8 ms·

Angela Merkel estimates 60% to 70% of the German pop. will contract the virus

83 points by molmalo 7y ago

gentleman11 7y ago
Ireland quoted 50-60% in a CBC article I read earlier today: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-coronavirus-quarantine-europe-1.5492967 https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-coronavirus-quaran...
molmalo 7y ago
Also, it seems that Germany and France are currently 7 or 8 days behind Italy, when plotting the diagnosed cases... https://mobile.twitter.com/henrikenderlein/status/1236748772455170049 https://mobile.twitter.com/henrikenderlein/status/1236748772... (Several plots in the thread)
jdkee 7y ago
This is the end. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VScSEXRwUqQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VScSEXRwUqQ
- dang 7y ago
  Maybe so, but please don't post unsubstantive comments to Hacker News.
charlieflowers 7y ago
Honest question -- I am trying to see how she and others arrive at these numbers. (Believe me, I'm not a burying my head in the sand ... quite the opposite. I'm very concerned.) Italy has 8,500 who are still sick. And yet, reports are that their medical system (which is good) is completely overwhelmed, to the point where treatable elderly are not even diagnosed [1]. Yet the numbers indicate they have about 3 hospital beds per 1000, or 186,000 beds, which are normally 80% full. So that means, 37,000 beds available. So, 8,500 cases (not all of whom are in the hospital) should not overwhelm 37,000 beds, right? Perhaps the number of _doctors and nurses_ are overwhelmed? Anybody know where to get reliable stats on that? Anybody see what I'm missing? Or do you think I've gotten incorrect info? I'm trying to arrive at a rational prediction of how bad things could be in the US, and how soon. [1] https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538 https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/123714289107769753...
- kpozin 7y ago
  I would guess that Italy's severe Covid-19 cases and available hospital beds have very different geographic distributions.
- oconnore 7y ago
  The numbers are based on confirmed cases. The task of confirming cases is not a trivial matter -- you need test kits, and someone to administer them, and the virus doesn't wait around for you to test for it.
- semi-extrinsic 7y ago
  Yeah, it's not the total number of hospital beds, it's the number of intensive care hosptal beds with associated equipment like ventilators and intubation equipment, chest x-ray capacity, and the number of doctors and nurses familiar with that type of equipment. In my country we have ~12 000 hospital beds total, but only ~400 intensive care beds. Reportedly our capacity for immediately stretching that number is that we can muster ~1 200 intensive care beds. If the need goes beyond that (and everyone is seriously hoping it will not) then we will be overwhelmed like Italy.
  - mtsr 7y ago
    This is the right answer. And it’s also why mortality could potentially shoot up to the +/- 7% of patients that need ICU care, if that capacity is exceeded.
  - zone411 7y ago
    In the U.S., the number of per-state ICU beds varies quite a bit. When we count the number of older state residents weighted by their mortality rate, some have twice as many beds available for them on per capita basis: https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status/1237545167659253763 https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status/1237545167659253763
  - hcknwscommenter 7y ago
    Not only that, but these intensive care beds need to be isolated. Ever been to an ICU? Isolation is not a thing. We can't just go in and tape a bunch of plastic drapes to the walls/ceilings/floors and make these ICU beds isolated. 400 ICU beds is to a first approximation zero isolated ICU beds.
ofrzeta 7y ago
"Merkel went on to tell lawmakers that more events and large gatherings could be canceled, depending on the severity of the outbreak. Postponing parliamentary proceedings is also a possibility, Merkel said." wtf. This is what they are planning to do about it?
- ofrzeta 7y ago
  What's to downvote? I mean they are essentially doing nothing. Allegedly this is also due to the federal system where constituent states get to decide such policies. The federal health minister can only "recommend" stuff but this is not the way to contain the spread of a virus. Neighbour states such as Austria are closing universities while in Germany they are still playing football matches in arenas with 50.000 people (yesterday).
  - tastroder 7y ago
    > yesterday I hate the "it's a dynamic situation" wording but yes, days matter here. Also yesterday, NRW, one of the most affected states put out the official recommendation to cancel major events with more than 1000 persons. Austria closed some universities at this point but many are scheduled to close next Monday.
Barrin92 7y ago
Seems to be a prediction at the dramatic end in particular if the quick lockdowns and quarantines are kept up. As China has shown it's very possible to bring the numbers down. Either way though even if it turns out to be a too high a prediction at least she speaks plainly and I guess electing a physicist who understands how these dynamics can work was a good idea.
- molmalo 7y ago
  >Seems to be a prediction at the dramatic end in particular if the quick lockdowns and quarantines are kept up. I've read several epidemiologists that said stuff among the lines that, while the objective is not to generate panic, leaders should not minimize the scale of this outbreak, and the consequences of downplaying it are severe. When politicians say stuff like "this is just another flu", then lots of people continue their lives as usual, and thus, it gets almost impossible to slow down the propagation. Maybe it's OK to throw those numbers, as a wake up call for society. If the government ordered a full lock-down, many people that still think "it's just a flu" would get mad... but if she first announces this, then maybe the rest of society would be more open to accept the consequences of a lock-down. In the end, it's politics.
  - m0zg 7y ago
    How long do you propose we maintain this "lockdown"?
    - molmalo 7y ago
      I would look into China's experience for guidance. I know the costs would be monumental, so it's not an easy decision, and would not like to be in her shoes right now. But if the alternative is what Merkel suggests...
      - m0zg 7y ago
        But this virus won't go away until a significant fraction of the population gets infected and heals. It'll come back in the fall when it's colder and hit again. I'm afraid the only principled solution here is to develop vaccines and working antivirals in the next few months, which by "normal" standards is completely unprecedented.
strangeloops85 7y ago
This is completely unwarranted fatalism. Taiwan and Singapore bent the curve, and Korea is doing it now as well. Learn from them and implement! Really don't understand this logic at all - containment is possible.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- treve 7y ago
  One way to contain is to take the potential risk serious. If that fails, it's still better to slow down the spread. Preparing a country for this potential outcome is a good thing. If it didn't end up at 60-70%, it will be in part because of a very strong response.
- dusklight 7y ago
  If you said this last week about Singapore I would agree with you. Have you looked at their graph in the last few days?
  - hatenberg 7y ago
    It's still mostly contained (most cases are connected to existing clusters) but the government is foreshadowing that containment is becoming a major problem without being able to rely on geographic travel screening. Many imported cases (UK, Italy, Thailand) in the last few days. The curve is still very much bent when we look at how early this started in the country and it will continue to be flatter than in any place not putting distancing and testing in place on time
- kasperni 7y ago
  Bent what curve? "South Korea on Wednesday reported 242 additional coronavirus cases, almost double the number of new cases reported on Tuesday, as the emergence of a new outbreak in Seoul worries officials." from [1] [1] https://www.ft.com/content/986b533f-1d3e-3920-ae80-da8dcd8af7b7 https://www.ft.com/content/986b533f-1d3e-3920-ae80-da8dcd8af...
JanSt 7y ago
The estimate is from Prof. Drosten* of the Charité in Berlin, a highly regarded virologe. His lab developed the first diagnostic corona test. Before that they also developed the tests for SARS, Zika and MERS. He also constantly warned to flatten the curve, spreading infection time as long as possible - preferably over multiple years... For those speaking german - there is a daily podcast update from Prof. Drosten https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkKON9te6p3OpxqDskVsxXOmhfW0uPi1H https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkKON9te6p3OpxqDskVsx... *Head of the Institute for Virology at the Charité
- molmalo 7y ago
  > preferably over multiple years... Reminds me of a tweet I read today: https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/1237424070863523841 https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/123742407086352384... Even if this outbreak is contained, either because of social policies or seasonal change, governments should prepare for a new wave next year (and the southern hemisphere should be preparing for a hit in a few weeks/months).
  - DarthGhandi 7y ago
    Exactly what happened with SARS which was contained by the third year and now no longer occurs
- Der_Einzige 7y ago
  Well at least the leader of the remaining Free world is willing to tell the truth to her people...
  - dang 7y ago
    Would you please stop posting political flamebait and otherwise breaking the site guidelines? You've been doing it repeatedly, and we ban accounts that do that. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    - 7y ago
hannob 7y ago
Christian Drosten, who's likely the origin of these numbers, has explained them a few days ago in a podcast. The math is incredibly simple. The idea is that right now you have an estimated transmission rate of 3 people infected by one person. (Of course this number has high uncertainties and can be changed by better isolating patients, but let's assume it's roughly correct.) If you want to stop the transmission this needs to go below one. The major thing that can stop transmission is immunity from patients that already had the disease (assuming, which is probably true, that most patients won't get infected twice, even though it may happen in rare cases). So getting from 3 to 1 means 2/3 of the population need to be immune.
- gentleman11 7y ago
  The Spanish flu “only” infected about 1/4 or 1/3 of people. Why the higher number for Covid?
  - oever 7y ago
    Probably because people travel much more now.
    - sauwan 7y ago
      The spanish flu happened during the first world war when many soldiers were traveling significantly.
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
adrr 7y ago
Would it make sense to do controlled infections of younger medical staff to build immunity against the disease so they can do their jobs when masks and gloves become scarce? Ethics aside just from a pure optimal outcome perspective. Italy is already reporting a shortage of masks.
- hcknwscommenter 7y ago
  interesting idea. Will never happen.
- teniutza 7y ago
  >> when masks and gloves become scarce Already there... At least in Germany.
- belltaco 7y ago
  There is nothing called a controlled infection outside of a vaccine. As we saw in Wuhan, several youngish doctors and medical staff died as well. When some of the "controlled infections" turn severe, now you have to take care of them as well(probably with a higher priority since they volunteered for the good of the community), which adds to the burden.
  - beatgammit 7y ago
    Well, there is. You infect them and keep them isolated until they recover. If you do that before the problem becomes rampant, you will have more healthy doctors available. However, if the virus mutates significantly, they may just get sick again. It's possible, but probably not ethical.
  - adrr 7y ago
    If the estimate is 60% to 70% of the county will get the disease you could assume every frontline health care person will get infected especially due to the proximity to the disease. You're just controlling when they get infected.

83 points by molmalo 7y ago

Ireland quoted 50-60% in a CBC article I read earlier today: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-coronavirus-quarantine-europe-1.5492967 https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-coronavirus-quaran...

molmalo 7y ago

Also, it seems that Germany and France are currently 7 or 8 days behind Italy, when plotting the diagnosed cases... https://mobile.twitter.com/henrikenderlein/status/1236748772455170049 https://mobile.twitter.com/henrikenderlein/status/1236748772... (Several plots in the thread)

jdkee 7y ago

This is the end. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VScSEXRwUqQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VScSEXRwUqQ

dang 7y ago
Maybe so, but please don't post unsubstantive comments to Hacker News.

charlieflowers 7y ago

Honest question -- I am trying to see how she and others arrive at these numbers. (Believe me, I'm not a burying my head in the sand ... quite the opposite. I'm very concerned.) Italy has 8,500 who are still sick. And yet, reports are that their medical system (which is good) is completely overwhelmed, to the point where treatable elderly are not even diagnosed [1]. Yet the numbers indicate they have about 3 hospital beds per 1000, or 186,000 beds, which are normally 80% full. So that means, 37,000 beds available. So, 8,500 cases (not all of whom are in the hospital) should not overwhelm 37,000 beds, right? Perhaps the number of _doctors and nurses_ are overwhelmed? Anybody know where to get reliable stats on that? Anybody see what I'm missing? Or do you think I've gotten incorrect info? I'm trying to arrive at a rational prediction of how bad things could be in the US, and how soon. [1] https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538 https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/123714289107769753...

kpozin 7y ago
I would guess that Italy's severe Covid-19 cases and available hospital beds have very different geographic distributions.
oconnore 7y ago
The numbers are based on confirmed cases. The task of confirming cases is not a trivial matter -- you need test kits, and someone to administer them, and the virus doesn't wait around for you to test for it.
semi-extrinsic 7y ago
Yeah, it's not the total number of hospital beds, it's the number of intensive care hosptal beds with associated equipment like ventilators and intubation equipment, chest x-ray capacity, and the number of doctors and nurses familiar with that type of equipment. In my country we have ~12 000 hospital beds total, but only ~400 intensive care beds. Reportedly our capacity for immediately stretching that number is that we can muster ~1 200 intensive care beds. If the need goes beyond that (and everyone is seriously hoping it will not) then we will be overwhelmed like Italy.
- mtsr 7y ago
  This is the right answer. And it’s also why mortality could potentially shoot up to the +/- 7% of patients that need ICU care, if that capacity is exceeded.
- zone411 7y ago
  In the U.S., the number of per-state ICU beds varies quite a bit. When we count the number of older state residents weighted by their mortality rate, some have twice as many beds available for them on per capita basis: https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status/1237545167659253763 https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status/1237545167659253763
- hcknwscommenter 7y ago
  Not only that, but these intensive care beds need to be isolated. Ever been to an ICU? Isolation is not a thing. We can't just go in and tape a bunch of plastic drapes to the walls/ceilings/floors and make these ICU beds isolated. 400 ICU beds is to a first approximation zero isolated ICU beds.

ofrzeta 7y ago

"Merkel went on to tell lawmakers that more events and large gatherings could be canceled, depending on the severity of the outbreak. Postponing parliamentary proceedings is also a possibility, Merkel said." wtf. This is what they are planning to do about it?

ofrzeta 7y ago
What's to downvote? I mean they are essentially doing nothing. Allegedly this is also due to the federal system where constituent states get to decide such policies. The federal health minister can only "recommend" stuff but this is not the way to contain the spread of a virus. Neighbour states such as Austria are closing universities while in Germany they are still playing football matches in arenas with 50.000 people (yesterday).
- tastroder 7y ago
  > yesterday I hate the "it's a dynamic situation" wording but yes, days matter here. Also yesterday, NRW, one of the most affected states put out the official recommendation to cancel major events with more than 1000 persons. Austria closed some universities at this point but many are scheduled to close next Monday.

Barrin92 7y ago

Seems to be a prediction at the dramatic end in particular if the quick lockdowns and quarantines are kept up. As China has shown it's very possible to bring the numbers down. Either way though even if it turns out to be a too high a prediction at least she speaks plainly and I guess electing a physicist who understands how these dynamics can work was a good idea.

molmalo 7y ago
>Seems to be a prediction at the dramatic end in particular if the quick lockdowns and quarantines are kept up. I've read several epidemiologists that said stuff among the lines that, while the objective is not to generate panic, leaders should not minimize the scale of this outbreak, and the consequences of downplaying it are severe. When politicians say stuff like "this is just another flu", then lots of people continue their lives as usual, and thus, it gets almost impossible to slow down the propagation. Maybe it's OK to throw those numbers, as a wake up call for society. If the government ordered a full lock-down, many people that still think "it's just a flu" would get mad... but if she first announces this, then maybe the rest of society would be more open to accept the consequences of a lock-down. In the end, it's politics.
- m0zg 7y ago
  How long do you propose we maintain this "lockdown"?
  - molmalo 7y ago
    I would look into China's experience for guidance. I know the costs would be monumental, so it's not an easy decision, and would not like to be in her shoes right now. But if the alternative is what Merkel suggests...
    - m0zg 7y ago
      But this virus won't go away until a significant fraction of the population gets infected and heals. It'll come back in the fall when it's colder and hit again. I'm afraid the only principled solution here is to develop vaccines and working antivirals in the next few months, which by "normal" standards is completely unprecedented.

strangeloops85 7y ago

This is completely unwarranted fatalism. Taiwan and Singapore bent the curve, and Korea is doing it now as well. Learn from them and implement! Really don't understand this logic at all - containment is possible.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
treve 7y ago
One way to contain is to take the potential risk serious. If that fails, it's still better to slow down the spread. Preparing a country for this potential outcome is a good thing. If it didn't end up at 60-70%, it will be in part because of a very strong response.
dusklight 7y ago
If you said this last week about Singapore I would agree with you. Have you looked at their graph in the last few days?
- hatenberg 7y ago
  It's still mostly contained (most cases are connected to existing clusters) but the government is foreshadowing that containment is becoming a major problem without being able to rely on geographic travel screening. Many imported cases (UK, Italy, Thailand) in the last few days. The curve is still very much bent when we look at how early this started in the country and it will continue to be flatter than in any place not putting distancing and testing in place on time
kasperni 7y ago
Bent what curve? "South Korea on Wednesday reported 242 additional coronavirus cases, almost double the number of new cases reported on Tuesday, as the emergence of a new outbreak in Seoul worries officials." from [1] [1] https://www.ft.com/content/986b533f-1d3e-3920-ae80-da8dcd8af7b7 https://www.ft.com/content/986b533f-1d3e-3920-ae80-da8dcd8af...

JanSt 7y ago

The estimate is from Prof. Drosten* of the Charité in Berlin, a highly regarded virologe. His lab developed the first diagnostic corona test. Before that they also developed the tests for SARS, Zika and MERS. He also constantly warned to flatten the curve, spreading infection time as long as possible - preferably over multiple years... For those speaking german - there is a daily podcast update from Prof. Drosten https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkKON9te6p3OpxqDskVsxXOmhfW0uPi1H https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkKON9te6p3OpxqDskVsx... *Head of the Institute for Virology at the Charité

molmalo 7y ago
> preferably over multiple years... Reminds me of a tweet I read today: https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/1237424070863523841 https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/123742407086352384... Even if this outbreak is contained, either because of social policies or seasonal change, governments should prepare for a new wave next year (and the southern hemisphere should be preparing for a hit in a few weeks/months).
- DarthGhandi 7y ago
  Exactly what happened with SARS which was contained by the third year and now no longer occurs
Der_Einzige 7y ago
Well at least the leader of the remaining Free world is willing to tell the truth to her people...
- dang 7y ago
  Would you please stop posting political flamebait and otherwise breaking the site guidelines? You've been doing it repeatedly, and we ban accounts that do that. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - 7y ago

hannob 7y ago

Christian Drosten, who's likely the origin of these numbers, has explained them a few days ago in a podcast. The math is incredibly simple. The idea is that right now you have an estimated transmission rate of 3 people infected by one person. (Of course this number has high uncertainties and can be changed by better isolating patients, but let's assume it's roughly correct.) If you want to stop the transmission this needs to go below one. The major thing that can stop transmission is immunity from patients that already had the disease (assuming, which is probably true, that most patients won't get infected twice, even though it may happen in rare cases). So getting from 3 to 1 means 2/3 of the population need to be immune.

gentleman11 7y ago
The Spanish flu “only” infected about 1/4 or 1/3 of people. Why the higher number for Covid?
- oever 7y ago
  Probably because people travel much more now.
  - sauwan 7y ago
    The spanish flu happened during the first world war when many soldiers were traveling significantly.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]

adrr 7y ago

Would it make sense to do controlled infections of younger medical staff to build immunity against the disease so they can do their jobs when masks and gloves become scarce? Ethics aside just from a pure optimal outcome perspective. Italy is already reporting a shortage of masks.

hcknwscommenter 7y ago
interesting idea. Will never happen.
teniutza 7y ago
>> when masks and gloves become scarce Already there... At least in Germany.
belltaco 7y ago
There is nothing called a controlled infection outside of a vaccine. As we saw in Wuhan, several youngish doctors and medical staff died as well. When some of the "controlled infections" turn severe, now you have to take care of them as well(probably with a higher priority since they volunteered for the good of the community), which adds to the burden.
- beatgammit 7y ago
  Well, there is. You infect them and keep them isolated until they recover. If you do that before the problem becomes rampant, you will have more healthy doctors available. However, if the virus mutates significantly, they may just get sick again. It's possible, but probably not ethical.
- adrr 7y ago
  If the estimate is 60% to 70% of the county will get the disease you could assume every frontline health care person will get infected especially due to the proximity to the disease. You're just controlling when they get infected.