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> Maybe in 4-5 years, AMD will be the dominant player. But it's still too early to call them this. Highly unlikely. This is AMD's prime time because Intel scre

> Maybe in 4-5 years, AMD will be the dominant player. But it's still too early to call them this. Highly unlikely. This is AMD's prime time because Intel screwed up, and they've peaked at 15%. I predict Intel to gain the pace in a few years and dominate the market once again.

deleted 7y ago
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milsorgen 7y ago
Perhaps but I'm not so sure we may see things play out in AMD's favor since they are fabless but Intel remains shackled to ever more costly and difficult fabrication. Either way they did hire Jim Keller and I am excited to see what he can do with their resources and technology.
- maallooc 7y ago
  I disagree. Intel’s capacity needs are huge, to the point where the benefits of outsourcing just can’t happen. Also, it’s not a good idea to rely on others, because they can screw up. Remember 28nm and the graphics fiasco? Sure, the costs will be high and there will be some risks of an in-house fabs but it’s Intel. They’re better off with it.
  - theandrewbailey 7y ago
    > Also, it’s not a good idea to rely on others, because they can screw up. Remember 28nm and the graphics fiasco? How long has Intel had 10nm on it's roadmap? I think their earliest roadmaps said it should have happened 5 years ago.
    - maallooc 7y ago
      https://en.wikichip.org/w/images/thumb/5/5c/7nm_densities.svg/1050px-7nm_densities.svg.png https://en.wikichip.org/w/images/thumb/5/5c/7nm_densities.sv... Because their 10nm is denser than tsmc's so called 7nm?
      - roblabla 7y ago
        TSMC has a new process called N7P EUV that has a higher density than Intel's 10nm process[0], in production since last year. They also are on track to have their N5 process in production next year, which is supposed to have an even higher density[1]. Obviously, N5 isn't in prod yet so this is just a roadmap, maybe they'll hit roadblocks like intel here. But still, it's disingenuous to claim that Intel is trying something that wasn't achieved by TSMC already. TSMC has already beaten Intel on transistor density fair and square. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_nm_process#7_nm_process_nodes_and_process_offerings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_nm_process#7_nm_process_node... [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_nm_process#5_nm_process_nodes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_nm_process#5_nm_process_node...
        maallooc 7y ago
        N7+ EUV is 1.2x denser but also it's yield is horrible according to sources. https://wccftech.com/tsmc-7nm-euv-yield-alleged/ https://wccftech.com/tsmc-7nm-euv-yield-alleged/ And you can't compare tsmc vs Intel directly because their target chip size is different. Intel produces chips size of avg. 180mm² while tsmc and others aim for under 80mm². Even the industry leader producing small chips are suffering in yield for ranges of 113MTr/mm². Intel producing huge chips with 100.76MTr/mm² density even without EUV means they are going through the right way. With those knoledges on non-EUV nodes I expect Intel to be on par (which it already is) or be superior than others in about 1-2 years. https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/File:5nm_densities.svg https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/File:5nm_densities.svg People having insight to this industry doesn't think Intel has ever been left behind in this race towards density. Fanboys and regular people influenced by the media does.
yxhuvud 7y ago
Why do you think they have peaked when Intel hasn't come up with an answer yet?

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

milsorgen 7y ago

Perhaps but I'm not so sure we may see things play out in AMD's favor since they are fabless but Intel remains shackled to ever more costly and difficult fabrication. Either way they did hire Jim Keller and I am excited to see what he can do with their resources and technology.

maallooc 7y ago
I disagree. Intel’s capacity needs are huge, to the point where the benefits of outsourcing just can’t happen. Also, it’s not a good idea to rely on others, because they can screw up. Remember 28nm and the graphics fiasco? Sure, the costs will be high and there will be some risks of an in-house fabs but it’s Intel. They’re better off with it.
- theandrewbailey 7y ago
  > Also, it’s not a good idea to rely on others, because they can screw up. Remember 28nm and the graphics fiasco? How long has Intel had 10nm on it's roadmap? I think their earliest roadmaps said it should have happened 5 years ago.
  - maallooc 7y ago
    https://en.wikichip.org/w/images/thumb/5/5c/7nm_densities.svg/1050px-7nm_densities.svg.png https://en.wikichip.org/w/images/thumb/5/5c/7nm_densities.sv... Because their 10nm is denser than tsmc's so called 7nm?
    - roblabla 7y ago
      TSMC has a new process called N7P EUV that has a higher density than Intel's 10nm process[0], in production since last year. They also are on track to have their N5 process in production next year, which is supposed to have an even higher density[1]. Obviously, N5 isn't in prod yet so this is just a roadmap, maybe they'll hit roadblocks like intel here. But still, it's disingenuous to claim that Intel is trying something that wasn't achieved by TSMC already. TSMC has already beaten Intel on transistor density fair and square. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_nm_process#7_nm_process_nodes_and_process_offerings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7_nm_process#7_nm_process_node... [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_nm_process#5_nm_process_nodes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_nm_process#5_nm_process_node...
      - maallooc 7y ago
        N7+ EUV is 1.2x denser but also it's yield is horrible according to sources. https://wccftech.com/tsmc-7nm-euv-yield-alleged/ https://wccftech.com/tsmc-7nm-euv-yield-alleged/ And you can't compare tsmc vs Intel directly because their target chip size is different. Intel produces chips size of avg. 180mm² while tsmc and others aim for under 80mm². Even the industry leader producing small chips are suffering in yield for ranges of 113MTr/mm². Intel producing huge chips with 100.76MTr/mm² density even without EUV means they are going through the right way. With those knoledges on non-EUV nodes I expect Intel to be on par (which it already is) or be superior than others in about 1-2 years. https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/File:5nm_densities.svg https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/File:5nm_densities.svg People having insight to this industry doesn't think Intel has ever been left behind in this race towards density. Fanboys and regular people influenced by the media does.

yxhuvud 7y ago

Why do you think they have peaked when Intel hasn't come up with an answer yet?