4 ms·

I'd say I'm in the camp of cancelling everything right now, instead of waiting till the last minute. Seems doing so now would also have less of a social impact.

I'd say I'm in the camp of cancelling everything right now, instead of waiting till the last minute. Seems doing so now would also have less of a social impact. That said, what I've yet to hear about is what the end game looks like? Do you cancel everything for a month or two, and then go back to normal? Wouldn't the virus just take hold again? So do we go on a routine monthly quarantine every quarter? Do we cancel everything until we find a vaccine? Do we quarantine the "at risk" and actually have everyone else interact even more so that all the healthy people get it quickly and recover to develop immunity? If anyone knows, I'd be curious, what kind of end game are we looking at here?

jrd259 7y ago
Explained in https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ We cancel large meetings now to reduce the peak and delay it, so the health care system isn't totally overloaded. Eventually, a vaccine.
- ken 7y ago
  From what I've heard from health officials, it'll be at least 6 months before trials can begin on any vaccine, and 12-24 months before it might be available. Is the plan to ask everyone to stay home for the next two years? As that page says, "Relative to Other Countries, US Labor and Healthcare Policies are a Perfect Storm for Pandemics". Small businesses in Seattle are already closing shop for good, in anticipation of the next month. I'm an hourly worker who depends on people going out, and I have zero upcoming work. Social Distancing is an excellent short-term plan. It's not an end game.
- Animats 7y ago
  The total number of people getting sick is not reduced by that. The drastic measures take in China seem to be working.[1] China had 507 million people in full or partial lockdown at peak. "In the Hubei city of Huanggang, people caught in public without a mask or wandering outside without authorization have to pay a 1,000 yuan ($140) fine, and a fee of 40 yuan a day for two weeks of “forced study” classes, which are conducted in a sports stadium with students seated far apart, Huanggang residents said in interviews." Tracking of travel from phone info. Tracking devices on people's doors. Followup by cops and local Communist Party committees to keep people in line. New infections in China are dropping rapidly.[2] Restrictions are being slowly lifted and life is returning to normal. Yesterday, the only new infections found outside Wuhan came from people entering China. There's a good chance China will be mostly back to normal in a month, but with lots of testing to keep infections from getting going again. [1] http://archive.is/qWmFw http://archive.is/qWmFw [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cases/mainland-china-reports-44-new-virus-cases-as-spread-continues-to-slow-at-epicenter-idUSKBN20V00X?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-...
  - sliken 7y ago
    "The total number of people getting sick is not reduced by that." Correct, or at least possibly so. But by flattening the curve you can greatly increase then number of people that survive. Entering respiratory distress because of serious case of corona virus in a overburdened hospital is likely to be fatal. Much less so if there's a bed in the pneumonia ward for you. Also early treatments are showing promise, in particular zinc + the malaria drug.
    - stareatgoats 7y ago
      Agree the aim must be to flatten the curve. As for treatments showing promise, please provide source.
parrellel 7y ago
Stretch out the initial infection spike until we've rebuilt the iron lung supply is one of the big things.
- CydeWeys 7y ago
  Well, ventilators anyway. Iron lungs are for a different kind of respiratory issue that isn't occurring with COVID-19.
  - parrellel 7y ago
    Yeah, you're right. Point being there's less than a thousand sufficient beds according to the last thing I've read and 4ish percent of patients may need one. Which was just a wham line for me.
  - souprock 7y ago
    A simple nasal cannula with oxygen ought to work for most cases. Assuming you need physical help though: Iron lungs are superior. They avoid throat injury caused by tubes, they allow semi-normal talking and eating (time it right), and they generally make people more comfortable. We got rid of iron lungs for cost reasons. They are physically huge and heavy. They slow down all patient care that doesn't involve the head. There is a new device that is even better than an iron lung, but it is extremely uncommon. It operates the same way, but it is in the form of a body-conforming shell (like a turtle) and it has a push-pull action. It even has a button to request coughing, which turns out to be important. I feel that we ought to somehow pressure hospitals to upgrade. It isn't right that people have to suffer with tubes jammed down their throats when far superior alternatives are available.
    - CydeWeys 7y ago
      > They slow down all patient care that doesn't involve the head. That's an understatement. The entire body is in a pressure vessel and is inaccessible. You can't even easily give medication or draw blood. I wouldn't say iron lungs are "superior"; they're no longer used for good reasons that don't just boil down to cost/bulkiness reasons. Also, modern ventilators aren't that cheap anyway.
senectus1 7y ago
4 week long world wide vacation. only no travelling and you dont get paid for it.
senthil_rajasek 7y ago
The end game is to develop a vaccine. In the meantime, stop the spreading by quarantine, social distancing, washing hands etc.,
- jshevek 7y ago
  I don't believe that we will be using the current extreme form of "social distancing" for as long as it takes to develop a vaccine. Vaccine could easily be a year and a half out. I think we will return to a more moderate social distancing, where appropriate, after tests have been deployed and we have a better sense of the actual rates of infection in different regions.
  - ken 7y ago
    The current "social distancing" can't continue indefinitely without massive changes. It's not sustainable. Beyond a few weeks, it'll put a lot of people out of work, and the system can't support long-term wide-spread unemployment.
    - jshevek 7y ago
      Yes. Testing is ramping up at the moment. I think we'll have a much better idea of actual infection rates and distribution before a few weeks.
bcrosby95 7y ago
I also wonder if giving people time to discover and sort out their health problems would save many people. I know more than one person that hasn't gotten a doctors checkup in years.
- ken 7y ago
  Neither have I. There'd be no point. "One large-scale review, published in 2012, found that annual physical exams do nothing to improve a person’s disease and mortality risks" [1], while costing us billions of dollars, and taking doctors' time away from patients who actually need it. [1]: https://time.com/5095920/annual-physical-exam/ https://time.com/5095920/annual-physical-exam/ If people have health issues that need treating, then absolutely go see a doctor when you can. If it's simply been a year and they're not in a high-risk population and have no reason to believe anything has changed, then don't bother.
  - jshaqaw 7y ago
    Friend I went in for an annual checkup despite being in apparent perfect health. Blood test results led to some other tests which led to the discovery of precancerous growths early enough to stop things. I’m in my mid 40s with a young family. Be careful with advice like this.
BurningFrog 7y ago
It's not really complicated. You cancel things until the virus is gone. Not by a time limit.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
jshevek 7y ago
If they make the test cheap enough, convenient enough, and in sufficient quantity, we can bring everything back online in a low risk manner long before we have a vaccine.
- genrus00 7y ago
  The test is already cheap enough. At least, in Europe.
- AstralStorm 7y ago
  The test has enough false positive rate to make it annoying to use in general population. It's being improved.
opwieurposiu 7y ago
The purpose of quarantine is not to save lives, the purpose is to expand the power of the state. This virus is a totalitarian dream come true. Agents of the state telling you who you can meet, where you can go, when you can leave the house. Expect the state to draw this one out as long as possible.
nazgulnarsil 7y ago
Time is critical. Vaccine research, time for hospital infrastructure to scale and establish procedure, research on novel mitigation methods (is there a particular wavelength of UV that is effective? Can we scale that to millions of handheld devices?), time for orgs working with vulnerable populations to change operations, time to train up additional staff, more spare capacity of areas less impacted to help out situations like Iran instead of worrying so much about their own, will summer give us a tailwind? etc etc. Essentially everyone who is already specialized in this area is getting slammed right now and alleviating their problems will be measured in lives saved.

jrd259 7y ago

Explained in https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ https://www.flattenthecurve.com/ We cancel large meetings now to reduce the peak and delay it, so the health care system isn't totally overloaded. Eventually, a vaccine.

ken 7y ago
From what I've heard from health officials, it'll be at least 6 months before trials can begin on any vaccine, and 12-24 months before it might be available. Is the plan to ask everyone to stay home for the next two years? As that page says, "Relative to Other Countries, US Labor and Healthcare Policies are a Perfect Storm for Pandemics". Small businesses in Seattle are already closing shop for good, in anticipation of the next month. I'm an hourly worker who depends on people going out, and I have zero upcoming work. Social Distancing is an excellent short-term plan. It's not an end game.
Animats 7y ago
The total number of people getting sick is not reduced by that. The drastic measures take in China seem to be working.[1] China had 507 million people in full or partial lockdown at peak. "In the Hubei city of Huanggang, people caught in public without a mask or wandering outside without authorization have to pay a 1,000 yuan ($140) fine, and a fee of 40 yuan a day for two weeks of “forced study” classes, which are conducted in a sports stadium with students seated far apart, Huanggang residents said in interviews." Tracking of travel from phone info. Tracking devices on people's doors. Followup by cops and local Communist Party committees to keep people in line. New infections in China are dropping rapidly.[2] Restrictions are being slowly lifted and life is returning to normal. Yesterday, the only new infections found outside Wuhan came from people entering China. There's a good chance China will be mostly back to normal in a month, but with lots of testing to keep infections from getting going again. [1] http://archive.is/qWmFw http://archive.is/qWmFw [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-cases/mainland-china-reports-44-new-virus-cases-as-spread-continues-to-slow-at-epicenter-idUSKBN20V00X?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-...
- sliken 7y ago
  "The total number of people getting sick is not reduced by that." Correct, or at least possibly so. But by flattening the curve you can greatly increase then number of people that survive. Entering respiratory distress because of serious case of corona virus in a overburdened hospital is likely to be fatal. Much less so if there's a bed in the pneumonia ward for you. Also early treatments are showing promise, in particular zinc + the malaria drug.
  - stareatgoats 7y ago
    Agree the aim must be to flatten the curve. As for treatments showing promise, please provide source.

parrellel 7y ago

Stretch out the initial infection spike until we've rebuilt the iron lung supply is one of the big things.

CydeWeys 7y ago
Well, ventilators anyway. Iron lungs are for a different kind of respiratory issue that isn't occurring with COVID-19.
- parrellel 7y ago
  Yeah, you're right. Point being there's less than a thousand sufficient beds according to the last thing I've read and 4ish percent of patients may need one. Which was just a wham line for me.
- souprock 7y ago
  A simple nasal cannula with oxygen ought to work for most cases. Assuming you need physical help though: Iron lungs are superior. They avoid throat injury caused by tubes, they allow semi-normal talking and eating (time it right), and they generally make people more comfortable. We got rid of iron lungs for cost reasons. They are physically huge and heavy. They slow down all patient care that doesn't involve the head. There is a new device that is even better than an iron lung, but it is extremely uncommon. It operates the same way, but it is in the form of a body-conforming shell (like a turtle) and it has a push-pull action. It even has a button to request coughing, which turns out to be important. I feel that we ought to somehow pressure hospitals to upgrade. It isn't right that people have to suffer with tubes jammed down their throats when far superior alternatives are available.
  - CydeWeys 7y ago
    > They slow down all patient care that doesn't involve the head. That's an understatement. The entire body is in a pressure vessel and is inaccessible. You can't even easily give medication or draw blood. I wouldn't say iron lungs are "superior"; they're no longer used for good reasons that don't just boil down to cost/bulkiness reasons. Also, modern ventilators aren't that cheap anyway.

senectus1 7y ago

4 week long world wide vacation. only no travelling and you dont get paid for it.

senthil_rajasek 7y ago

The end game is to develop a vaccine. In the meantime, stop the spreading by quarantine, social distancing, washing hands etc.,

jshevek 7y ago
I don't believe that we will be using the current extreme form of "social distancing" for as long as it takes to develop a vaccine. Vaccine could easily be a year and a half out. I think we will return to a more moderate social distancing, where appropriate, after tests have been deployed and we have a better sense of the actual rates of infection in different regions.
- ken 7y ago
  The current "social distancing" can't continue indefinitely without massive changes. It's not sustainable. Beyond a few weeks, it'll put a lot of people out of work, and the system can't support long-term wide-spread unemployment.
  - jshevek 7y ago
    Yes. Testing is ramping up at the moment. I think we'll have a much better idea of actual infection rates and distribution before a few weeks.

bcrosby95 7y ago

I also wonder if giving people time to discover and sort out their health problems would save many people. I know more than one person that hasn't gotten a doctors checkup in years.

ken 7y ago
Neither have I. There'd be no point. "One large-scale review, published in 2012, found that annual physical exams do nothing to improve a person’s disease and mortality risks" [1], while costing us billions of dollars, and taking doctors' time away from patients who actually need it. [1]: https://time.com/5095920/annual-physical-exam/ https://time.com/5095920/annual-physical-exam/ If people have health issues that need treating, then absolutely go see a doctor when you can. If it's simply been a year and they're not in a high-risk population and have no reason to believe anything has changed, then don't bother.
- jshaqaw 7y ago
  Friend I went in for an annual checkup despite being in apparent perfect health. Blood test results led to some other tests which led to the discovery of precancerous growths early enough to stop things. I’m in my mid 40s with a young family. Be careful with advice like this.

BurningFrog 7y ago

It's not really complicated. You cancel things until the virus is gone. Not by a time limit.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

jshevek 7y ago

If they make the test cheap enough, convenient enough, and in sufficient quantity, we can bring everything back online in a low risk manner long before we have a vaccine.

genrus00 7y ago
The test is already cheap enough. At least, in Europe.
AstralStorm 7y ago
The test has enough false positive rate to make it annoying to use in general population. It's being improved.

opwieurposiu 7y ago

The purpose of quarantine is not to save lives, the purpose is to expand the power of the state. This virus is a totalitarian dream come true. Agents of the state telling you who you can meet, where you can go, when you can leave the house. Expect the state to draw this one out as long as possible.

nazgulnarsil 7y ago

Time is critical. Vaccine research, time for hospital infrastructure to scale and establish procedure, research on novel mitigation methods (is there a particular wavelength of UV that is effective? Can we scale that to millions of handheld devices?), time for orgs working with vulnerable populations to change operations, time to train up additional staff, more spare capacity of areas less impacted to help out situations like Iran instead of worrying so much about their own, will summer give us a tailwind? etc etc. Essentially everyone who is already specialized in this area is getting slammed right now and alleviating their problems will be measured in lives saved.