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Yeah, it's pretty clear by this point that the virus has been spreading widely in the States for some time. Such is life. Just wait until they actually start t

Yeah, it's pretty clear by this point that the virus has been spreading widely in the States for some time. Such is life. Just wait until they actually start testing people in earnest; the infected numbers will skyrocket in a very short period of time, causing another stock crash and more mass panic. It'll probably be at least another few weeks before it's time to buy with both fists, imo.

usaar333 7y ago
Are people not aware at this point that the US will look like Italy/South Korea in a few weeks time? Hence, the hoarding of goods that has already begun..
- slg 7y ago
  Last reports I saw had us 11 days behind Italy based on known cases. We are probably even closer with unknown cases. I think tomorrow is the day to ensure you have a couple weeks of food and incidental supplies in your home if you haven't done so already. I don't think there is any hope of us slowing things down as successfully as they have in South Korea with their widespread testing.
  - nostromo 7y ago
    This disease is fatal for people that are very old or otherwise ill. In Italy the average age of fatal infection is 81, which is older than the life expectancy for an Italian man. For 80% of people infected it's a mild cold or flu, not requiring hospitalization. I realize HN is full of Zero Hedge gold bugs, but this doesn't strike me as the apocalypse.
    - refurb 7y ago
      You’re getting downvoted, but none of your facts are inaccurate.
    - dx034 7y ago
      That's absolutely true, but the problem with this virus is not mortality but hospitalization. I read numbers yesterday that in Bergamo, up to 30% of ICU patients are under 60. Those are very likely to survive but need ICU treatment for up to 2 weeks. Most European countries have already accepted that most will get infected at some point (see Merkel's statement yesterday). It's all about flattening the curve to make sure hospitals have capacity. If we manage that, mortality could stay at reasonable levels. But we have no idea how high mortality rates could go if people with severe symptoms would need to stay at home.
      - yread 7y ago
        median age of hospitalization in Italy is 65 https://twitter.com/Dr_FarrisD/status/1237499092835676162 https://twitter.com/Dr_FarrisD/status/1237499092835676162
        dx034 7y ago
        And median age of death >80. Which exactly proves the point, younger people (as in not seniors) also need hospital treatment but recover much more likely.
        yread 7y ago
        I wasn't arguing against your point. I think that the median is a better data point for your argument
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - leggomylibro 7y ago
    See, there's the mass panic I was talking about. We're not expecting an asteroid or a tsunami, people can still buy groceries in South Korea / Italy / Wuhan / etc... Sure you should stock up on essential medicines that you might need if you have to stay in for awhile, but I wish people would knock off the chicken little attitudes. It doesn't help, and it makes people stop listening to reasonable precautions when the sky consistently fails to fall. Thank you for the example; please don't go spouting this stuff to your friends and family. Just tell them to wash their hands and keep their distance from others instead of advocating full-scale panic.
    - dcolkitt 7y ago
      The point of stocking up on food is to avoid the need to go to the grocery store during the highly infectious phase of the pandemic. The best way to minimize the chance is to not leave the house. The best way to avoid leaving the house is to have enough supplies in for a few weeks.
      - Der_Einzige 7y ago
        I'm surprised that the comment like this even had to be posted. That's exactly why you do it
    - joering2 7y ago
      I don't think his issue is with lack of food in stores. I think his issue is that you would definitely not want to go to do your daily grocery in a city with such large outbreak as Wuhan. Better stock up and when the high infection ratio hits in your town, (if ever (?) then at least you don't have to expose yourself by going outside.
    - slg 7y ago
      Just because you can leave your home doesn't mean you should. I don't say this just for personal precaution. I saw this so people can act selflessly and self-quarantine at the first sign of problems. Most of the people reading this are probably healthy people in their 20s-50s. The virus doesn't pose too much of a threat to us. But these people can also be prime carriers of the disease and increase its spread. If you or someone in your house gets sick, you really shouldn't be going out in public to buy groceries even if it is technically still possible to do it. And for the record here is a 12 day old article that says Italy has had 650 cases and 17 deaths[1]. The CDC website currently has us at 647 cases and 25 deaths [2] and plenty of other places are reporting higher numbers[3]. I don't think I am raising a false alarm here. [1] - https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/27/809984502/coronavirus-update-japan-is-closing-all-its-schools-for-a-month https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/27/8099845... [2] - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html [3] - https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-live-u-s-europe-brace-infection-spread-italy-n1153801 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronav...
  - briandear 7y ago
    Those in the Bay Area should already have that: it’s called earthquake preparedness. People really need to calm down. This isn’t Ebola but people are acting like it is.
    - yibg 7y ago
      Ebola would be easier to manage. Yes it’s much more deadly if you get it but it’s also a hell of a lot harder to get.
- realusername 7y ago
  It's safe to say that the US will likely look worse than Italy or South Korea since additionally the US also has: - Inconvenient labour laws regarding sickness, people are and will be afraid to take sick leave - A lack of public healthcare, the US system does not seem designed for a collective approach. - A higher rate of diabetes compared to the rest of the developed world which seems to be affecting quite a lot the impact of the virus.
  - DEADBEEFC0FFEE 7y ago
    Also a stronger aversion to control orders. Can you even imagine telling someone they cannot buy as many X as they want? Or locking down a city? I find it fascinating that authoritarian regimes have an advantage in that they can rapidly implement lockdown. Freedom has a price.
    - realusername 7y ago
      I would not say that authoritarian regimes necessary have advantages, Taiwan and Japan seems to handle this crisis much better than Iran for example. Culture does play a big role into that indeed though, if you can manage to close off events & cities and having your citizens obey all the health precautions, it has a big impact on how it spread.
    - TACIXAT 7y ago
      My local Costco is already telling people they can only buy 2 waters, paper towels, and disinfecting wipes. No one is rioting.
      - dnautics 7y ago
        Maybe Costco is an authoritarian regime!
        pintxo 7y ago
        As almost all business, it is.
- joering2 7y ago
  This is truly interesting because obviously virus does not prejudice. So what is so special about Italy than other countries like Germany or France or Spain doesn't not have same size of an outbreak? Initially I was thinking its the testing part. If you test nobody then nobody is sick. But that's not the case because with such high level of mortality, we would know that people are dying from COVID-19. So my take is - what I read via WHO, is that this virus has two or more strains, one more deadly than another. So its quite possible that one or more passengers from China traveled to Italy with that more deadly type in them. Of course next logical question would be - is it only in Italy or we have those in other countries and perhaps incubation period is longer? That's probably a billion dollar question...
  - umanwizard 7y ago
    Nothing is special about Italy; they were just unlucky enough that the spread started there earlier than elsewhere. According to current trends, France and Spain will be where Italy is now in about week.
    - hcknwscommenter 7y ago
      Exactly, joering is entirely wrong in his bizarre analysis. Outbreaks have a stochastic quality to them. If a certain individual doesn't hit a certain country first, you are likely to see false evidence that that country hit later has some sort of inborn advantage in fighting the virus. This is nonsense until proven otherwise. Italy has a huge trade with China in textiles, leathergoods, and machine tools. There is a significantly more cross-border travel between the two countries than say France. It is likely only a matter of a week or two before France and Germany and Spain and then the UK experience similar numbers as Italy. That is, unless those later developing countries prepare by implementing social distancing and robust testing early. It looks like they are, so hopefully the growth rate will be a lot slower and health care systems will not be overwhelmed. In the U.S., we are a bit behind and it may go quite badly or our isolation and lower density may provide the needed slowing to implement effective systems. We shall see.
chrismcb 7y ago
I'd the virus is that widespread then there really isn't that much to fear. Consider we know most of the days caused by the virus. If the virus is much more widespread than we think, the number of deaths is so the same.
- anaphor 7y ago
  It can take up to 2 weeks for people to start showing symptoms. Also it can affect different people in very different ways.
- leggomylibro 7y ago
  Yes, for most people it isn't much to fear. Even children seem to fare well. But since it is very contagious and dangerous to the elderly, it's still a good idea to distance yourself from at-risk groups. The panicked overreaction probably won't see the backlash that it deserves, because there is a kernel of truth that social distancing can help to protect a small number of the most vulnerable people. Also, it's easy to point fingers in hindsight. A lot of the decision-making up to this point has been based on extrapolations from very incomplete information.
a3n 7y ago
> Just wait until they actually start testing people in earnest; the infected numbers will skyrocket in a very short period of time The President, while visiting the CDC, said that he would prefer not to let the Oakland cruise ship passengers disembark, because it would bring the numbers up. He'd rather keep the numbers down. Based on that, I doubt that there will be testing in earnest, so that "the numbers" don't skyrocket.
- hatsunearu 7y ago
  literally the exact same bullshit happened in japan. LITERALLY the exact same.
- Rapzid 7y ago
  If I wanted to quell panic I would institute random testing to drive the numbers UP. That would lower the perceived fatality rate and assuage fears.
Rapzid 7y ago
I think that's been the case for a long while. It's super contagious and produces no to mild symptoms in up to 80% of the most active age-segment of the population? You are contagious even when you don't have symptoms, even if you are going to eventually get them? One day the west coast epicenter is a nursing home in Seattle but the next day the head of the NY and NJ port authority tests positive? Reported case =/= actual cases and pretty much everything I've read/heard from doctors and virologists says the numbers of reported cases attributed to the actual CFR has been bunk the whole time. I would not be surprised if hundreds of thousands of people in the US have it right now.

usaar333 7y ago

Are people not aware at this point that the US will look like Italy/South Korea in a few weeks time? Hence, the hoarding of goods that has already begun..

slg 7y ago
Last reports I saw had us 11 days behind Italy based on known cases. We are probably even closer with unknown cases. I think tomorrow is the day to ensure you have a couple weeks of food and incidental supplies in your home if you haven't done so already. I don't think there is any hope of us slowing things down as successfully as they have in South Korea with their widespread testing.
- nostromo 7y ago
  This disease is fatal for people that are very old or otherwise ill. In Italy the average age of fatal infection is 81, which is older than the life expectancy for an Italian man. For 80% of people infected it's a mild cold or flu, not requiring hospitalization. I realize HN is full of Zero Hedge gold bugs, but this doesn't strike me as the apocalypse.
  - refurb 7y ago
    You’re getting downvoted, but none of your facts are inaccurate.
  - dx034 7y ago
    That's absolutely true, but the problem with this virus is not mortality but hospitalization. I read numbers yesterday that in Bergamo, up to 30% of ICU patients are under 60. Those are very likely to survive but need ICU treatment for up to 2 weeks. Most European countries have already accepted that most will get infected at some point (see Merkel's statement yesterday). It's all about flattening the curve to make sure hospitals have capacity. If we manage that, mortality could stay at reasonable levels. But we have no idea how high mortality rates could go if people with severe symptoms would need to stay at home.
    - yread 7y ago
      median age of hospitalization in Italy is 65 https://twitter.com/Dr_FarrisD/status/1237499092835676162 https://twitter.com/Dr_FarrisD/status/1237499092835676162
      - dx034 7y ago
        And median age of death >80. Which exactly proves the point, younger people (as in not seniors) also need hospital treatment but recover much more likely.
        yread 7y ago
        I wasn't arguing against your point. I think that the median is a better data point for your argument
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- leggomylibro 7y ago
  See, there's the mass panic I was talking about. We're not expecting an asteroid or a tsunami, people can still buy groceries in South Korea / Italy / Wuhan / etc... Sure you should stock up on essential medicines that you might need if you have to stay in for awhile, but I wish people would knock off the chicken little attitudes. It doesn't help, and it makes people stop listening to reasonable precautions when the sky consistently fails to fall. Thank you for the example; please don't go spouting this stuff to your friends and family. Just tell them to wash their hands and keep their distance from others instead of advocating full-scale panic.
  - dcolkitt 7y ago
    The point of stocking up on food is to avoid the need to go to the grocery store during the highly infectious phase of the pandemic. The best way to minimize the chance is to not leave the house. The best way to avoid leaving the house is to have enough supplies in for a few weeks.
    - Der_Einzige 7y ago
      I'm surprised that the comment like this even had to be posted. That's exactly why you do it
  - joering2 7y ago
    I don't think his issue is with lack of food in stores. I think his issue is that you would definitely not want to go to do your daily grocery in a city with such large outbreak as Wuhan. Better stock up and when the high infection ratio hits in your town, (if ever (?) then at least you don't have to expose yourself by going outside.
  - slg 7y ago
    Just because you can leave your home doesn't mean you should. I don't say this just for personal precaution. I saw this so people can act selflessly and self-quarantine at the first sign of problems. Most of the people reading this are probably healthy people in their 20s-50s. The virus doesn't pose too much of a threat to us. But these people can also be prime carriers of the disease and increase its spread. If you or someone in your house gets sick, you really shouldn't be going out in public to buy groceries even if it is technically still possible to do it. And for the record here is a 12 day old article that says Italy has had 650 cases and 17 deaths[1]. The CDC website currently has us at 647 cases and 25 deaths [2] and plenty of other places are reporting higher numbers[3]. I don't think I am raising a false alarm here. [1] - https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/27/809984502/coronavirus-update-japan-is-closing-all-its-schools-for-a-month https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/27/8099845... [2] - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html [3] - https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-live-u-s-europe-brace-infection-spread-italy-n1153801 https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronav...
- briandear 7y ago
  Those in the Bay Area should already have that: it’s called earthquake preparedness. People really need to calm down. This isn’t Ebola but people are acting like it is.
  - yibg 7y ago
    Ebola would be easier to manage. Yes it’s much more deadly if you get it but it’s also a hell of a lot harder to get.
realusername 7y ago
It's safe to say that the US will likely look worse than Italy or South Korea since additionally the US also has: - Inconvenient labour laws regarding sickness, people are and will be afraid to take sick leave - A lack of public healthcare, the US system does not seem designed for a collective approach. - A higher rate of diabetes compared to the rest of the developed world which seems to be affecting quite a lot the impact of the virus.
- DEADBEEFC0FFEE 7y ago
  Also a stronger aversion to control orders. Can you even imagine telling someone they cannot buy as many X as they want? Or locking down a city? I find it fascinating that authoritarian regimes have an advantage in that they can rapidly implement lockdown. Freedom has a price.
  - realusername 7y ago
    I would not say that authoritarian regimes necessary have advantages, Taiwan and Japan seems to handle this crisis much better than Iran for example. Culture does play a big role into that indeed though, if you can manage to close off events & cities and having your citizens obey all the health precautions, it has a big impact on how it spread.
  - TACIXAT 7y ago
    My local Costco is already telling people they can only buy 2 waters, paper towels, and disinfecting wipes. No one is rioting.
    - dnautics 7y ago
      Maybe Costco is an authoritarian regime!
      - pintxo 7y ago
        As almost all business, it is.
joering2 7y ago
This is truly interesting because obviously virus does not prejudice. So what is so special about Italy than other countries like Germany or France or Spain doesn't not have same size of an outbreak? Initially I was thinking its the testing part. If you test nobody then nobody is sick. But that's not the case because with such high level of mortality, we would know that people are dying from COVID-19. So my take is - what I read via WHO, is that this virus has two or more strains, one more deadly than another. So its quite possible that one or more passengers from China traveled to Italy with that more deadly type in them. Of course next logical question would be - is it only in Italy or we have those in other countries and perhaps incubation period is longer? That's probably a billion dollar question...
- umanwizard 7y ago
  Nothing is special about Italy; they were just unlucky enough that the spread started there earlier than elsewhere. According to current trends, France and Spain will be where Italy is now in about week.
  - hcknwscommenter 7y ago
    Exactly, joering is entirely wrong in his bizarre analysis. Outbreaks have a stochastic quality to them. If a certain individual doesn't hit a certain country first, you are likely to see false evidence that that country hit later has some sort of inborn advantage in fighting the virus. This is nonsense until proven otherwise. Italy has a huge trade with China in textiles, leathergoods, and machine tools. There is a significantly more cross-border travel between the two countries than say France. It is likely only a matter of a week or two before France and Germany and Spain and then the UK experience similar numbers as Italy. That is, unless those later developing countries prepare by implementing social distancing and robust testing early. It looks like they are, so hopefully the growth rate will be a lot slower and health care systems will not be overwhelmed. In the U.S., we are a bit behind and it may go quite badly or our isolation and lower density may provide the needed slowing to implement effective systems. We shall see.

chrismcb 7y ago

I'd the virus is that widespread then there really isn't that much to fear. Consider we know most of the days caused by the virus. If the virus is much more widespread than we think, the number of deaths is so the same.

anaphor 7y ago
It can take up to 2 weeks for people to start showing symptoms. Also it can affect different people in very different ways.
leggomylibro 7y ago
Yes, for most people it isn't much to fear. Even children seem to fare well. But since it is very contagious and dangerous to the elderly, it's still a good idea to distance yourself from at-risk groups. The panicked overreaction probably won't see the backlash that it deserves, because there is a kernel of truth that social distancing can help to protect a small number of the most vulnerable people. Also, it's easy to point fingers in hindsight. A lot of the decision-making up to this point has been based on extrapolations from very incomplete information.

a3n 7y ago

> Just wait until they actually start testing people in earnest; the infected numbers will skyrocket in a very short period of time The President, while visiting the CDC, said that he would prefer not to let the Oakland cruise ship passengers disembark, because it would bring the numbers up. He'd rather keep the numbers down. Based on that, I doubt that there will be testing in earnest, so that "the numbers" don't skyrocket.

hatsunearu 7y ago
literally the exact same bullshit happened in japan. LITERALLY the exact same.
Rapzid 7y ago
If I wanted to quell panic I would institute random testing to drive the numbers UP. That would lower the perceived fatality rate and assuage fears.

Rapzid 7y ago

I think that's been the case for a long while. It's super contagious and produces no to mild symptoms in up to 80% of the most active age-segment of the population? You are contagious even when you don't have symptoms, even if you are going to eventually get them? One day the west coast epicenter is a nursing home in Seattle but the next day the head of the NY and NJ port authority tests positive? Reported case =/= actual cases and pretty much everything I've read/heard from doctors and virologists says the numbers of reported cases attributed to the actual CFR has been bunk the whole time. I would not be surprised if hundreds of thousands of people in the US have it right now.