3 ms·

I totally understand the reaction is totally different from the flu. Here's my question: If we had real-time dashboards and 24/7 news coverage of every flu cas

by zaroth 7y ago

I totally understand the reaction is totally different from the flu. Here's my question: If we had real-time dashboards and 24/7 news coverage of every flu case, hospitalization, and flu death... would it look much different? I think it would actually look much worse.

TeMPOraL 7y ago
Well, yes? When was the last time a flu DDoSed medical systems of two countries to the point people are routinely refused treatment and die in the ICU corridors?
- zaroth 7y ago
  The WHO estimates that the 2009 H1N1 "swine flu" killed ~250,000. [1] Reported case mortality of H1N1 during the pandemic was similarly upwards of ~5% in some countries, [2] although later retrospective studies found that H1N1 was actually less lethal than a typical flu season (0.01-0.08%). [3] ICU utilization was very significant in some countries, e.g. 30 people per million admitted to the ICU [4]. (Italy is currently at 14 per million.) Hospitals definitely had to adopt "surge management" although in 2009 it often had as much to due with managing fear and panic as it did with getting people access to ventilators. [5] [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_India [3] - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemi... [4] - https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa0908481 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa0908481 [5] -https://www.reliasmedia.com/articles/136827-the-next-pandemic-hospital-management https://www.reliasmedia.com/articles/136827-the-next-pandemi...
dave_b 7y ago
Life Care Center in Washington had 120 residents a week ago. Now 19 of them are dead.[1] Does that sound like "just the flu?" There's plenty of evidence that this is much worse than the flu. R0 is >2, compared to 1.3. Mortality rate seems to be at least 5x higher. And those are low bounds. And this is all adding to the regular load on hospitals. It has observably overloaded hospital capacity in China and Italy. [1]: https://www.chron.com/news/education/article/Washington-virus-deaths-hit-22-3-more-from-15117719.php https://www.chron.com/news/education/article/Washington-viru...

by zaroth 7y ago

TeMPOraL 7y ago

Well, yes? When was the last time a flu DDoSed medical systems of two countries to the point people are routinely refused treatment and die in the ICU corridors?

zaroth 7y ago
The WHO estimates that the 2009 H1N1 "swine flu" killed ~250,000. [1] Reported case mortality of H1N1 during the pandemic was similarly upwards of ~5% in some countries, [2] although later retrospective studies found that H1N1 was actually less lethal than a typical flu season (0.01-0.08%). [3] ICU utilization was very significant in some countries, e.g. 30 people per million admitted to the ICU [4]. (Italy is currently at 14 per million.) Hospitals definitely had to adopt "surge management" although in 2009 it often had as much to due with managing fear and panic as it did with getting people access to ventilators. [5] [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_India [3] - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemi... [4] - https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa0908481 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa0908481 [5] -https://www.reliasmedia.com/articles/136827-the-next-pandemic-hospital-management https://www.reliasmedia.com/articles/136827-the-next-pandemi...

dave_b 7y ago

Life Care Center in Washington had 120 residents a week ago. Now 19 of them are dead.[1] Does that sound like "just the flu?" There's plenty of evidence that this is much worse than the flu. R0 is >2, compared to 1.3. Mortality rate seems to be at least 5x higher. And those are low bounds. And this is all adding to the regular load on hospitals. It has observably overloaded hospital capacity in China and Italy. [1]: https://www.chron.com/news/education/article/Washington-virus-deaths-hit-22-3-more-from-15117719.php https://www.chron.com/news/education/article/Washington-viru...