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I think Germany is probably a lost cause and the majority of their population will get the virus. Higher population density, open borders / lack of geographic i

by m0zg 7y ago

I think Germany is probably a lost cause and the majority of their population will get the virus. Higher population density, open borders / lack of geographic isolation, aging population - none of those things help them any. Sadly, I think the majority of (much larger) US population will get the virus, too. H1N1, for instance, affected 57 million people in the US and caused almost 12K deaths. And COVID19 is much deadlier than H1N1, so we're probably looking at a low six figure death toll at least, when all is said and done, no matter what we do. I'd be surprised if we manage to escape this outcome.

dx034 7y ago
> Higher population density, open borders / lack of geographic isolation, aging population That describes most EU countries. Germany is neither much older than the others nor more interconnected. Population density is high but that's the case for many countries in Western Europe.
- m0zg 7y ago
  Um, yes? The rest of Europe will be hit pretty hard as well. Likely harder than the US. Cursory googling shows that Germany has 21.46% of people 65 and older. France has ~1.5% fewer. Italy has about 1.34% more. The US, however, only has 16.03% of such people or 5.43% fewer than Germany. I'd say the US is looking at lower infection rate (because people are more spread out) and fewer deaths, too (because fewer people are in the 65+ group which has been dying primarily).
  - dx034 7y ago
    I'm not sure about the lower infection rate, even rural communities are quite interconnected. But obviously death rates are likely proportional to the number of older people. So the US should fare better. However, hospital admissions in Italy are now at a median age of 65, so a younger population doesn't help hospitals, it just lowers mortality.