twitter.com/Dr_FarrisD/status/1237499092835676162 https://twitter.com/Dr_FarrisD/status/1237499092835676162
  - dx034 7y ago
    And median age of death >80. Which exactly proves the point, younger people (as in not seniors) also need hospital treatment but recover much more likely.
    - yread 7y ago
      I wasn't arguing against your point. I think that the median is a better data point for your argument

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

leggomylibro 7y ago

See, there's the mass panic I was talking about. We're not expecting an asteroid or a tsunami, people can still buy groceries in South Korea / Italy / Wuhan / etc... Sure you should stock up on essential medicines that you might need if you have to stay in for awhile, but I wish people would knock off the chicken little attitudes. It doesn't help, and it makes people stop listening to reasonable precautions when the sky consistently fails to fall. Thank you for the example; please don't go spouting this stuff to your friends and family. Just tell them to wash their hands and keep their distance from others instead of advocating full-scale panic.

dcolkitt 7y ago
The point of stocking up on food is to avoid the need to go to the grocery store during the highly infectious phase of the pandemic. The best way to minimize the chance is to not leave the house. The best way to avoid leaving the house is to have enough supplies in for a few weeks.
- Der_Einzige 7y ago
  I'm surprised that the comment like this even had to be posted. That's exactly why you do it
joering2 7y ago
I don't think his issue is with lack of food in stores. I think his issue is that you would definitely not want to go to do your daily grocery in a city with such large outbreak as Wuhan. Better stock up and when the high infection ratio hits in your town, (if ever (?) then at least you don't have to expose yourself by going outside.
slg 7y ago
Just because you can leave your home doesn't mean you should. I don't say this just for personal precaution. I saw this so people can act selflessly and self-quarantine at the first sign of problems. Most of the people reading this are probably healthy people in their 20s-50s. The virus doesn't pose too much of a threat to us. But these people can also be prime carriers of the disease and increase its spread. If you or someone in your house gets sick, you really shouldn't be going out in public to buy groceries even if it is technically still possible to do it. And for the record here is a 12 day old article that says Italy has had 650 cases and 17 deaths[1]. The CDC website currently has us at 647 cases and 25 deaths [2] and plenty of other places are reporting higher numbers[3]. I don't think I am raising a false alarm here. [1] - https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/27/809984502/coronavirus-update-japan-is-closing-all-its-schools-for-a-month https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/27/8099845... [2] - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html [3] - https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-live-u-s-europe-brace-infection-spread-italy-n1153801 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronav...

briandear 7y ago

Those in the Bay Area should already have that: it’s called earthquake preparedness. People really need to calm down. This isn’t Ebola but people are acting like it is.

yibg 7y ago
Ebola would be easier to manage. Yes it’s much more deadly if you get it but it’s also a hell of a lot harder to get.