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Explained in https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ We cancel large meetings now to reduce the peak and delay it, so the health care

by jrd259 7y ago

Explained in https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ We cancel large meetings now to reduce the peak and delay it, so the health care system isn't totally overloaded. Eventually, a vaccine.

ken 7y ago
From what I've heard from health officials, it'll be at least 6 months before trials can begin on any vaccine, and 12-24 months before it might be available. Is the plan to ask everyone to stay home for the next two years? As that page says, "Relative to Other Countries, US Labor and Healthcare Policies are a Perfect Storm for Pandemics". Small businesses in Seattle are already closing shop for good, in anticipation of the next month. I'm an hourly worker who depends on people going out, and I have zero upcoming work. Social Distancing is an excellent short-term plan. It's not an end game.
Animats 7y ago
The total number of people getting sick is not reduced by that. The drastic measures take in China seem to be working.[1] China had 507 million people in full or partial lockdown at peak. "In the Hubei city of Huanggang, people caught in public without a mask or wandering outside without authorization have to pay a 1,000 yuan ($140) fine, and a fee of 40 yuan a day for two weeks of “forced study” classes, which are conducted in a sports stadium with students seated far apart, Huanggang residents said in interviews." Tracking of travel from phone info. Tracking devices on people's doors. Followup by cops and local Communist Party committees to keep people in line. New infections in China are dropping rapidly.[2] Restrictions are being slowly lifted and life is returning to normal. Yesterday, the only new infections found outside Wuhan came from people entering China. There's a good chance China will be mostly back to normal in a month, but with lots of testing to keep infections from getting going again. [1] http://archive.is/qWmFw http://archive.is/qWmFw [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cases/mainland-china-reports-44-new-virus-cases-as-spread-continues-to-slow-at-epicenter-idUSKBN20V00X?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-...
- sliken 7y ago
  "The total number of people getting sick is not reduced by that." Correct, or at least possibly so. But by flattening the curve you can greatly increase then number of people that survive. Entering respiratory distress because of serious case of corona virus in a overburdened hospital is likely to be fatal. Much less so if there's a bed in the pneumonia ward for you. Also early treatments are showing promise, in particular zinc + the malaria drug.
  - stareatgoats 7y ago
    Agree the aim must be to flatten the curve. As for treatments showing promise, please provide source.

by jrd259 7y ago

ken 7y ago

From what I've heard from health officials, it'll be at least 6 months before trials can begin on any vaccine, and 12-24 months before it might be available. Is the plan to ask everyone to stay home for the next two years? As that page says, "Relative to Other Countries, US Labor and Healthcare Policies are a Perfect Storm for Pandemics". Small businesses in Seattle are already closing shop for good, in anticipation of the next month. I'm an hourly worker who depends on people going out, and I have zero upcoming work. Social Distancing is an excellent short-term plan. It's not an end game.

Animats 7y ago

The total number of people getting sick is not reduced by that. The drastic measures take in China seem to be working.[1] China had 507 million people in full or partial lockdown at peak. "In the Hubei city of Huanggang, people caught in public without a mask or wandering outside without authorization have to pay a 1,000 yuan ($140) fine, and a fee of 40 yuan a day for two weeks of “forced study” classes, which are conducted in a sports stadium with students seated far apart, Huanggang residents said in interviews." Tracking of travel from phone info. Tracking devices on people's doors. Followup by cops and local Communist Party committees to keep people in line. New infections in China are dropping rapidly.[2] Restrictions are being slowly lifted and life is returning to normal. Yesterday, the only new infections found outside Wuhan came from people entering China. There's a good chance China will be mostly back to normal in a month, but with lots of testing to keep infections from getting going again. [1] http://archive.is/qWmFw http://archive.is/qWmFw [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cases/mainland-china-reports-44-new-virus-cases-as-spread-continues-to-slow-at-epicenter-idUSKBN20V00X?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-...

sliken 7y ago
"The total number of people getting sick is not reduced by that." Correct, or at least possibly so. But by flattening the curve you can greatly increase then number of people that survive. Entering respiratory distress because of serious case of corona virus in a overburdened hospital is likely to be fatal. Much less so if there's a bed in the pneumonia ward for you. Also early treatments are showing promise, in particular zinc + the malaria drug.
- stareatgoats 7y ago
  Agree the aim must be to flatten the curve. As for treatments showing promise, please provide source.