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> When EVs are in the segment of rational-decision bound purchases, when they are "boring" I will deem them to have succeeded. Do you see something preventing

> When EVs are in the segment of rational-decision bound purchases, when they are "boring" I will deem them to have succeeded. Do you see something preventing or slowing this from happening? Why would society not adopt EV? Unless you’re discussing degree or rate of adoption, which I don’t care about, but your comment seems to imply doubt that EVs will ever succeed... which seems extremely short sighted and naive.

zulln 7y ago
> There really is a sweet spot in most people's disposable income [..] which is just around the corner: I interpret it totally different. I the parent like they think we are close to it.
ggm 7y ago
Absolutely not! I think EV's will succeed. The real signal to me will be effective competition across all segments of the car market. At the moment, the non-tesla cheap alternatives are drastically range limited in many cases, and also undersold and under-available. I've been reading blogs for 2 years waiting for the AU market to bust open, to no avail. My dream is an ioniq, or for Nissan to wise up and fix the problems with their battery model (rental?) or for a european manufacturer like VW to make good on the promise of their common-design chassis and break open the market. They aren't doing this yet for very good reasons, not dissimilar to why oil companies include a small number diversifying into Solar and Wind, and a lot who are selling as much oil as they can before it becomes a stranded asset: Most of the car production line is sunk cost around ICE. re-making ito EV implies a huge re-fabrication of the plant around EV not ICE and lots of sunk costs go up in smoke. If I was a BMW or VW or Toyota or Mazda exec, and my annual bonus depended on volume profit sales, standing up to propose a giant hole of capital be dug now, to save 15 years hence is .. well.. sensible but also not in my gene pool. The current generation of auto execs have no motivation to compete right now. They'd rather buy off the Californian clean air taxes by investing in Tesla shares to green-wash their needs, believing they can rush in at the end and steal the market. There is a tension between first mover advantage and second-system effect.

zulln 7y ago

> There really is a sweet spot in most people's disposable income [..] which is just around the corner: I interpret it totally different. I the parent like they think we are close to it.

ggm 7y ago

Absolutely not! I think EV's will succeed. The real signal to me will be effective competition across all segments of the car market. At the moment, the non-tesla cheap alternatives are drastically range limited in many cases, and also undersold and under-available. I've been reading blogs for 2 years waiting for the AU market to bust open, to no avail. My dream is an ioniq, or for Nissan to wise up and fix the problems with their battery model (rental?) or for a european manufacturer like VW to make good on the promise of their common-design chassis and break open the market. They aren't doing this yet for very good reasons, not dissimilar to why oil companies include a small number diversifying into Solar and Wind, and a lot who are selling as much oil as they can before it becomes a stranded asset: Most of the car production line is sunk cost around ICE. re-making ito EV implies a huge re-fabrication of the plant around EV not ICE and lots of sunk costs go up in smoke. If I was a BMW or VW or Toyota or Mazda exec, and my annual bonus depended on volume profit sales, standing up to propose a giant hole of capital be dug now, to save 15 years hence is .. well.. sensible but also not in my gene pool. The current generation of auto execs have no motivation to compete right now. They'd rather buy off the Californian clean air taxes by investing in Tesla shares to green-wash their needs, believing they can rush in at the end and steal the market. There is a tension between first mover advantage and second-system effect.