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> Around 15% of the people who get COVID-19 need ICU I'm usually the doomssayer, but that's 15% of people who are diagnosed. Usually people who are asymptomat
by nullc 7y ago
> Around 15% of the people who get COVID-19 need ICU
I'm usually the doomssayer, but that's 15% of people who are diagnosed. Usually people who are asymptomatic or nearly asymptomatic don't get diagnosed.
Only a few countries have testing programs widespread enough to start estimating case vs infection rates... and certainly not the US, where there are plenty of people who have been obviously infected who are still not included in the official counts because of god-knows-what-the-CDC-is-doing.
What is clear enough is that whatever the rate of serious cases are, it's more than high enough to overload the hospitals-- just as is happening now in Italy. So I fully agree with your point, I just don't want to see if lost in the noise because some people will notice the 15% claim is almost certainly an overestimate.
- freeone3000 7y agoCDC is keeping the numbers down, as requested.
- garmaine 7y agoOther countries don't have the problem with widespread testing that the US has. That number comes from China, Italy, and South Korea. 15% of people who show symptoms need intensive medical care.
- nullc 7y agoYes, but what percentage of people who get infected need intensive medical care? :) The difference matters because it's likely that 60-70% of the population or so will eventually be infected. But it won't be 15% of that which need intensive medical care but some lesser number because some infections will be asymptomatic or nearly so.
- garmaine 7y agoIn South Korea and China they are testing everyone who has been exposed to the virus. Obviously they're not testing everybody so some are slipping through, but these are broad tests that are capturing some of the asymptomatic cases as well. If you want you can calibrate against the Diamond Princess numbers.