2 ms·
A quick, very low sample, back of the envelope calculation: 36,000 participants. Out of that, 1 case that was pretty close (underlying condition, medically-ind
by dchichkov 7y ago
A quick, very low sample, back of the envelope calculation: 36,000 participants. Out of that, 1 case that was pretty close (underlying condition, medically-induced coma). Assuming that 5% of population goes into similar state, we should expect more than (1 / 5%) = 20 people in milder states.
This would be 20 / 36,000 = 0.05% infected, in the sample consistent with RSA conference on Feb 28th. Assuming doubling rate of 5 days, today is March 10th. So ~ 0.5% infected. And log2(100 / 0.5) * 5 = 38. So, Yes. 28 days sounds about right.
Disclaimer: very small sample. Definitely not representative. Statistics is broken here. I'm not a medical field professional and not familiar with virology field. I'm a software engineer and researcher with interest in a number of fields. Exposure to the field limited to reading Nature, coding a bit for medical equipment and college-prep for medical school.