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I am struggling to reconcile this story with the numbers of deaths so far vs the number of deaths in any given year. A french infectious disease specialist ment
by cm2187 7y ago
I am struggling to reconcile this story with the numbers of deaths so far vs the number of deaths in any given year. A french infectious disease specialist mentioned that 2017 had been a bad year for infectious respiratory diseases in France, with over 60,000 additional deaths in winter, to the point that it affected life expectancy tables [1]. I don’t remember any mention of hospitals being overwhelmed and doing war-time triage then.
It is possible than one hospital may be overwhelmed, but surely it cannot be representative of hospitals across Italy or even a region.
[1] for french speakers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pb8Q1yr2cjo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pb8Q1yr2cjo
- hef19898 7y agoWhich shows how damn important context is. Without 100% testing (which I don't think to be necessary) for COVID-19 and comaprative baselines case numbers aren't tellig us anything. Without the proper domain expertise to actually interpret the numbers that is. So whithout that particular domain expertise, epidemilogy and virology, I don't interpret the numbers or build models, rather I believe the experts to make sense out of them.
- exolymph 7y agoFlu season is accounted for in normal hospital beds and other capacity planning. A sudden huge surge in need for ICU care is not accounted for.
- cm2187 7y agoBut my point is that surely these additional 60,000 people (and probably many more who recovered) must have gone through ICU.
- MLpractitioner 7y agoNot necessarily, and maybe they didn't need artificial ventilation which is the big deal here.
- gpderetta 7y agoAlso, flu didn't go away. covid-19 is in addition to the stress to the health system caused by flu (and all other diseases) and in a very short time.
- jonplackett 7y agoand also, even at the very lowest end, COVID-19's death rate is an order of magnitude more than Flu (0.1% vs 1%)
- gioele 7y ago> It is possible than one hospital may be overwhelmed, but surely it cannot be representative of hospitals across Italy or even a region. Sadly, it is representative of hospitals across all northern Italy: https://www.ilpost.it/2020/03/08/pesenti-emergenza-ospedali-lombardia/ https://www.ilpost.it/2020/03/08/pesenti-emergenza-ospedali-... https://www.ilpost.it/2020/03/09/coronavirus-terapia-intensiva/ https://www.ilpost.it/2020/03/09/coronavirus-terapia-intensi... ("Affollamento e scelte difficili")
- jonplackett 7y agoRemember with Flu, the doctors and nurses can't get it, and can't spread it. The danger with this is that all the doctors get sick/quarantined and then no-one gets treated.
- tomnj 7y agoAnyone can get the flu, even those with flu shots
- jonplackett 7y agoThey are much less likely to get it after having the flu shot.
- tomnj 7y agoAbsolutely, but to say medical staff can’t get or spread flu is false
- jonplackett 7y agoBy making that point though, you deliberately making an argument to support the 'it's just like flu' theory of not worrying. Which is a flawed viewpoint.
- tomnj 7y agoI’m 100% not making that point, nor do I believe it
- jonplackett 7y agoOk. In that case let’s stop arguing and be friends :)
- tomnj 7y ago
- Gibbon1 7y ago> I don’t remember any mention of hospitals being overwhelmed and doing war-time triage then. I remember my nurse friends freaking out in 2017 because they were having trouble dealing with the extra flu cases.