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Now long would you maintain that quarantine? Is there some amount of time after which the virus will go away? Any call for drastic measures, even when drastic

by baddox 7y ago

Now long would you maintain that quarantine? Is there some amount of time after which the virus will go away? Any call for drastic measures, even when drastic measures seem like common sense to some people, need to explain why the measures should be implemented and under what circumstances they should be lifted.

Jedd 7y ago
I concur with GP - but here in Australia we're run by fantasists, so it's not going to happen here either. > Now long would you maintain that quarantine? I'd suggest start with 2 weeks, and reassess after 10 days. I note that in TFA Italy's administration extended this (initially) out to the 3rd of April, which seems like a reasonable timeframe. Incarcerated people rioted ... and a churlish part of my brain suggests that's just to be expected, but each nation state can learn from, and put more effort into educating than, the earlier pioneers. > Is there some amount of time after which the virus will go away? We don't really know - but it sounds like a rhetorical question(?). I know that I'd be happy with a two week lockdown - option to renew - here in AU ... especially if it reduced my chance of dying. The numbers cited in TFA are suggesting a 3% mortality rate now, and massive propagation rates and embarrassingly poor treatment / survival rates even in a first world country early on in the pandemic cycle. > Any call for drastic measures, even when drastic measures seem like common sense to some people, need to explain why the measures should be implemented and under what circumstances they should be lifted. I'd invert your usage of the precautionary principle and ask, given what we know so far, why the default response isn't to shut down non-essential travel and public events for a couple of weeks. I mean, what's your acceptable ratio of dead people : inconvenienced live people?
- LoSboccacc 7y ago
  most people outside of the previous red zone is uncaring about the new emergency restrictions step 1 should have been to bring military in the streets to enforce the thing, because police is both decimated by the virus and overwhelmed from the new responsibilities and cannot handle what's happening
  - ithkuil 7y ago
    perhaps there is no need to go to extremes. Where I live I already have to provide my babysitter a signed letter where I certify that she comes to work here. She's from a different township (comune) and the police could fine her if caught without that document. It's not going to stop 100% of people from moving around, but even it this reduces the spread by a few % it's already a big improvement; even reducing the daily rate from 21% to 20% can have a 20x effect on total cases over a year.
    - LoSboccacc 7y ago
      lol I'm not advocating treating it as a war zone, just calling in the military to do police work
    - LoSboccacc 7y ago
      https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/20/europe/italy-military-coronavirus-intl/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/20/europe/italy-military-cor... so I guess I was right since the beginning
- cylinder 7y ago
  The response here in Australia has been so pathetic. Especially from the private sector.
grey-area 7y ago
They are undertaken so that the health service is not overwhelmed with cases. When that happens (as in Italy), you need to triage infected and let some number of people die, who otherwise would not have died. So it is best avoided. They're lifted after most of the population has already been infected and the disease has run its course (as in China).
- arethuza 7y ago
  Presumably as soon as the number of patients requiring ICU goes above the number of available ICU beds then those kind of measures must be taken - even though its clearly a pretty terrible choice for someone to have to make.
  - greedo 7y ago
    And at that point it's too late.
adrianN 7y ago
Until we have a vaccine or at least better treatment options.

by baddox 7y ago

Jedd 7y ago

I concur with GP - but here in Australia we're run by fantasists, so it's not going to happen here either. > Now long would you maintain that quarantine? I'd suggest start with 2 weeks, and reassess after 10 days. I note that in TFA Italy's administration extended this (initially) out to the 3rd of April, which seems like a reasonable timeframe. Incarcerated people rioted ... and a churlish part of my brain suggests that's just to be expected, but each nation state can learn from, and put more effort into educating than, the earlier pioneers. > Is there some amount of time after which the virus will go away? We don't really know - but it sounds like a rhetorical question(?). I know that I'd be happy with a two week lockdown - option to renew - here in AU ... especially if it reduced my chance of dying. The numbers cited in TFA are suggesting a 3% mortality rate now, and massive propagation rates and embarrassingly poor treatment / survival rates even in a first world country early on in the pandemic cycle. > Any call for drastic measures, even when drastic measures seem like common sense to some people, need to explain why the measures should be implemented and under what circumstances they should be lifted. I'd invert your usage of the precautionary principle and ask, given what we know so far, why the default response isn't to shut down non-essential travel and public events for a couple of weeks. I mean, what's your acceptable ratio of dead people : inconvenienced live people?

LoSboccacc 7y ago
most people outside of the previous red zone is uncaring about the new emergency restrictions step 1 should have been to bring military in the streets to enforce the thing, because police is both decimated by the virus and overwhelmed from the new responsibilities and cannot handle what's happening
- ithkuil 7y ago
  perhaps there is no need to go to extremes. Where I live I already have to provide my babysitter a signed letter where I certify that she comes to work here. She's from a different township (comune) and the police could fine her if caught without that document. It's not going to stop 100% of people from moving around, but even it this reduces the spread by a few % it's already a big improvement; even reducing the daily rate from 21% to 20% can have a 20x effect on total cases over a year.
  - LoSboccacc 7y ago
    lol I'm not advocating treating it as a war zone, just calling in the military to do police work
  - LoSboccacc 7y ago
    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/20/europe/italy-military-coronavirus-intl/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/20/europe/italy-military-cor... so I guess I was right since the beginning
cylinder 7y ago
The response here in Australia has been so pathetic. Especially from the private sector.

grey-area 7y ago

They are undertaken so that the health service is not overwhelmed with cases. When that happens (as in Italy), you need to triage infected and let some number of people die, who otherwise would not have died. So it is best avoided. They're lifted after most of the population has already been infected and the disease has run its course (as in China).

arethuza 7y ago
Presumably as soon as the number of patients requiring ICU goes above the number of available ICU beds then those kind of measures must be taken - even though its clearly a pretty terrible choice for someone to have to make.
- greedo 7y ago
  And at that point it's too late.

adrianN 7y ago

Until we have a vaccine or at least better treatment options.