3 ms·

A death panel is just a political device. The actual problem is just prioritisation of a restricted supply in the face of excess demand. America is still aro

• davidw 7y ago
  Italy went from 0 known cases a month ago to 10,000+ today (with some recovered at this point) in less than a month. We'll be there far sooner, especially given the massive failure at the federal level to do much of anything, and given that the infections in the US are not evenly distributed, but are going to hit certain places first in larger numbers.
  • pixl97 7y ago
    Yes, but those first cases will just fill up the facilities, the cases after that will overflow the system.
    • davidw 7y ago
      That's what everyone is referring to.
• dchichkov 7y ago
  A quick, very low sample, back of the envelope calculation: 36,000 participants. Out of that, 1 case that was pretty close (underlying condition, medically-induced coma). Assuming that 5% of population goes into similar state, we should expect more than (1 / 5%) = 20 people in milder states. This would be 20 / 36,000 = 0.05% infected, in the sample consistent with RSA conference on Feb 28th. Assuming doubling rate of 5 days, today is March 10th. So ~ 0.5% infected. And log2(100 / 0.5) * 5 = 38. So, Yes. 28 days sounds about right. Disclaimer: very small sample. Definitely not representative. Statistics is broken here. I'm not a medical field professional and not familiar with virology field. I'm a software engineer and researcher with interest in a number of fields. Exposure to the field limited to reading Nature, coding a bit for medical equipment and college-prep for medical school.