Agreed. For the country as a whole, I have it at 20 days until we run out of beds. Like Italy, seems reasonable to expect some areas will hit it sooner. Here

Agreed. For the country as a whole, I have it at 20 days until we run out of beds. Like Italy, seems reasonable to expect some areas will hit it sooner. Here's my growth equation: BedsNeeded = CurrentCases * DailyGrowthRate ^ DaysOfGrowth * SevereAndCriticalRate 708 = CurrentCases, the number of COVID-19 cases in the US as of March 9, 2020. [1] 1.6 = DailyGrowthRate, Number of today's cases / Number of yesterday's cases. [2] 20 = DaysOfGrowth, how many days to run the simulation. 0.1 = SevereAndCriticalRate, the percentage of cases requiring a hospital bed. [3] 855,919 = BedsNeeded This is based on the above-quoted 2.77 beds per 1000 people, and a US population of 327.2M people, for 906,344 beds available. [1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [2] Ibid, rough average of last week's growth rate [3] Rough guess from above comments and other reading. Working sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15CRanm0MHyappT_3J1qclzPzSCoEw2ucVlzvT3euB2w/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15CRanm0MHyappT_3J1qc...