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It's great what tesla has done to push electric vehicles to the point of a status symbol, and prove their viability as an every day driving car. Tesla is a rem
by ltbarcly3 7y ago
It's great what tesla has done to push electric vehicles to the point of a status symbol, and prove their viability as an every day driving car.
Tesla is a remarkable company, but they are terrible at building and delivering cars, which is very much the primary competence needed to succeed as a company that sells cars. Their production rates have dramatically trailed their promises, and while they are valued at around $160B, they are hoping to build about 500k cars this year. Volkswagon builds that many cars every 2 weeks or so, and actually makes a profit on each car, as does Toyota (10M cars each, per year, for VW and Toyota, 7M for GM and Hyundai, per year). Tesla is worth more than any two other car companies (other than Toyota) while producing around 5% as many cars as any one of them, if Tesla hits their goals.
Success as as a car company is more about being able to produce cars that people want -- efficiently, than it is about designing cars that people want. Otherwise Lamborghini would be selling more cars than all the other car companies combined, if posters and dreams could somehow translate into units shipped without regard to price or ability to actually build cars in the necessary volume. The two huge success stories in cars are Ford, who invented the assembly line, and Toyota, who invented Kanban, both of which dramatically increased the quality while decreasing the labor input of manufacturing cars. Tesla, with all their claims of automation, produces cars using about 1/3 the automation of Toyota today (9 vs 24 cars for full-time employee per year) while using accounting tricks to claim large per car margins, while showing a large loss using standard accounting practices.
I think if I had to make a guess, Tesla will be in the same chapter in the history of cars as DeLorian and Duesenberg.
- briffle 7y agoTesla is just starting to ramp up their gigafactories. The one in Reno is still only 20-25% built. Plus china, new one in Germany, and rumors of one soon to be announced in Brazil.
- ltbarcly3 7y agoEven the factory they have now is not very well automated and it shows in the price and their ability to deliver cars at volume. Maybe they will improve that over time, but that's like saying maybe RedHat will make a desktop OS that displaces Windows and OSX, it's possible if they do the hard part - which they haven't been able to do so far. The hardest part about being a car company is building the cars.
- SECProto 7y ago> I think if I had to make a guess, Tesla will be in the same chapter in the history of cars as DeLorian and Duesenberg. I don't actually know what chapter that would be. Delorean was around for 3 years, and made ~9000 cars. Duesenberg (of which I had never heard) made race cars, somewhere under 1000... There really isn't a good comparison to be made with Tesla.
- ltbarcly3 7y agoI picked Duesenberg because in their day they had about the same market share that Tesla has today.
- 9nGQluzmnq3M 7y agoDuesenberg was a race & luxury car manufacturer, and their heyday was in the roaring twenties. A lot has changed in 100 years.
- ltbarcly3 7y agoAnd tesla isn't making luxury cars? Their cheapest car is significantly more expensive than the cheapest mercedes!