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This graph showing how many days other countries are behind Italy's infection rate is quite alarming [1]. Especially the close alignment of most of the countri

This graph showing how many days other countries are behind Italy's infection rate is quite alarming [1]. Especially the close alignment of most of the countries. [1] https://ibb.co/gZDfgPy https://ibb.co/gZDfgPy Edit: Sorry, I didn't include the original source. I had taken a screenshot and couldn't find the original article. But the original data is from Mark J Handley [2] who is (non-medical) Professor of Networked Systems and part-time Roboticist at UCL. And the article I took the picture from is at [3] (I don't normally read the Daily Mail, I promise). [2] https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237119688578138112 https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237119688578138112 [3] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8095299/Man-underlying-health-conditions-80s-UKs-SIXTH-coronavirus-death.html https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8095299/Man-under...

ptx 7y ago
Excellently informative graph! I had been meaning to plot something just like it but got distracted by other things. Do you have a source for the data and/or the graph?
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  Here's the data provided by Johns Hopkins University; they collect WHO and CSSE reports. That's what you see on the popular JHU coronavirus map (though the repository is often few hours behind the map). https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
mazesc 7y ago
Do you have a source for this image/the data in this image? It's a great plot, but would like to confirm the veracity.
- bonzini 7y ago
  Here is an ugly chart I made using Johns Hopkins data: https://mobile.twitter.com/fagiolinux/status/1237059898304847874 https://mobile.twitter.com/fagiolinux/status/123705989830484... I used logarithmic scale and normalized per million people, so despite the ugliness the exponential growth is quite clear, even in countries with relatively few cases.
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  It's clear, right there in the data. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 I've been plotting this data myself for a few countries in EU over the past days, and the trend is plainly visible. Steps to reproduce the effect: 1) Load https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Confirmed.csv https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_... into your favourite data processing package (mine is Excel, here's the PowerQuery for data mangling I did, valid up to yesterday's cases: https://gist.github.com/TeMPOraL/2a26d3a1da551fb818efce87493c17f8 https://gist.github.com/TeMPOraL/2a26d3a1da551fb818efce87493...), 2) Select Italy and other countries of interest, and plot on a log scale.
asdfman123 7y ago
That's true, but it doesn't take into account the relative population of the various countries. Also, I'd love to see it broken down by city. I figure my city is at least a week ahead of Seattle.
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  Relative population doesn't matter at this stage. Relative population density might matter, a little.
- contravariant 7y ago
  Relative population only becomes important once a significant portion of the population is infected. Until that time you'd expect a roughly exponential increases from the original outbreak.
_Microft 7y ago
There is another page that shows the case numbers by country. https://mackuba.eu/corona/ https://mackuba.eu/corona/ A few countries look like they have reached an inflection point (see number of daily new cases going back for example) but that could be a problem of testing (or lack thereof).
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  If I'm to believe random comments on /r/CoronaVirus by people claiming to be working in healthcare (or related to such people), in Italy, they're not testing everyone in ICUs anymore, as there's little point or time (high prevalence of disease, completely saturated medical system). This implies the number of cases there is going to be underreported. Also note RE today's Italy stats - they're only partial, Lombardy (i.e. the region with most cases) isn't counted in yet.
  - jnurmine 7y ago
    Anaesthetist Jason van Schoor from UCL tweeted a rather long chain [1] from his friend in Italy and the situation seems to be indeed very, very bad. The pressure on the healthcare system from the virus seems to be simply massive and the system cannot keep up nor maintain a level of care for everyone who enters the system. [1] https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538 https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/123714289107769753...
    - TeMPOraL 7y ago
      For those who haven't seen it and don't want to read the whole thread (though they should!), the IMO most salient part: 5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed. 6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.
- 7y ago
chmars 7y ago
Testing is very limited in many countries. In Switzerland for example, testing is only done for very limited groups of persons with severe and for some medical staff. Broad testing never took place.
- Gibbon1 7y ago
  Testing in the US is just coming online after everyone started going around the CDC and developed their own tests. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-per-capita-chart-us-behind-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-covid-19... Scroll down to the table showing testing rates per million. Guangdong China: 2820 South Korea: 3692 Italy: 826 US: 5
- joquarky 7y ago
  Maybe a better metric would be % of ICU utilization.
Bombthecat 7y ago
There are still a ton of people who still think that it is just like the flu... Talked to a few people and i basically lost hope that we will handle the right way (until it is too late) i cant wrap my head around it.. Two countries went in lock down... Becuae it is just like the flu? Yeahhhh.... Right.
- lihaciudaniel 7y ago
  You're right but it could be people are getting over-reacting and thus causing more panic and more buying. It is more worry some economically speaking than medically.
- zaroth 7y ago
  I totally understand the reaction is totally different from the flu. Here's my question: If we had real-time dashboards and 24/7 news coverage of every flu case, hospitalization, and flu death... would it look much different? I think it would actually look much worse.
  - TeMPOraL 7y ago
    Well, yes? When was the last time a flu DDoSed medical systems of two countries to the point people are routinely refused treatment and die in the ICU corridors?
    - zaroth 7y ago
      The WHO estimates that the 2009 H1N1 "swine flu" killed ~250,000. [1] Reported case mortality of H1N1 during the pandemic was similarly upwards of ~5% in some countries, [2] although later retrospective studies found that H1N1 was actually less lethal than a typical flu season (0.01-0.08%). [3] ICU utilization was very significant in some countries, e.g. 30 people per million admitted to the ICU [4]. (Italy is currently at 14 per million.) Hospitals definitely had to adopt "surge management" although in 2009 it often had as much to due with managing fear and panic as it did with getting people access to ventilators. [5] [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_India [3] - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemi... [4] - https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa0908481 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa0908481 [5] -https://www.reliasmedia.com/articles/136827-the-next-pandemic-hospital-management https://www.reliasmedia.com/articles/136827-the-next-pandemi...
zaroth 7y ago
The bit of good news which isn't entirely clear from a log-scale chart of total number of cases, is that today's number of new cases in Italy is down significantly. New Cases: [1] March 6 - 640 March 7 - 1145 March 8 - 2314 March 9 - 1797 March 10 - 977 Alternative Data Source: [2] March 6 - 640 March 7 - 1145 March 8 - 1326 March 9 - 1598 March 10 - 529 In perhaps two more days we can say definitively that growth rate has peaked in Italy. [1] - Direct from daily government reports - e.g. http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1_1_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&p=dalministero&id=4182 http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1_1_1.jsp?lingua=... [2] - http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b0c68bce2cce478eaac82fe38d4138b1 http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  Lombardy wasn't counted in yet. Wait for tomorrow update. Source: https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fgh9v4/italy_reports_977_new_cases_of_coronavirus_and/fk4hr94/ https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fgh9v4/italy_r... and https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fgh9v4/italy_reports_977_new_cases_of_coronavirus_and/fk4hxde/ https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fgh9v4/italy_r....
  - zaroth 7y ago
    This shows at least some increase from Lombardy...? http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_4_file.pdf http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_4_file.pd... vs. yesterday http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_2_file.pdf http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_2_file.pd... And the day before... http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_0_file.pdf http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_0_file.pd... The drop in new Lombardy cases is precipitous, I agree, we'll know for sure in a couple days.
    - TeMPOraL 7y ago
      The comments I quoted say that today's Lombardy update is partial - deaths are counted in, but total cases not yet. That's apparently as of 3-4 hours ago, told in the Italian TV just after the numbers report. I.e. the first PDF you link doesn't have complete numbers per official government admission.

ptx 7y ago

Excellently informative graph! I had been meaning to plot something just like it but got distracted by other things. Do you have a source for the data and/or the graph?

TeMPOraL 7y ago
Here's the data provided by Johns Hopkins University; they collect WHO and CSSE reports. That's what you see on the popular JHU coronavirus map (though the repository is often few hours behind the map). https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

mazesc 7y ago

Do you have a source for this image/the data in this image? It's a great plot, but would like to confirm the veracity.

bonzini 7y ago
Here is an ugly chart I made using Johns Hopkins data: https://mobile.twitter.com/fagiolinux/status/1237059898304847874 https://mobile.twitter.com/fagiolinux/status/123705989830484... I used logarithmic scale and normalized per million people, so despite the ugliness the exponential growth is quite clear, even in countries with relatively few cases.
TeMPOraL 7y ago
It's clear, right there in the data. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 I've been plotting this data myself for a few countries in EU over the past days, and the trend is plainly visible. Steps to reproduce the effect: 1) Load https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Confirmed.csv https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_... into your favourite data processing package (mine is Excel, here's the PowerQuery for data mangling I did, valid up to yesterday's cases: https://gist.github.com/TeMPOraL/2a26d3a1da551fb818efce87493c17f8 https://gist.github.com/TeMPOraL/2a26d3a1da551fb818efce87493...), 2) Select Italy and other countries of interest, and plot on a log scale.

asdfman123 7y ago

That's true, but it doesn't take into account the relative population of the various countries. Also, I'd love to see it broken down by city. I figure my city is at least a week ahead of Seattle.

TeMPOraL 7y ago
Relative population doesn't matter at this stage. Relative population density might matter, a little.
contravariant 7y ago
Relative population only becomes important once a significant portion of the population is infected. Until that time you'd expect a roughly exponential increases from the original outbreak.

_Microft 7y ago

There is another page that shows the case numbers by country. https://mackuba.eu/corona/ https://mackuba.eu/corona/ A few countries look like they have reached an inflection point (see number of daily new cases going back for example) but that could be a problem of testing (or lack thereof).

TeMPOraL 7y ago
If I'm to believe random comments on /r/CoronaVirus by people claiming to be working in healthcare (or related to such people), in Italy, they're not testing everyone in ICUs anymore, as there's little point or time (high prevalence of disease, completely saturated medical system). This implies the number of cases there is going to be underreported. Also note RE today's Italy stats - they're only partial, Lombardy (i.e. the region with most cases) isn't counted in yet.
- jnurmine 7y ago
  Anaesthetist Jason van Schoor from UCL tweeted a rather long chain [1] from his friend in Italy and the situation seems to be indeed very, very bad. The pressure on the healthcare system from the virus seems to be simply massive and the system cannot keep up nor maintain a level of care for everyone who enters the system. [1] https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538 https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/123714289107769753...
  - TeMPOraL 7y ago
    For those who haven't seen it and don't want to read the whole thread (though they should!), the IMO most salient part: 5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed. 6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.
7y ago

chmars 7y ago

Testing is very limited in many countries. In Switzerland for example, testing is only done for very limited groups of persons with severe and for some medical staff. Broad testing never took place.

Gibbon1 7y ago
Testing in the US is just coming online after everyone started going around the CDC and developed their own tests. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-per-capita-chart-us-behind-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-covid-19... Scroll down to the table showing testing rates per million. Guangdong China: 2820 South Korea: 3692 Italy: 826 US: 5
joquarky 7y ago
Maybe a better metric would be % of ICU utilization.

Bombthecat 7y ago

There are still a ton of people who still think that it is just like the flu... Talked to a few people and i basically lost hope that we will handle the right way (until it is too late) i cant wrap my head around it.. Two countries went in lock down... Becuae it is just like the flu? Yeahhhh.... Right.

lihaciudaniel 7y ago
You're right but it could be people are getting over-reacting and thus causing more panic and more buying. It is more worry some economically speaking than medically.
zaroth 7y ago
I totally understand the reaction is totally different from the flu. Here's my question: If we had real-time dashboards and 24/7 news coverage of every flu case, hospitalization, and flu death... would it look much different? I think it would actually look much worse.
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  Well, yes? When was the last time a flu DDoSed medical systems of two countries to the point people are routinely refused treatment and die in the ICU corridors?
  - zaroth 7y ago
    The WHO estimates that the 2009 H1N1 "swine flu" killed ~250,000. [1] Reported case mortality of H1N1 during the pandemic was similarly upwards of ~5% in some countries, [2] although later retrospective studies found that H1N1 was actually less lethal than a typical flu season (0.01-0.08%). [3] ICU utilization was very significant in some countries, e.g. 30 people per million admitted to the ICU [4]. (Italy is currently at 14 per million.) Hospitals definitely had to adopt "surge management" although in 2009 it often had as much to due with managing fear and panic as it did with getting people access to ventilators. [5] [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_India https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_India [3] - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemi... [4] - https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa0908481 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa0908481 [5] -https://www.reliasmedia.com/articles/136827-the-next-pandemic-hospital-management https://www.reliasmedia.com/articles/136827-the-next-pandemi...

zaroth 7y ago

The bit of good news which isn't entirely clear from a log-scale chart of total number of cases, is that today's number of new cases in Italy is down significantly. New Cases: [1] March 6 - 640 March 7 - 1145 March 8 - 2314 March 9 - 1797 March 10 - 977 Alternative Data Source: [2] March 6 - 640 March 7 - 1145 March 8 - 1326 March 9 - 1598 March 10 - 529 In perhaps two more days we can say definitively that growth rate has peaked in Italy. [1] - Direct from daily government reports - e.g. http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1_1_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&p=dalministero&id=4182 http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1_1_1.jsp?lingua=... [2] - http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b0c68bce2cce478eaac82fe38d4138b1 http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

TeMPOraL 7y ago
Lombardy wasn't counted in yet. Wait for tomorrow update. Source: https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fgh9v4/italy_reports_977_new_cases_of_coronavirus_and/fk4hr94/ https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fgh9v4/italy_r... and https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fgh9v4/italy_reports_977_new_cases_of_coronavirus_and/fk4hxde/ https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fgh9v4/italy_r....
- zaroth 7y ago
  This shows at least some increase from Lombardy...? http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_4_file.pdf http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_4_file.pd... vs. yesterday http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_2_file.pdf http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_2_file.pd... And the day before... http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_0_file.pdf http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_0_file.pd... The drop in new Lombardy cases is precipitous, I agree, we'll know for sure in a couple days.
  - TeMPOraL 7y ago
    The comments I quoted say that today's Lombardy update is partial - deaths are counted in, but total cases not yet. That's apparently as of 3-4 hours ago, told in the Italian TV just after the numbers report. I.e. the first PDF you link doesn't have complete numbers per official government admission.